How much worse has Kevin Love been this season?
By James Glenn
Dec 12, 2012; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves power forward Kevin Love (42) asks for a foul call against the Denver Nuggets during the fourth quarter at Target Center. Timberwolves won 108-105. Mandatory Credit: Greg Smith-USA TODAY Sports
How much worse has Kevin Love been this season? There’s been a lot of talk lately about Kevin Love and his Super Star status for the Timberwolves, good or bad. I’ve heard quite a few ‘talking heads’ say “he will be fine, he’s just getting healthy.” While that could very well be true, the problem is that if you’re a “Super Star” you don’t get to use that as an excuse.
Kobe Bryant had a fractured finger, bad knee, bad wrist, etc… last season and he missed little to no games while playing at a high (very high) level. Dwayne Wade missed games last season, quite a few actually and he finished 3rd in the ‘Simple Rating’ formula, (The main components of the ‘Simple Ratings’ are a production measure (a variant of the PER rating) for a player’s own stats versus his opponent while he is on the court, as well as the court/off court plus minus).
Thoughts on the ‘Simple Rating’ better indicator of a player’s production than the more popular PER (Player Efficiency Rating), and it combines +/-. By including +/- numbers, you can get a better indicator of the players’ impact to his team. To give you an indication as to where Love is, in terms of the NBA, here are the top 8 players in the NBA in ‘Simple Rating’. Also included, are the current 13 active Timberwolves.
Production |
On Court/Off Court
Simple
Player
MinOwnOppNetOnOffNetRating Durant
81%
29.3
8.5
20.8
13
-4.5
17
19.5
Bryant
79%
26.8
11
16.3
7.5
-16
23
18.6
West
70%
21.3
10
11.4
5.4
-11
16
12.9
James
77%
30.5
15
15.8
6.4
0
6.4
12.6
Anthony
61%
26.7
16
10.7
11
-1.7
13
11.5
T.Young
73%
18.6
14
4.9
2.3
-16
19
9.4
Noah
83%
19.1
13
5.9
4.6
-11
15
9
Ginobili
41%
18.3
11
7.8
13
2.2
11
8.8
Budinger
13%
17.9
11
7.1
9.9
0.4
9.5
7.9
Kirilenko
62%
20.1
12
8.6
3.3
-1.1
4.4
7.2
Barea
36%
17.6
11
6.9
5.3
-0.4
5.8
6.5
Pekovic
60%
18.9
14
5.2
3.7
-1.5
5.2
5.2
Love
39%
19.7
16
4.2
3.4
0.5
2.8
3.7
Williams
31%
14.7
11
3.6
2.8
1.1
1.7
3
Shved
55%
13.4
11
2.2
2.1
1
1.1
1.8
Cunningham
46%
15.2
12
2.7
-2
4.3
-5.9
-0.2
Rubio
3%
17.4
13
4.5
-10
2
-12
-0.9
Ridnour
65%
15.4
22
-6.6
1.7
1.6
0.1
-4.3
Stiemsma
22%
7
16
-9.2
-2
2.5
-4.2
-7.5
Roy
11%
8.4
20
-12
2.4
1.5
0.8
-7.7
Amundson
8%
3.9
18
-14
-7
2.4
-9.6
-12.5
While this article isn’t intended to be on the Timberwolves as a whole, this article is to focus on where the Wolves star ranks in the NBA so far this season. Currently at this point of the season, Kevin Love has a ‘Simple Rating’ of 3.7. In contrast to last season, Love had a ‘Simple Rating’ of 9.8 and was 12th in the NBA. Through Love’s NBA career, Wolves fans have seen Love grow by leaps and bounds over his 1st 4 years. Now in his 5th year, after signing his ‘BIG’ contract, his numbers are not anywhere near his contract would indicate he should be.
Season |
PER
TS%
eFG%
TRB%
AST%
TOV%
USG%
ORtg
DRtg
OWS
DWS
WS
WS/48
2008-09
18.3
0.538
0.461
21
6.8
12.4
21
112
109
3.4
1.9
5.3
0.12
2009-10
20.7
0.549
0.478
21.5
12.9
13.2
22.4
113
109
3.4
1.5
4.9
0.14
2010-11
24.3
0.593
0.513
23.6
11.8
11.1
22.9
123
108
9
2.5
11.4
0.21
2011-12
25.4
0.568
0.497
19
10
9.2
28.8
117
104
7.6
2.3
10
0.22
2012-13
18.3
0.461
0.39
22.2
12.2
10.3
28.8
100
99
0.3
1
1.3
0.12
Career
22.2
0.558
0.484
21.4
10.5
11.1
24.1
116
107
23.7
9.2
32.9
0.18
His WS (win shares) are downright pitiful so far this season. Both his TS(True Shooting) and eFG (effective Field goal) percentages are the lowest in his NBA career. I know this season is young, and there is time, but so far, none of these numbers are encouraging. There are a lot of factors that can possibly go into the decline of these numbers: all of the injuries to both Love and the team, new personnel, lack of practice time due to injuries, the whole team has yet to play together due to injuries. All of those reasons could be used as valid explanations to his ugly shooting, BUT, when you want to be the number 1, ’The Go to Guy’, there should be no excuses, ‘Go to Guys’ just go out and perform.
The ‘Simple Rating’ that was highlighted above, uses the PER as part of its overall calculation. Here is a look at straight PER and were Kevin Love ranks in the NBA.
Rk |
Player
PER
TS%
eFG%
TRB%
AST%
TOV%
USG%
ORtg
DRtg
WS
WS/48
1
LeBron James
29.6
0.607
0.579
13.9
34.1
11.3
29.7
121
102
5.7
0.28
2
Kevin Durant
28.3
0.652
0.565
12.3
19.9
13.8
29.2
122
101
6.6
0.28
3
Chris Paul
26
0.586
0.521
6.4
45.8
13.9
21.7
126
98
5.9
0.30
4
Carmelo Anthony
25.9
0.592
0.535
9.9
10.4
9.7
34.1
114
107
3.7
0.20
5
Kobe Bryant
25.5
0.594
0.529
7.6
25.6
12.5
32.8
117
107
5.2
0.22
6
Tim Duncan
25
0.55
0.501
19
14.7
9.3
26
111
94
4
0.22
7
Nene Hilario
23.7
0.613
0.523
14.5
22.6
16.6
25.3
114
101
1.4
0.21
8
James Harden
23.5
0.604
0.505
6.6
24
14.3
28.4
116
106
4.5
0.21
9
Andray Blatche
23.3
0.538
0.494
16.9
10.2
12.1
26.9
109
101
2.1
0.17
10
Blake Griffin
23.3
0.562
0.539
16
16.9
10.6
25.5
113
96
4.3
0.22
57
Matt Barnes
18.3
0.604
0.579
11.5
8.2
12.4
18.5
117
98
2.9
0.20
58
Goran Dragic
18.3
0.552
0.511
5.2
31
14.5
21.2
112
109
2.3
0.13
59
Kevin Love
18.3
0.461
0.39
22.2
12.2
10.3
28.8
100
99
1.3
0.12
60
Kevin Martin
18.3
0.65
0.572
5.1
8.4
10.1
20.7
125
108
3.3
0.19
61
Thaddeus Young
18.3
0.548
0.535
11.6
7.5
8.9
19.6
110
103
2.9
0.13
He ranks 59! 59th in the NBA in PER. We talked about him being injured, so was Nene and he is 7th. Can the 18.3 PER ranking change? Sure it can, there is no doubt about that. Kevin will need to get his shot to start falling if he wants to get this 59th rank PER back to where it was last season. Last season, Kevin Love ranked 6th in PER at 25.4 in the NBA.
There was talk about Kevin Love being ‘The Best Power Forward’ in the NBA coming into this season. The production of PF’s (power forward) in the league would go to show Kevin Love is not even close to being in the running for ‘Best Power Forward’ in the NBA at this point of the season.
|
MPG
MIN%
USG%
TOr
FT%
2P%
3P%
TS%
PPG
RPG
TRB%
AST%
SPG
BPG
VI
Andrea Bargnani
32.6
66.2
26.2
0.096
0.828
0.431
0.319
0.485
16
4.3
7.8
7.6
0.57
0.71
5.5
Anthony Davis
31.2
64.1
22.3
0.11
0.841
0.5
0
0.557
14.5
8.4
16
4.7
1.2
1.8
5.9
Blake Griffin
31.8
66.1
25.6
0.106
0.623
0.545
0.2
0.562
18
8.7
16.1
17
1.52
0.66
9.9
Byron Mullens
30.8
63.3
20.7
0.108
0.709
0.412
0.303
0.455
11.6
7.8
14.2
8.3
0.85
0.85
6.7
Carlos Boozer
29.2
60.7
24.7
0.122
0.681
0.469
0
0.494
13.7
9.2
18.2
12.8
0.78
0.48
8.7
David Lee
37.6
77.2
23.5
0.127
0.819
0.538
0
0.576
19.9
11.1
16.5
17.4
0.93
0.24
9.9
David West
33.6
69.3
24.8
0.098
0.704
0.504
0
0.53
17.4
8.1
13.3
16.2
0.61
0.96
8.6
Glen Davis
32.8
68
25.8
0.109
0.747
0.451
0
0.488
16
7.9
13.6
10.1
1.04
0.68
7.6
Jason Maxiell
26.4
54.3
15.9
0.133
0.663
0.453
0
0.497
8
6
12.9
3.4
0.45
1.48
4.4
Jason Thompson
29.6
61.2
17.5
0.111
0.712
0.51
0
0.54
11.1
7.9
15.2
7.5
0.61
1.04
6.6
Josh Smith
35.1
71.8
27
0.14
0.51
0.462
0.364
0.482
17
8.3
13.7
18.4
1.44
2.08
9.1
Kenneth Faried
29
60
18.5
0.1
0.587
0.527
0
0.549
12.2
10
19.1
4.3
0.97
0.97
6.4
Kevin Love
34.7
71.7
29
0.1
0.69
0.42
0.23
0.46
19
14
22.3
12.4
0.8
0.5
9.8
LaMarcus Aldridge
37.9
77.4
26.8
0.089
0.818
0.472
0
0.517
21.1
8.3
12.8
11.3
1.08
1.32
7.7
LeBron James
37.4
77.7
29.9
0.113
0.703
0.566
0.429
0.607
25.6
8.7
14.1
34.4
1.38
0.88
12.3
Taking every PF that averages over 29 MPG (Minutes per Game), Love is near the bottom in almost every shooting category. More telling he has the lowest TS% (True Shooting) among all of the PF. Love is #1 in TRB% (True Rebounding), but because he doesn’t block shots or have any steals, he would really seem to be a 1 trick pony when you look at the numbers. In the NBA, only 3 players with at least 25 games played have a higher TRB%.
|
TRB%
Anderson Varejao
23.3
Reggie Evans
23.2
J.J. Hickson
22.3
Kevin Love
22.2
Is there time for Kevin Love to improve his shot? Yes, there is no doubt about that, and that would seem to be the only thing missing from his game right now. Due to his injury and the way it happened and the comments made to Yahoo, it’s becoming more difficult to be patient with Love because of those factors and his who contract debacle still trickling over from last season. In the past, he has complained he doesn’t have the supporting cast. This season that is no longer a valid excuse. With 31% of the season gone (26 games), there is time (56 games). In a tough Western Conference the sooner Kevin Love can get his shot going, the better off this team will be for a team that had high hopes entering the year.