Maybe we need NBA drafting for dummies. While this would have been more appropriate for David Kahn, it may still be of use to the current POBO (President of Basketball Operations) Flip Saunders. The NBA draft isn’t an exact science. There is no sure thing. Granted there are those few players who come along that you just know will be a star. But, those players are few and far between.
So, what is a franchise to do with all of the other players? The 90%-95% of the rest of the players to chose from. Sure there are the measurables, there is a litany of tests and interviews. There are individual workouts and background checks. There is really no stone left unturned. Franchises will do their due diligence to the fullest degree. Rightfully so, these franchises are about to invest millions of dollars into these players, and they just want to make the best and most sound decisions they possibly can.
Franchises can be made through the draft and sustained for years. GM’s can look like a genius, or well, not even close to a genius. Some GM’s have lost jobs because of having bad drafts, David Kahn is a great example of this.
So what is a franchise to do after all of the information has been gathered and there is just no clear cut choice as to who is a better player. What happens when the “War Room” is split on who to take? What happens when 2 players both fit a need and are equal in the eyes of a franchise?
Do they flip a coin? Again see David Kahn’s drafting history. It would seem Kahn possibly employed throwing a dart at a list of names and went with whatever.
With an age limit imposed in the NBA it does make is easier to track the progression of talent. That allows this system to based on data from the masses, rather than individualistic evaluations of players.
In an effort to help these teams out, I’ve provided an easy to use system that could be used to break the ties between players. It’s a pretty simple system, just figure out what college conference produces the most players currently in the NBA. Then, find out how many schools in that conference produced NBA talent. It would show, while at college, the players would have played against tougher competition on a regular basis. Then figure out the average number of players from that conference on NBA teams.
|# Schools W/ Players Avg. # NBA|
|Conference (# teams) NBA Players in NBA Players/Team|
|Atlantic Coast (12) 11 64 5.3|
|Pacific 12 (12) 12 53 4.4|
|Southeastern (14) 12 57 4.1|
|Big 12 (10) 9 40 4.0|
|Big East (15) 14 53 3.5|
|Big Ten (12) 9 25 2.1|
|Mountain West (9) 6 12 1.3|
|West Coast (9) 4 8 0.9|
|Atlantic 10 (16) 10 13 0.8|
|Conference USA (12) 2 6 0.5|
|Colonial (11) 4 4 0.4|
|Sun Belt (11) 2 3 0.3|
|Horizon (9) 2 2 0.2|
|Great West (5) 1 1 0.2|
|Metro Atlantic (10) 2 2 0.2|
|Missouri Valley (10 1 2 0.2|
|Big Sky (11) 2 2 0.2|
|Ohio Valley (12) 2 2 0.2|
|Southern (12) 2 2 0.2|
|Ivy League (8) 1 1 0.1|
|Summit (9) 1 1 0.1|
|Big West (10) 1 1 0.1|
|Western Athletic(10 1 1 0.1|
|Big South (12) 1 1 0.1|
|Mid-American (12) 1 1 0.1|
|Mid-Eastern (13) 1 1 0.1|
|Total Division I 114 357|
|High School 31|
|Total in NBA 446|
This could be broken down even more. Say that there is a certain college, in the top conferences, that produces the most talent. Look at what coach has the most NBA talent currently in the League.
|Coach||School In NBA|
|John Calipari/Tubby Smith/Rick Patino||Kentucky 20|
|Mike Krzyzewski||Duke 18|
|Roy Williams||North Carolina 17|
|Bill Self||Kansas 14|
|Jim Calhoun (86-12) / Kevin Ollie||Connecticut 12|
|Ben Howland||UCLA 12|
|Rick Barnes||Texas 11|
|Billy Donavan||Florida 10|
|Lute Olson (84-08) / Sean Miller (Current)||Arizona 9|
|Lorenzo Romar||Washington 8|
|Paul Hewitt (00 – 11) / Brian Gregory||Georgia Tech 7|
|Buzz Williams||Marquette 7|
|Mike Brey||Notre Dame 6|
|Thad Matta||Ohio State 6|
|Jim Boehiem||Syracuse 6|
|Jeff Bzdeilk/Dino Gaudio||Wake Forest 6|
|Mark Few||Gonzaga 5|
|Brady / Trent Johnson||Louisiana State 5|
|John Calipari / Josh Pastner||Memphis 5|
|Tom Izzo||Michigan State 5|
|Johnny Dawkins||Stanford 5|
|Tim Floyd (09) – Kevin O’Neill||USC 5|
|Drew Scott||Baylor 4|
|Jeff Bzdeilk (07-10) – Tad Boyle (10-pres)||Colorado 4|
|Jay Wright||Villanova 4|
There are more schools and coaches that have produced talent out there; I have elected to just use any coaches that have produced 4 or more.
Going to coach level can also help a NBA team with style of play. Teams can match up what coach may suit their system the best. When matching up systems or style of play, it can make the transition of college to the NBA much easier for the college player.
While drafting isn’t a science, neither is this system. It is just a little data to help provide a possible solution to “tie-breakers”.