Zach LaVine and shot selection

It’s early.

Early in Zach LaVine‘s career, early in his stint as a starting NBA point guard, and still relatively early in the season, really.

And while I realize this, nine starts and eighteen games in is the beginning of a semi-reasonable sample size, and at the very least it is becoming clear what LaVine does well already and what he most needs to work on, albeit in the infancy of a hopefully long NBA career.

LaVine is an athletic freak. Everyone knows this. He also is a very thin person, and will need to work on bulking up a little bit in order to withstand the pounding of driving into the lane time and time again over an 82 game professional season. He’s also been a passable shooter, with a .493 True Shooting Percentage, and a straight field goal mark of 46.2%.

The issue at this point is shot selection. It’s to be expected from a 19-year old rookie that didn’t wasn’t even starting a few months ago on his college squad, and even more so because he’s being moved from his natural shooting guard position into a point guard. It’s a bit of a square-peg-in-round-hole situation, and while there’s no doubt that coach Flip Saunders envisions him as a Russell Westbrook-type player, there’s a guy by the name of Ricky Rubio that just signed a large extension to play point guard in Minnesota, too.

Realistically, LaVine’s best minutes will come at the two-guard spot, so it’s a bit tough to stomach that he’s being asked to do so much so early in his career at a position that won’t be his long-term home on the court.

LaVine is obviously juggling when he should push the pace, slow it down, pass it ahead to a teammate, or keep the ball and either drive the lane or initiate the offense. There were a couple moments in Wednesday’s win over Portland that LaVine stood and held the ball for too long before turning it over on an entry pass to the post.

There was also the play in the final minute of the game when Saunders drew up a brilliant out-of-bounds play that sent LaVine galloping up the court with the ball. He was undoubtedly supposed to kill clock and force the Trail Blazers to foul him, but instead he tried an impossible reverse layup that rimmed out. The Wolves got the rebound, but it was a dangerous decision.

Overall, his decision-making has been solid enough. Too often, however, LaVine is choosing to shoot off-balance pull-up jump shots from mid-range. In fact, according to Basketball-Reference.com, 32.2% of his field goal attempts are coming from beyond 16 feet but beneath the arc. Simply put, that number is far too high. And not only that, it isn’t like he’s making those shots: he’s shooting just 33.3% on 16-foot-plus two-point shots.

With the athleticism that LaVine possesses, he should be using his first step and adequate handle to penetrate, and if he can’t get to the rim, pass to a teammate. A willingness to drive into the paint will create passing lanes, and while he doesn’t exactly have world-beaters around him when it comes to catching-and-shooting from the perimeter, it will lead to good things.

Take a look at LaVine heat map thus far in the young NBA season, courtesy of the fantastic NBAsavant.com:

While the heavy color in the 16-20 foot range is certainly a concern as mentioned above, the rather prominent green/yellow marks just outside the red glob at the rim is nearly as alarming. This would suggest that LaVine is shying away from contact at the rim and shooting awkward, short floater-type shots.With his athleticism, he needs to be more decisive and head straight to the rim, dealing with contact and defenders once he gets there.

Overall, LaVine’s done an admiral job in being forced into a role that he wasn’t prepared for and probably never expected to be playing before his 20th birthday. Saunders is a good point guard coach, and for the most part, LaVine has proven that point over the past few weeks.

Keep an eye on the high number of long two-pointers that LaVine shoots, as well as how many possessions he drains with his indecisiveness. Those are the two things to watch most closely in the near future.

In the meantime, let’s enjoy watching an athlete morph into a basketball player in front of our eyes. If Wednesday night’s performance from LaVine and fellow rookie Andrew Wiggins was a sign of things to come, Wolves fans may (finally) be in for a treat as we continue to kick the can down the road.

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