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Andrew Wiggins and the shaky parallels to LeBron James and Kobe Bryant

By Ben Beecken

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Fair or unfair, comparisons between Andrew Wiggins and superstars of the current generation that also began as teenage rookies in the NBA have existed since YouTube made Wiggins a high school sensation.

Even parallels between Wiggins and Michael Jordan were drawn — Maple Jordan was the nickname, in case you somehow missed it. Kobe Bryant and LeBron James have been the comparisons made most frequently, given their age as rookies and dominate success in today’s NBA. Never mind the obvious differences in body type, especially between Wiggins and James, but of course that won’t slow down the internet’s player comparison hype machine.

And while both Bryant and James have seen their respective careers journey through various stages of development, they started in a similar spot to Wiggins. The most obvious difference being that the Wolves’ rookie attended a year of college at Kansas University and is a bit older than the future Hall-of-Famers at this stage in his young career, but overall, their games took on a similar look as rookies.

Bryant had the good fortune of being on a 56-win team as a rookie. Shaquille O’Neal was in his fifth-season and was only 24-years old for the 1996-97 Lakers, and prime Eddie Jones and even an aging Byron Scott weren’t bad, either. Bryant played in 71 games but only started six, and was a key piece off the bench for a playoff team that made it to the second round.

As a rookie, Bryant attempted .322 three-pointers per field goal attempt, which is the highest rate in his career. There isn’t data showing where on the floor Bryant attempted the most shots from before the 2000-01 season, but from the year 2000 through the current season, which spans Bryant’s age-22 through age-36 seasons, he’s only attempted a higher percentage of shots at the rim than Wiggins’ so far this year one time — the 2003-04 season, when the Lakers and Bryant in his age-25 season lost in five games in the Finals to the Detroit Pistons.

Bryant turned the ball over a great deal more often as a rookie than Wiggins, and the former focused his game more on the perimeter than the latter has thus far. Their rebound rates are similar, but assist and steal rates are easily in Bryant’s favor. He finished the 1996-97 season with a Win Shares per 48 Minutes of .079. Bryant was a rotation player by that metric, but not much beyond that. It’s also easily the lowest WS/48 mark of Kobe’s career.

James, on the other hand, was forced to play a lot more combo guard as a rookie than he has at any point since. The roster that he had to work with was a lost less impressive than Bryant’s — a 22-year old Carlos Boozer and prime, healthy Zydrunas Ilgauskas were the only good players that James had around him, but his turnover rate was a fairly low 13.9% while being asked to create a fair amount for a 35-win team as a rookie.

James has never been anything more than an average three-point shooter, but he was poor as a rookie, shooting 2.5 long-balls per game at a 29% clip, which was easily the lowest of his career. His three-point to field goal attempt ratio was .145, which is a lot less than Bryant’s rookie mark but slightly higher than Wiggins’, and the Wolves’ rookie is shooting 39% from long-range.

Similar to Bryant’s WS/48 of .079, James’ was .078 as a rookie, also by far the worst of his career. For comparison, Wiggins’ WS/48 is sitting at a paltry -.026, which is far, far below anything resembling the production of even an end-of-the-bench player in the NBA. It should come up as he plays the second half of the season with a healthy Ricky Rubio, but we’ve also touched on Flip Saunders’ play-calling and handling of Wiggins and his shot selection to this point.

The main issues that Wiggins is having is overall efficiency with his shot attempts, and the lack of impact he’s having in other areas of the game. Rebounding has been inconsistent for a player of Wiggins’ athletic ability and alleged instincts, and the lack of assists has been somewhat concerning. It’s largely a feel thing, and those number should climb a bit as the season continues, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

At this point, it would be insane to conclude anything from the opening two months of Wiggins’ career, but it is important to note that where both Bryant and James finished their respective rookie campaigns was miles ahead of where Wiggins is now. Equally as important is the fact that Bryant and James both had what was by far their least productive seasons as rookies, so regardless of where Wiggins is come mid-April, there is plenty of light at the end of the tunnel.

We’ll keep an eye on Saunders’ coaching in regards to Wiggins moving forward, but I would be that playing with Rubio will likely have a noticeably positive impact on Wiggins’ overall on-court production. It’s far too early to make any bold predictions or to have any concrete expectations for his future, but at the moment, it doesn’t look quite as bright as a couple of current wing players that will be in the Hall of Fame soon.

And that’s not bad, of course. Kobe Bryant and LeBron James are each one-of-a-kind players, and Andrew Wiggins is his own man. But it’s also important to temper expectations across the board, at least for now.

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