Timberwolves Shot Selection: An eternal issue

We’ve spent a lot of time at Dunking With Wolves discussing the Timberwolves’ shot selection, and more specifically, the shot selection of specific players.

But the Wolves’ offense has simply been terrible in general. While individual players could improve their own shot selection and certainly their shot attempts make up the whole, there is more than enough blame to be assigned to coaching, scheme, and even player combinations and rotations.

Yes, a healthy Ricky Rubio would help. A lot. We’ll see that in a couple of weeks, hopefully, and some of this rant will be a moot point at that time. But for right now, it’s valid.

One way to effectively communicate just how terribly inefficient the Timberwolves’ offense is would be to post individual player shot charts, one after another. I kind of want to, but instead I’m going to cherry pick the worst of the worst from the first two-plus months of the season.

Starting with Zach LaVine is cheating, probably, and the poor kid shouldn’t even be played as many minutes as he’s been asked to, especially not at point guard. Heck, he wasn’t even starting at UCLA less than a year ago. But here it is:

Yeah, there’s a lot of blood. I chose the “Basic Zones” option on the fantastic NBA.com/stats to focus on exactly what LaVine needs to be doing: using his athleticism and young legs to get to the rim, score, and earn trips to the free throw line. The long two-pointers and above-the-break threes? Hard pass on those. Unfortunately, they make up 57.5% of the rookie guard’s shot attempts on the season.

Let’s take a look at another long-two-happy player. Anthony Bennett‘s shot chart, ladies and gentlemen:

What do you know? Even more blood. Thanks to last night’s corner three-ball in the fourth quarter, Bennett enjoys exactly one place on the floor that he’s shooting above league-average. Wouldn’t you know it, the league isn’t shooting 100% from the left corner.

The mid-range is disgusting — 61.2% of his shots come from between the paint and the arc, and he’s shooting a putrid 33.9%! And Bennett is actually decent around the rim, with the combination of his long arms and athleticism making him a legitimate threat if he ever rolls on a high screen. (He’ll be a more valuable player when Ricky Rubio returns, but it probably won’t improve much overall.)

And Shabazz Muhammad‘s shot chart is more of a cautionary tale:

Yep, that’s right. Muhammad is shooting a much higher percentage on a shot that’s worth 50% more than long two-point shots, but he continues to jack the twos.

Sure, Shabazz won’t shoot 42%+ above the break on threes if he shoots it more than once a game, but it’s still a better idea to launch those shots than the bevy of mid-range shots that he’s been hoisting at the rim. A good chunk of that 22.9% that’s attempted between the paint and the arc are his left-box post-up turnaround push-shots. It was effective last year and early this season, but it’s been scouted and it no longer works.

But he’s been highly effective around the rim as a hustle player, especially when matched up against much smaller small forwards or slower power forwards. If he accepts that his value is derived from spot-up shooting and hustle on the glass and in the lane, he’ll continue to be a plus-player in the NBA.

We could go on and on citing individual player’s issues with their shot selection, but at some point it’s clear that there’s a coaching disconnect. Players need to stay within themselves, and that sentiment has to go beyond Anthony Bennett apparently being told in the preseason that he isn’t allowed to shoot threes.

Shot selection will inevitably improve when Rubio returns, as more open shots will be generated and Rubio’s ability to penetrate into the lane will break defenses down. Add in the outside shooting threat of Kevin Martin and hopefully an additional inside presence in Nikola Pekovic, and spacing will improve overnight.

That won’t necessarily stop LaVine, Bennett, and possibly Muhammad from launching long-twos when they’re allowed off the bench in limited minutes, but Saunders needs to nip it in the bud. Those shots sabotage possessions and are nearly as toxic as live-ball turnovers.

When Rubio returns, things will change. The question is, exactly how much will his on-court style and leadership shape and form how his teammates play? Here’s hoping the change is as significant as the numbers suggest it might be, and that we may find out sooner rather than later.