Timberwolves 2016-17 Player Rankings: First Edition

It’s player rankings season, and that means that it’s time to find out how many top-100 players the Timberwolves have on their roster.

It’s the end of August, and that means that it’s the start of the NBA player rankings season.

ESPN usually runs it’s ranking of the top-400 players in a time frame from about late September into late October. This year, Kelly Scaletta at Today’s Fastbreak began ranking his top-100 NBA players in mid-August, and there have already been a few Wolves players coming off the board.

And it makes sense; one glance at the Timberwolves roster suggests that Karl-Anthony Towns is the only top-25 or 30 player in the league, and Ricky Rubio might be the only other player that should crack the top-50 or 60. But there aren’t many slouches in the Wolves’ rotation.

The depth of the roster is solid, but there are a number of good players with great upside. Scaletta’s list bears that out.

The first Timberwolves player to appear on the countdown is third-year guard Zach LaVine — perhaps the definition of a solid player with an astronomical upside.

Scaletta breaks each player down by their “Ceiling” rank for the upcoming year as well as their “Floor”. According to this profile, LaVine has a ceiling of #50 and a floor of #100 for the upcoming year.

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This is probably about right, as it’s tough to see LaVine vaulting to an All-Star-caliber level quite yet, although an improvement on defense would certainly put him in the conversation.

Scaletta’s analysis of LaVine’s defense is valid:

"If we’re talking last year, LaVine was an empirical disaster on defense. His -3.65 Defensive Real Plus-Minus was 80th among 81 point guards and 456th out of 462 players overall. But this is where you can expect Thibodeau to really help. There just wasn’t much of a cohesive structure to the defense. Thibodeau should resolve that.The man that made Ray Allen into a good defender and Kyle Korver into a serviceable one can certainly mold someone with LaVine’s athleticism into at least a solid one. At 6’6″, LaVine has the size to cover several positions. With the way Thibodeau’s system works, expect LaVine to be using his quickness to safely shoot passing lanes and generate a lot of steals that quickly turn into points."

The idea that LaVine is currently the 83rd-best player in the NBA is maybe a little optimistic, but I think it’s also safe to say that LaVine is one of those players who seems to really be getting it, and it’s starting to feel more inevitable than unlikely that he becomes a star-caliber player.

Next up for the Wolves is Andrew Wiggins at #73. Now, some casual fans may see that as too low, but many metrics would suggest that it’s a touch too high.

On the other hand, I would argue that it’s just about right. Scaletta has Wiggins’ ceiling at #35 and his floor at #90, which also feels about right.

Here’s part of the reason why Scaletta slotted Wiggins’ ceiling at near-All-Star level:

"During his stint with the Chicago Bulls, Tom Thibodeau turned Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler into All-Stars. Wiggins certainly falls in line with the type of wing player that those two were, and his ceiling is the highest. One of the more startling statistics about Wiggins is how drastic his splits are early and late in the shot clock.NBA.com stopped making some of its data public in the middle of the season, but up to that point, according to NBASavant.com, Wiggins had an effective field goal percentage of 51.2 percent with 13 or more seconds on the shot clock and just 40.6 percent with 12 or fewer seconds on it. That’s a pretty clear indication of being a bailout man."

That’s fascinating stuff, and certainly helps to explain Wiggins’ inefficiency issues. Of course, there were also a number of occasions in which Wiggins simply held the ball on the wing and brought the late shot clock shots upon himself.

Scaletta also believes that Wiggins, who is currently an average-y defender on what was a terrible defensive team the past two seasons, could merit some All-Defensive Team consideration when combined with Tom Thibodeau and his defensive scheme.

The final Wolves player ranked between #70 and #100 is big man Gorgui Dieng, who slotted in at #71.

Dieng played mostly power forward a year ago, and there’s a solid chance that his wingspan, passing ability, and mid-range jump-shooting prowess will convince Thibodeau to start him at power forward once again in 2016-17.

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Scaletta ranks Dieng’s ceiling at #50 and his floor at #95. Again, not much of a span, but it also seems about right. Dieng was a legitimately good player a year ago, and has been consistent throughout his first three NBA seasons.

His thoughts on Dieng’s defensive contributions are intriguing, to be sure:

"Dieng is still a defense-first player. His Defensive Real Plus-Minus was +2.54, which ranked 28th overall in the NBA. But he’s arguably even better than that. It seems things finally clicked for him the second half of last seaosn.For example, prior to the break, opponents shot 5.1 percent above their season average against him within six feet of the rim. After it, they shot 1.4 percentage points worse.Between his athletic ability, 7-foot-4 wingspan and shot-blocking instincts, he’s the sort of prototypical big man Thibodeau thrives with defensively. Plug him in the Boston Celtics-Kevin Garnett or Chicago Bulls-Joakim Noah role.As Thibodeau works with the whole team, Dieng and Wiggins, in particular, will thrive in their roles. If the ‘Wolves get in the playoffs, Dieng may very well get All-Defensive Team consideration."

Dieng still isn’t an outstanding one-on-one defender; bigger centers and power forwards can overpower him relatively easily. But he’s a great help defender and very good matching up against middling and lower-tier stretch-fours.

The Dieng-Towns front court pairing was fantastic down the stretch last spring, and there’s reason to believe that Thibodeau could make them one of the most feared front courts in the NBA overnight.

What Timberwolves players are going to be in the top-70? Rubio and Towns, certainly. But that’s probably it for Thibodeau’s squad.

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We’ll keep an eye on Scaletta’s rankings, plus be on top of ESPN’s player rankings when they start in a few weeks. We’re almost through August, folks…