The Minnesota Timberwolves won’t make the playoffs this year

After the Minnesota Timberwolves acquired Jimmy Butler, everyone believes they will make next year’s playoffs. Unfortunately, they won’t.

Even after the Minnesota Timberwolves pulled off one of the blockbuster trades of the summer in acquiring Jimmy Butler, they are far from a shoo-in for the 2017-18 playoffs. In the week or so that has since passed, fans and experts alike have jumped on the Timberwolves’ playoff bandwagon. And with very good reason.

Minnesota now has three stars to build their team around in Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. These three guys alone accounted for more than 60 points a game last season.

However, outside of the new Big Three, the Timberwolves have very little to work with.

On their current roster, they only have three other players who figure to be locks for their rotation next season; Ricky Rubio, Gorgui Dieng and Nemanja Bjelica. Tyus Jones also appears to be in line for a rotation spot but nobody can say for certain as he only played in 60 games last season.

As for Rubio, who knows if he will be in a Wolves uniform next season as the rumors continue to fly.

With all of free agency yet to play out I understand there are lots of moves left to make. The Timberwolves will have between $19-21 million to spend come July 1 and are possibly chasing more big names in the likes of Kyle Lowry, Jrue Holiday or Andre Iguodala.

If these rumors are true, I hope Thibodeau comes to his senses and doesn’t chase another big name player to add to this roster but that’s a different article for a different day. Today, I will keep my focus on why the Wolves won’t make the playoffs next year.

The main reason is simple; lack of depth. If you thought the Timberwolves had depth issues last year, wait until you see the 2017-18 version.

Wiggins and Towns were first and second respectively in total minutes played in the NBA last season. Heck, Dieng even came in at 20th.

The Towns and Wiggins combo was also the second most used two-man lineup, spending 31.8 minutes per game on the floor together. The fourth most used lineup? Wiggins and Rubio. The 10th most used lineup? Lavine and Towns. The 12th most used lineup? Rubio and Towns. The 14th most used lineup? Dieng and Wiggins. I think I’ve hammered home my point.

By now, we can all trust Thibodeau to overuse his starters to the point of near-exhaustion while fresh legs sit on the bench. We saw it during his tenure in Chicago and we saw it least year with the Timberwolves.

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With the current core, each of the Big Three are certain to see 36-38 minutes per game on average. If each player is able to hold up throughout the course of the season, I’m concerned they will be completely worn down if they make the playoffs.

Unfortunately, we’ve seen what the effects Thibodeau’s minutes’ distribution can have on a player. Under Thibodeau’s watch, Derrick Rose has sustained three major knee injuries, Butler missed extended time with an elbow sprain among other injuries, Joakim Noah required knee surgery and Pau Gasol’s hamstring acted up in the playoffs after playing 34 minutes a game at 34 years old. That’s not even including Zach Lavine’s ACL tear. I’m not saying he is solely to blame for these injuries but it is a factor we cannot dismiss

If any of the Butler-Towns-Wiggins trio goes down next season the Wolves will be in a dire situation. They may end up relying on a Brandon Rush type player as a big time minutes-getter. That’s not going to get it done for a playoff contender.

No matter what happens, they don’t have the cap money to fill all of their positions of need going into next season. They still have issues at every single position on their roster. They need a backup point guard, backup wings and a backup frontcourt player. That’s at least three players to sign with only $19ish million to work with.

Even if the Timberwolves manage to sign a player at each of those positions, shooting and floor spacing will still be a huge area of concern. The lineup of Rubio, LaVine, Wiggins, Dieng and Towns averaged 21.5 minutes per game in 41 games last season. During those games, that quintuplet shot 35.5 percent from the 3-point line, the third-worst lineup of any players who averaged at least 10 minutes together and played in at least 30 games last season.

Now, Butler isn’t a bad 3-point shooter but he isn’t going to take the same volume of outside shots that LaVine took. Last year, Butler shot a respectable 36.7 percent on 3.3 3-point shots a game. However, that’s not going to greatly improve this team’s outside shooting.

Even the fit of Butler and Wiggins has been called into question. Can these two players peacefully co-exist? It’s possible as we’ve seen it in the past with the likes of LeBron James and Dwayne Wade. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean it’s probable.

To begin, both of these dudes have very high usage percentages. Butler’s is 26.5 and Wiggins is 28.8, both ranking in the top 35 of NBA players.

They also happen to play the same position. Butler spent 64 percent of his time last year in Chicago at the small forward spot. Wiggins, on the same hand, spent a whopping 93 percent at the small forward position. I’m not a mathematician but I don’t believe two guys can both play small forward at the same time.

Defense is the final conundrum the Timberwolves have. Even with the addition of Butler, who, according to NBA Math, saved 61.35 defensive points last season, the Wolves are still a bad defensive team.

Wiggins had a defensive points saved score of -174.21, the second worst in the NBA solely behind Isaiah Thomas. The only players who are certain to be in Minnesota’s rotation next year with a positive defensive points saved score are Towns and Dieng.

The Timberwolves were also a better team defensively last season when Towns and Wiggins were on the bench. Overall, Minnesota finished with a defensive rating of 109.1, ranking 26th in the NBA.

With Towns on the court, the Wolves defensive rating was 110.8, which would have been the worst in the NBA. Minnesota’s defensive rating with Wiggins on the court,110.4, also would have been the worst.

Off the court, however, Minnesota’s defense improved remarkably with either one of these dudes sitting on the bench. The Wolves had a 103.6 defensive rating with Towns on the bench and a 104.8 rating when Wiggins was out. Those ratings would have been good for fifth and eighth best respectively in the NBA.

Next: Minnesota Timberwolves: Free agency areas of need

To be clear, Butler will bring a lot to the table that the Wolves need to take that next step, defense and outside shooting included. However, he is not their sole savior.