Which Timberwolves player takes the last shot?
Jan 29, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Kevin Martin (23) shoots over New Orleans Pelicans guard Eric Gordon (10) during the first quarter at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
The opposing team has just scored a critical go-ahead basket against the T-Wolves defense with under 24 seconds left in regulation.
The Target Center crowd, overflowing with a vast array of Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, and Nikola Pekovic apparel are chomping on their long-gone fingernails for the umpteenth time in a trying 2014-2015 regular season.
Flip Saunders calls the team’s final timeout and begins drawing up a play for the game’s last shot. The Wolves are trying to avoid dropping to fourth place in the Northwest Division and are battling to reach the .500-mark late in the campaign.
Flip looks around at his potential options for the final shot and begins weighing his choices.
So, who does he choose? In the 2013-2014 season, the answer was almost always (barring an injury, foul-out or some other sort of predicament) a certain double-double machine who also fancied hitting the clutch three-pointer. But for this season, the first without that all-star in quite some time, Flip has a tough choice to make.
Who does he choose?
Well, there is no one answer to resolve this situation unfortunately and it will depend on the circumstances. Do you need a three-pointer to tie it? What kind of defensive lineup are the Wolves up against in this final possession? Has Kevin Martin been hot all game from downtown? Does Thaddeus Young already have a handful of money, mid-range game-winners to his credit early in his Minnesota career?
Let’s take a look at some potential game situations and attempt to pick the head coach’s brain a bit, giving a possible “Plan A” and “Plan B.”
SITUATION:
– Wolves are down by three
– 5 seconds left in regulation
Bottom Line: You need a three to send it to overtime!
Plan A: Get Martin open behind the three-point line and fire away.
With the other Kevin no longer on the team, Martin arguably becomes the main three-point shooter on this Wolves squad. Sporting a career 38.5% success rate on three-pointers, number 23’s biggest strength is definitely his shooting. If he’s hot or has a slower defender guarding him, let K-Mart take the potential game-tying shot.
Here are Martin’s shooting statistics from the 2013-2014 NBA season, courtesy of NBA.com.
Plan B: Utilize the veteran experience of Mo Williams for a game-tying attempt.
Most teams in this situation are likely not going to be thinking “double-team Williams” or “do not let that speed demon out of your sight!”
With rookies like Zach LaVine and Wiggins being unproven jump shooters in the pros, why not give the 11-year veteran a chance at the big shot? From all zones behind the three-point line, Williams shot at least 30% last season according the chart below.
SITUATION:
– Wolves are down by two
– 10 seconds left in regulation
Bottom Line: You need a field goal or an automatic free-throw shooter to draw a defensive foul.
Plan A: Feed the overpowering Pekovic in the post and give the big man a shot to send it to OT.
For the sake of this post, let’s say the Wolves are playing for overtime and that defensive stalwarts Dwight Howard or Joakim Noah are not defending Pek.
The Montenegrin is one of, if not the strongest bodies in the league and he led the Wolves in field goal percentage at .541 last season (excluding Ronny Turiaf.) If you were curious, Pek’s free-throw percentage was a very respectable .747 last year.
Plan B: In-bound to Rubio, Pekovic sets a screen for Thad Young, and the newcomer takes a mid-range jumper to send it to the extra period.
So, as you can see above, a lot has to go right just for Thad to have a semi-uncontested attempt at this field goal. The newcomer had a career season last year and was very solid from mid-range, especially on the left side. Let’s see if Thad can produce some magic in his first season with Minnesota.
SITUATION:
– Wolves are down by one
– 15 seconds left in regulation
Bottom line: A basket wins it and a miss means, well you know…
Plan A: Isolation play for Wiggins
This is certainly what the crowd came to see.
The highly touted, “we traded you for number-42”, hopeful superstar in the making forward is the headliner. Not known has much of a jump shooter, Wiggins’ strength during his year at Kansas seemed to be his overall athleticism and quickness. Depending on the matchup, the other Wolves players may just want to get out of the way and let the rookie do his thing.
Plan B: Set a pick for Rubio going to the basket to convert a lay-up or draw a foul
Yet another Wolves player not known for his shooting, Rubio’s best shot at scoring points has always been on drives to the hole and/or on free throws.
Once again, Pek’s big body could be the difference maker here. If he sets a solid screen, that one extra step could be the difference between an open lay-up attempt for Rubio, a game-winning defensive block, or a foul call to send the usually reliable guard to the line for the win.
As I may hear in the comment section below, this post is up for much debate and interpretation. The answer to the question “Who takes the last shot?” is no longer a foregone conclusion without the all-star power forward who took his talents to Cleveland.
These are just some mere suggestions for when pigs start flying, JaVale McGee becomes president, and I am the head coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves.