Wolves After Two Games: Good, Bad, and Neutral
By Ben Beecken
Through the first two games of the 2014-15 season, the Wolves have been about what we expected.
The team is improved defensively, struggles with rebounding, and doesn’t shoot many three-pointers. They also lost a road game against a playoff team and sneaked out a close home win against another likely 30-35 win team that was on the second night of a road back-to-back. Both were expected results.
But let’s dive a bit deeper. What has been good? Bad? Neutral?
Good
– Thaddeus Young: The veteran forward has been the best player on the floor for the Wolves through the first two contests. He’s been active on both ends of the floor, and generally smart in his shot selection. Thankfully, Flip Saunders has allowed Young to shoot three-pointers, and he is shooting 4 of 7 from long-range, mostly on wide-open attempts courtesy of Ricky Rubio. He’s been good defensively, save for the stretches against Memphis when he was forced to guard the girth-y Zach Randolph in the post.
He isn’t a great rebounder at the power forward spot, and that will be the biggest downfall for this Wolves squad. Going from the league’s best rebounder to someone that doesn’t grab many boards while playing the ‘4’ will have an adverse affect, especially down the stretch when possessions are at an absolute premium. Look no further than Andre Drummond‘s missed free throw in the final minute from last night’s game that led to a wide-open three attempt that would have tied the game if it had been converted.
All that said, Young has done what we all expected. He can score, and he can be a pest defensively. If he can keep his three-point percentage north of 33-34% (he’s a career 32.4% three-point shooter), he could easily contend for “best player” status on the Wolves.
– The point guards: Sure, he had 7 turnovers on opening night. But LeBron James had 8. So there. But in all honesty, at least three of Rubio’s turnovers against Memphis cannot be blamed solely on him, and he followed it up with a one-turnover performance against Detroit.
And yes, Rubio is just 9 of 22 from the field, good for just north of 40%, but his jumper is legitimately improved. Just against Memphis, he shot 4 of 6 on pull-jumpers, and was just as dangerous against the Pistons. Finishing at the rim has been better overall, minus the two wild, unnecessary reverse layup/pass attempts that occurred on Thursday. No more of those, please.
Mo Williams has been a revelation. But this is also where I caution against getting too worked up. Williams is a souped up, more consistent version of J.J. Barea. He’s a scoring-minded, shoot-first point guard that doesn’t defend.
The difference, of course, is that Williams is a slightly better shooter overall, and doesn’t generally get himself into trouble at the rim. While Barea would barrel headlong into traffic and hoist a tough layup at the rim trying to draw a foul, Williams would much rather shoot a contested jumper. Not better, necessarily, but so far those jumpers have gone in, for the most part. (Yes, he’s been great. And yes, he’ll be better than Barea when it’s all said and done. But temper your enthusiasm a bit.)
Neutral Observations
– Andrew Wiggins: Despite the extremely modest box score lines, Andrew Wiggins will be a positive contributor this season. No, he will not be an immediate star. Maybe never. But his defense and instincts are already at a professional level, and he’s drained spot-up jumpers when given an open opportunity. His jumping ability, wingspan, and size will be vital at the small forward spot for a team with an undersized power forward, and this will help outweigh some of the other early issues on the offensive end.
Wiggins doesn’t handle the ball at an NBA level as of yet, but that’s okay. Over-dribbling would almost be a worse issue, and if he is content with knocking down open jumpers and playing off of that skill with pump fakes and straight-line drives to the hoop (see the third quarter in the Pistons game for examples of both), he’ll be an efficient and effective offensive player. Add in his ability in the open floor alongside Rubio, and you’ve got yourself a starting-caliber NBA wing.
Stardom? Maybe someday. But give it time and don’t get down on a 19-year old that’s already an NBA contributor.
– Lack of three-point shooting: This is tempting to put under the “Negative” heading, but I haven’t made up my mind on this as of yet. Being last in the league in threes attempted per game is bad, and there’s no question about that. But Kevin Martin and Chase Budinger are two of the best three-point shooters on the squad, and they have only played 20 minutes and 15 minutes, respectively, over the course of two games. So that number should naturally be a bit lower.
Williams is a 38.5% three-point shooter, Young has the green light, and Rubio knocked down treys at a 33.1% clip last year and hasn’t attempted one yet. Beyond that, this team simply lacks shooters. That’s a problem in and of itself (it’s one of the reasons why Nikola Pekovic struggled to get going in the first three halves of play this season) in regards to floor spacing, but at least the Wolves are shooting threes at a 45.5% rate, I guess.
Negative
– Nikola Pekovic’s first three halves of the season: This is not a concern to me, as Pekovic always seems to have a slow start to the season. But it was ugly, and although he was much more effective down the stretch of Thursday night’s game against the Pistons, it still wasn’t pretty. He’ll be fine.
– Anthony Bennett‘s shot selection: I’m rooting for Anthony Bennett. I really am. But he simply has to stop hoisting multiple bad shots in the limited amount of time he’s on the court. Turnaround jumpers? No thanks. Contested, off-balance long twos with plenty of time remaining on the shot clock? Gross.
I know that Flip and the coaching staff all but told Bennett to never shoot threes, and that long twos are in his range, but he better not stretch it any further. I hate this, but whatever. So far, he’s mostly made his wide-open long twos. Keep shooting those. But not the contested, fake heat-check shots. Those. Are. Never. Good. Shots.
All things considered, the first two games have gone as expected. The most intriguing test of the season comes on Saturday night, when the Chicago Bulls come to town on the second night of a back-to-back. Derrick Rose and Co. are hosting LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, and should be sufficiently tired by the time that Wolves-Bulls tips off on Saturday night.
With a night of rest for the home team, the Wolves have a great chance to beat a quality opponent and gain some much-needed confidence. We’ll have a thorough preview on Saturday morning, so please head back here for that.
In the meantime, enjoy your Friday, and have a great weekend!