The ongoing saga of Ricky Rubio’s shooting capabilities
By Ben Beecken
The topic of Ricky Rubio’s shooting capabilities, or lack thereof, doesn’t need any sort of introduction.
Rubio’s shortcomings are well-documented. Namely, non-spot-up jump-shots and finishing at the rim, which build into the much larger, broader, overall problem: the ability to score and do so with some semblance of efficiency.
It would be ridiculous to come to any sort of conclusion through the first four games of the 2014-15 season. Indeed, the apparent increase in confidence that Rubio has in his jump shot seems to be making all the difference thus far. That said, let’s call it like it is and admit that we don’t really know if he’s improved yet — sure, a straight 41.9% clip on field goals is better than last year’s final mark of 38.1%, but a) not by much, b) it’s still not good, and c) the season is only four games old.
So let’s paint broader strokes. One could start by taking arbitrary endpoints: since February 1, Rubio has shot 41% from the field. Start with March 1 and he’s at 41.86%. But that doesn’t do us a ton of good, either.
He shot 33.1% from beyond the arc a season ago — not great by any means, but respectable enough, and especially from a player that is known for not being able to shoot.
His mid-range game has been poor, sure, but that’s not the biggest issue. Rubio shouldn’t be taking mid-range jumpers on a regular basis; at this point he’s forced into them because defenses have sagged so deep into the paint and consistently beneath screens that he has no other choice. And hitting them at a sub-35% clip as he has to this point in his career is simply not an option.
But at some point, that shot shouldn’t be easily available to Rubio. As soon as his mid-range percentage inches north of 40% (this season, Rubio is 6 of 12 from 12-18 feet through four games), teams will begin to play him like they do most point guards. And a guarded mid-range shot is, quite simply, not a good shot.
In response, Rubio will be quick enough to get his shoulders past his man in a one-on-one situation more often than not, but his relative lack of strength and inability to finish around the rim will be even more glaring than it has been to this point. He’s still struggling with finishing at the rim so far this season, shooting just 6 of 15 within six feet. There was, of course, this impressive drive and finish past Deron Williams and Brook Lopez on Wednesday night.
One of the more common suggestions to “fix” Rubio is that he acquire a floater of sorts in the lane, a la Tony Parker. Easier said than done.
The best point guard in the NBA is, unquestionably, Chris Paul. He has a killer floater game, and in addition to the ability to finish at the rim (60% in 2013-14), he can shoot the long ball (35.7% on three-pointers in his career) well enough to keep defenses honest.
Obviously, Rubio is not Paul. The most common star comparison for Rubio, however, is Rajon Rondo. The surface similarities are obvious: they are both pass-first guards that have been known to pass up open layups in order to pass to a teammate, and they both started their careers as terrible jump shooters. Defenses played age 20-22 Rondo the same way as they currently play Rubio.
But take a look at heat maps from the two point guards’ respective careers. (Yes, Rondo has 8+ seasons of data while Rubio only has 3+, but it still works for this study.)
Very, very similar. A couple of observations: Rubio is more comfortable on the left side of the floor, including driving to the rim left-handed. The only other obvious difference is the small bump out to about ten feet or so in front of the rim on Rondo’s heat chart.
Rondo attempts something of a pseudo-floater from straight on, inside 10 feet. But there is nothing — literally, nothing — from between about 10 to 15 feet. Rondo doesn’t have that middle-of-the-floor, “floater” game that point guards supposedly need to have in today’s game. For reference, here is Paul’s:
Obviously, nobody thought Rubio = Paul, or that he’ll ever be anything that resembles CP3. It does show, however, that Rubio can be Rondo, even Rondo 2.0. It’s not crazy to talk about. Rubio’s a superior defender, three-point shooter, and free throw shooter. He’s also just 24 years old.
The point here is simply that Rubio does not need to develop a floater. He does not need to fit some predetermined mold. What he does need to do is finish at the rim better, and continue improving his jumper.
That said, Ricky needs to be Ricky. And that means hellacious on-ball defense, effective and relentless help defense, very good rebounding, outstanding passing, otherworldly court vision, passable three-point shooting, and excellent free throw shooting.
Right now, it also includes an improving jump shot and the strength and craftiness to finish at the rim at the highest level of professional basketball.