Shabazz Muhammad: “Professional Scorer”

Dan Feldman of NBC Sports posted an article that quotes Shabazz Muhammad as saying that his four-game stint in the D-League last season was something that was “important” and “needed” for his career. There’s also a quote from Flip Saunders that reads as follows:

"“He’s a professional scorer. When he’s 60 years old, he’ll be at the playground scoring. That’s just what he does.”"

Does Saunders’ invoking the oft-used, worn-out cliche in sports of someone being a “professional” something (in baseball, “professional hitter”, etc.) mean anything at all? Is it conceivably a bad thing? Quite possibly. Saunders himself even admits that Muhammad “shoots it before he can turn it over” in the above-linked piece. Yikes.

Let’s give credit where credit is due: Muhammad has been an overwhelmingly positive contributor to the Wolves thus far in the 2014-15 season. He’s proven that he’s a rotation-caliber player in the NBA, which is not something that he appeared to be coming out of UCLA and throughout his rookie season. The danger is in the idea that he’s a “scorer”, especially when his head coach almost endearingly suggests that he’s launching shots with reckless abandon.

And that’s just it — his usage rate is an insane 25.4%, and his shooting numbers aren’t significantly better than his rookie season. He’s not actually rebounding all that much better, either, even though it seems like he’s everywhere when he’s on the court. The only significant uptick is in his assist rate, which has climbed from a paltry 3.4% to a more reasonable 8.3% so far this season.

Muhammad isn’t a “professional scorer”. He’s not shooting the ball well from the field, save for in the paint after pulling down offensive rebounds. The Wolves consistently call left-box post-ups for Muhammad, as the baseline turn into a left-handed jump hook of sorts is his pet move. The thing is, he doesn’t convert that shot enough. Now that it’s been scouted, it’s largely ineffective.

Muhammad is below average from that spot on the floor, and he attempts 12.6% of his overall shots from that red-shaded area where he’s shooting just 34.2%. The spots in which he’s shooting above the league-average rate (shaded in green) only account for 10.3% of his shots, leaving the yellow area around the rim as the only place he’s making a significant impact.

And really, this shot-chart, combined with Muhammad’s rate-based numbers, paints the picture of a bench player that thrives on energy on the offensive and the occasional spot-up jumper. The left-box post-up is not currently an effective weapon as teams are game-planning for it, and his offensive impact is limited to any damage he can do on the glass by out-hustling and out-muscling counterparts at whatever forward spot he is playing.

And that’s okay. There’s a place for 10-16 minute-per-game hustle players as part of the bench unit on a contending team. As long as they know their role, a player like Muhammad is a valuable commodity. The issue is when a player begins to think that they need to try and perform outside of their strengths. By all accounts, Muhammad is a hard worker and a good teammate, but he also still fancies himself a “scorer”, and his coach thinks he is, too.

If he can keep up his rebounding rate and efficient scoring in the paint, he’ll continue to hold value on an injury-laden Wolves team, and as a bench piece on a playoff team at some point in the future. On the other hand, if he begins to venture outside his comfort zone and think he’s something that he is not as an NBA player, he may still into the bust that many of us feared.

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