Feb 20, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves forward Adreian Payne (3) rebounds in the third quarter against the Phoenix Suns at Target Center. The Minnesota Timberwolves beat the Phoenix Suns 111-109. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Traded protected future first-round pick to Atlanta for Adreian Payne
This trade occurred nearly concurrently with the Mo Williams deal as Saunders immediately filled the roster spot that had been vacated when Troy Daniels was moved to Charlotte along with Williams and only Gary Neal came back to Minnesota.
There are a couple of ways to analyze this move. First, the protections on the draft pick are important. Secondly, it depends on what you think of Payne.
The protections are as follows: top-14 from 2017 through 2020. In 2020 and 2021, the pick would become a second-rounder. In other words, Saunders was trying to protect his investment in the 15th overall pick in the 2014 draft — Adreian Payne.
The problem with that thinking is that draft values change dramatically as soon as players step on the court. Atlanta clearly thought after just a few short months and exactly 20 minutes of court time in the NBA that Payne was no longer worth the 15th overall pick they had spent and pushed the re-do button by getting a pick that will land not much south of the one they gave up on already.
As far as Payne goes…#15 was a reach. That’s the other problem with draft value. According to Saunders, however, the Wolves nearly drafted Payne instead of LaVine at #13.
Flip says it was a tough decision between LaVine and Payne on draft night, but ultimately that tough decision is why today's deal was made.
— Timberwolves PR (@Twolves_PR) February 10, 2015
In a perfect example of the value of draft picks changing already, look at the players drafted after Payne that have already been superior to both he and LaVine in just more than half of one NBA season.
I hashed out my reasons for not loving Payne as a player immediately following the trade, but in short: he didn’t do much at the collegiate level other than shoot the three well, and that hasn’t translated to the NBA three-point line while in the D-League or in brief minutes in Atlanta and Minnesota. He didn’t get many steals or assists while at Michigan State despite his impressive length and athleticism and being a four-year player in the Big Ten.
Therefore, it’s tough to see some of those cursory skills developing, and that’s an issue. At any rate, it’s a puzzling use of future assets by Saunders to grant a re-do for the Hawks and grab another unproven player, only this time an old rookie (he’s already 24-years old) that has a clear Saunders connection, having played for good buddy Tom Izzo at Michigan State.
Obviously there’s hope that Payne turns into a rotation player, but in most drafts, a pick in the mid-to-late teens will on average generate a superior prospect to the player the Wolves acquired from the Hawks.
Grade: C-
Next: Grading the Thad Young Trade - Part One