Flip Saunders’ system and the issue of three-point shooting

There has been a lot of conversation lately regarding Minnesota Timberwolves head coach Flip Saunders’ system, and how it almost neglects the three-point shot. Most of this buzz started from this tweet a couple of days ago.

When first reading this tweet, it’s likely that you may have cringed as I did. If Saunders is really telling Andrew Wiggins not to shoot the three-ball, then why is he coaching the Timberwolves? Why would he try to take away the three-point shot from Wiggins, especially at the NBA level where it’s such a popular weapon?

We later found out that the context surrounding this quote is important to understanding Saunders’ logic, but it still raises eyebrows about Saunders’ system and whether it can be successful in today’s NBA.

What I take from that quote is that Saunders wants Wiggins’ primary way of scoring the basketball to be attacking the rim, which doesn’t seem like a horrible idea. However, the thing about Saunders’ thinking here is that this is how he feels for the team as a whole.

Saunders’ offensive system is set up in a way that allows for very little three-point shots. Rarely will you see a play designed for a three-point shooter to catch the ball outside the arc ready for a shot. Instead, you’ll see a lot of curls to the elbow or inside the arc on the wing. Additionally, you’ll see a ton of isolation pick-and-roll and isolation post-up plays. Most of those isolation post-ups have been drawn up for Wiggins this season, especially as of late.

Historically, as the folks at Canis Hoopus point out, Saunders’ teams have never produced much from beyond the arc. Only twice in his entire coaching career has a team finished better than 20th in threes made, and it was his first two years in Detroit before they fell below that top-20 mark in his third season.

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The system Saunders is running this season is clearly behind the times. When I watch some of these teams that light up the scoreboard like the Warriors or Hawks I see teams that have embraced the new identity that has swept over the league, which is that three-point shooting can be a huge advantage. Interestingly enough, these two teams are the top two teams in the league in three-point shooting percentage and they both lead their respective conferences.

Other teams like the Rockets, Clippers, and Cavaliers are having success this season while joining the Warriors and the Hawks in the top five for three-point field goals made per game. For comparison, the Timberwolves rank dead last in three-pointers made per game and are also fighting for best odds in the NBA Draft Lottery.

While Saunders’ system is indeed outdated, another aspect of this whole dilemma is that Saunders doesn’t really have the personnel to run an offense that launches a bunch of threes. The Wolves don’t have a single player shooting above 40% for the season from three, and only four guys (Shabazz Muhammad, Kevin Martin, Chase Budinger, Gary Neal) that are above 35% for the season which is generally pretty average (h/t: @DerekJamesNBA).

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Martin and Budinger are clearly the two best threats from beyond the arc on this team, and both of them have missed a bunch of time this season due to injury. Additionally, Muhammad and Neal have been sitting out with injuries for a while now. Wiggins and LaVine are the only two three-point ‘threats’ that haven’t missed significant time this season, and they’re both shooting right around 32% from three this season.

The point I’m trying to make here is that Saunders hasn’t had much choice this season. He clearly doesn’t have the personnel to be running a system that launches a bunch of perimeter shots because the statistics show that not many of them would go in. It’s also tough to set up a different system that would allow for more perimeter shots when guys keep getting hurt and missing time.

Next season will be important for this whole fiasco. With everyone back and fully healthy (hopefully), will Saunders implement some new parts to his system to allow for more three-point opportunities? Or will he stick to his old school system full of elbow jumpers and pick-and-roll designs?

It seems pretty obvious in today’s game that efficient three-point shooting is an important part of a successful team. If Saunders is willing to evolve his coaching tactics heading into next season to accommodate the perimeter shot, the Wolves will have a chance to have success.