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Wolves Notes: More on Towns vs. Okafor

By Ben Beecken

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Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune posted a thought-provoking piece on Sunday that not only highlights the differences between potential number-one overall draft picks and big men Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor but also is loaded with quotes from folks in and around the industry.

Zgoda spoke with a variety of people, including ESPN analyst and former coach Fran Fraschilla, former player and ESPN analyst Jalen Rose, and Flip Saunders himself.

Rose’s quotes were surprisingly illuminating, especially regarding Okafor. One of the main concerns that we’ve identified here at Dunking With Wolves regarding the former Duke center is his decent but not overwhelming rebounding rate and defensive metrics, including steal and block rates. Rose feels similarly.

"“Good, bad or indifferent, he’s Brook Lopez,” Rose said, referring to Brooklyn’s All-Star but oft-injured center. “He’ll have seasons when he’ll get you 20 points, six or seven rebounds, one block and not be a really good defender. But his ultimate upside will be higher than Towns just because he’s so skilled.”"

Rose also suggests that Okafor could be the pick simply because offense is more important than defense right now, especially in the Western Conference. He uses the likes of Memphis as a comparison point to the Houstons, Golden States, and Oklahoma Citys of the world as the Grizzlies have struggled against high-scoring teams in the playoffs.

The most concerning part of Zgoda’s article were, not surprisingly, Flip Saunders’ quotes.

"“The reason they don’t throw the ball down to the post is because no one can score anymore,” said Saunders, the Wolves coach and player-personnel boss. “Some of the best post-up players now are wings.”…“Because everybody is playing one way, you can go back and play the other way and still be very efficient,” Saunders said. “There are different ways to look at it.”"

There’s a lot here, but let’s start with the first thought.

Indeed, there are not very many quality, back-to-the-basket, post-up-inclined centers in the year 2015. Zgoda mentions Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O’Neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Kevin McHale in his article and indeed, there is not a soul resembling any of those Hall-of-Fame players in today’s NBA.

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But let’s stop and think about why that might be the case. Why is there a dearth of quality post play? It’s no doubt due to a combination of factors, but a huge part of it has to simply be because so many organizations have figured out the measurable value of getting to the free throw line and shooting three-pointers. Turns out, you can’t shoot threes from the post and it’s generally easier (and preferable) to get a guard to the free throw line in a pick-and-roll than a big man who may struggle from the charity stripe.

At any rate, Saunders’ comment is misleading to say the least. There are big men that can score in the post, and there are a few (most notably Andrew Bogut and Dwight Howard) who are still playing deep into the playoffs that do it pretty well when called upon. But their teams are also at their best when launching tons of three-pointers, and Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and James Harden are decent at that.

The more concerning comment is the one that concluded the article. Sure, a team can be “very efficient” playing “the other way”, which apparently means playing through the post versus an open, three-point heavy attack. But the whole reason that teams began playing “the other way” is for exactly that reason — it’s more efficient.

Saunders is getting to the point where he appears more than tone-deaf regarding three-point shooting and it’s importance for teams that are striving to be efficient. And to discuss playing “the other way” from the four teams that are remaining in this year’s playoffs (Golden State, Houston, Cleveland, and Atlanta) is pretty much the definition of arrogance.

But hey, at least Saunders didn’t tweet this…

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