Timberwolves losing late leads: Is it a problem?

After the tough loss to the Denver Nuggets on Friday — a game in which the Timberwolves led by 18 at one point in the third quarter — fans were once again bemoaning the tendency the team has of blowing late leads.

Coach Sam Mitchell was getting a good chunk of the blame. His substitution patterns are questionable at best, and the late game offense usually seems to simply be an isolation play for Kevin Martin or Andrew Wiggins. This type of offense isn’t conducive to winning unless a team has a transcendent offensive star along the lines of a LeBron James or Kevin Durant.

Is all the fury about the Timberwolves blowing leads justified? Or is it just a part of the Wolves’ growth process?

That tweet from Jerry Zgoda may make it seem like the Wolves have been blowing big leads on a regular basis, but only half of those leads were lost in the fourth quarter. All of the other leads were lost earlier in the game, which isn’t all that surprising or damning considering basketball is a game of runs.

When just looking at games when the Wolves lead heading into the fourth quarter, they have blown four of those games. All four of those have come in the last 11 game stretch, which has made it seem like it’s happening regularly.

However, when looking at the big picture, that does not seem to be the case. The Wolves have held a lead heading into the fourth quarter nine times this year. In those instances, they have won five games while losing the aforementioned four. In addition, they have also recorded four victories when trailing after three quarters. The Wolves have as many wins when trailing heading into the fourth as they do losses when leading in the same situation.

Apr 13, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Zach LaVine (8) and forward Andrew Wiggins (22) talk during a free throw by the New Orleans Pelicans in the third quarter at Target Center. The Pelicans win 100-88. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

That is one very simple measurement that shows the Wolves are an average team. This matches up with several of the advanced stats this season, such as their offensive rating (101.9, which is 16th out of 30 teams according to nba.com/stats), defensive rating (102.4, 18th), net rating (-0.5, 17th), and record (9-13, which ranks 22nd).

The Timberwolves are also extremely young; three of their main contributors are 20 (twenty!) years old. The Timberwolves are going to lose games they should win. It’s something that average teams will sometimes do, but it’s also a consequence of all that youth.

It also isn’t necessarily a negative thing. These young players are learning how to play while holding a late lead, what works and what doesn’t, and how aggressive they should still be in those situations. Getting that bad taste of losing games they should have wrapped up will help them in the future. That’s what this season is all about: building for the future.

Even all of the criticism that Coach Mitchell is receiving isn’t entirely justified. Yes, his substitutions are head-scratching at times. Yes, the offense is fairly basic and predictable, even outside of crunch time. Yes, Karl-Anthony Towns should get more minutes. But consider the situation he is facing right now: not only is he trying to develop our young talent, but he’s also coaching to show that he deserves a chance as a head coach in this league. Trying to balance both is a monumental task.

I’m not saying that he has done a great job, but the circumstances he has faced are being overlooked by many.

The same offense that fans despise helps get the Wolves out to those big leads in the first place. Coach Mitchell should get some credit for helping to build those leads if he’s going to get all the blame when some of them fall apart. He has been put in a very difficult situation, and even if he’s not doing as good of a job as fans would like, he also hasn’t been doing absolutely awful.

Even the basic late game offense has a positive in that it’s giving Wiggins some valuable crunch time experience early in his career. He’s learning through his mistakes, which will make him a deadly closer in the future.

Next: Evaluating Sam Mitchell's Performance So Far

The Wolves have been blowing some big leads in the fourth quarters of their games, and that is understandably frustrating for fans. It will inevitably happen again, but instead of looking for someone to blame for another blown lead, remember that the Wolves are still extremely raw.

As long as the young players keep developing, every game is a win for the Timberwolves.