Timberwolves’ Towns Separates as Top Rookie in December
If November saw national media portray a two-way race for NBA Rookie of the Year between the Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks’ Kristaps Porzingis, December saw Towns establish himself as firmly in the top spot.*
Unfortunately for Wolves fans, December also saw fellow rookie Nemanja Bjelica, who arguably was a top-five rookie through November, crashed in December due to injury and poor production.
Towns, who had an impressive first month for a rookie, was even better in his second month, as you’ll see in the table below:
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Towns shot 50 percent or better from the field in 14 of 16 December games, and his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) increased from 21.3 to 22.3, placing him 17th in the NBA — right below Kyle Lowry and just above Chris Bosh.
Here is a look at how Towns stacks up against other top rookies in some key stats. To qualify for the lists below, a player must have averaged at least 15 minutes per game and played in at least 16 contests.
Top 5 Rookies, Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
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Top 5 Rookies, eFG%
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Top 5 Rookies, Win Shares/48 Minutes (WS/48)
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Top 5 Rookies, Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)
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I believe the top rookies so far are the four big men atop the PER list. Here’s how they compare, adding in their rebound, assist, and block percentages:
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Jokic’s numbers may be more comparable to Towns’ than Porzingis’, but Jokic is doing his damage in fewer minutes. Towns, Porzingis, and Okafor are averaging 29, 27, and 32 minutes per game, respectively, while Jokic is at just 19.
I rank Towns as a clear #1, followed by Porzingis, Jokic, and then Okafor. Okafor is harder to evaluate since he has so little talent around him, but while he leads rookies with 17.3 points per game, he hasn’t shot well or otherwise been highly productive, nor has he shown much on defense.
Both Hollis-Jefferson and Cauley-Stein also have been productive and efficient, but have missed significant time. D’Angelo Russell has not wowed anyone but his numbers are solid, particularly for a 19 year-old guard.
Bjelica, on the other hand, had a month to forget. He fell from 7.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game in November to 2.1 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 0.7 assists per game. His field goal percentage dropped from 46 percent in November to just 32 percent in December.
Here are five rookies to watch moving forward:
Bobby Portis (CHI) – After playing a total of 27 minutes in the Chicago Bulls’ first 24 games, Portis has averaged about 20 minutes per game since. He is grabbing rebounds as expected, but what’s surprising is the number of shots he’s taking. Portis’ usage rate is 28.4, which is the highest among all rookies with 14+ minutes per game.
Boban Marjanovic (SAS) – The 27-year-old Spurs rookie has a PER of 32.2, higher than Stephen Curry’s. Of course, that’s in just seven minutes per game, but Marjanovic is showing signs that he could be another gem unearthed by San Antonio.
Devin Booker (PHO) – Towns’ former Kentucky teammate is still shooting the lights out, hitting threes at over 54 percent. He saw his minutes per game jump from 12 in November to 19 in December and he only turned 19 on October 30th.
Mario Hezonja (ORL) – Hezonja has only received 12.5 minutes per game so far but improved across the board in December, most notably improving his field goal percentage from 36 to 61 percent.
Tyus Jones (MIN) – The Wolves have put Kevin Martin on the trading block and shifted more of Zach LaVine’s minute to shooting guard, in part to give Jones time at the point. He hasn’t shown much yet but looks to get a real opportunity to develop.
Next: Timberwolves New Year's Resolutions
* Throughout this post, “November” also includes October 2015 games.