Timberwolves Draft Notes: History of the fifth pick since 2000

It’s that time of year again for Timberwolves fans, in which we analyze draft prospects and dream of what they’ll become and how they’d fit on the team.

By this point, the rap beats from DraftExpress videos are no doubt sticking in people’s heads. Prospects are being compared to NBA greats and career ceilings are being projected.

Realistically, however, what should we expect from the fifth pick in the NBA draft? Let’s take a look at all the #5 picks since 2000 for a historical perspective.

Win Shares (per basketball-reference.com) /

You know your analysis is a cluster when Mike freaking Miller is on the top of your chart, above Kevin Love & Dwayne Wade (I know it’s technically spelled Dwyane Wade but just because they made a typo on the birth certificate I have to misspell it the rest of my life? I think not).

Seriously, I sort of remember Mike Miller winning ROY, but a better rookie season than Wade?! Sheesh, not too sure about that.

Another stat that pops out at me are the five players at .2 or lower as rookies, including Nikoloz Tskitishvili just straight up showing off at -1. You know you’re a draft bust when your name contains 19 letters but even NBA aficionados can only pronounce the first four of them. No joke, he was the third ‘Nikoloz’ listed when I searched for him on Wikipedia to see where his washed-up NBA career had allegedly taken him. Denver’s GM at the time, Kiki Vandeweghe, pretty much got fired for picking him.

But back to the chart; basically one-third of the players gave virtually no contribution to their team in their first year. The average Win Share amount was 2.04, which is right where Ricky Rubio came out. To put that number in perspective, Robert Covington and Gerald Henderson each provided two Win Shares this past season. Yikes.

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So the average rookie year contribution of the fifth pick is equivalent to a consistent, albeit limited role player. On the plus side, there are a lot of solid players on this list including four All-Stars (Wade, Love, Cousins, and Harris) and 1 surefire Hall-of-Famer (Wade). Also, I was always a fan of Jason Richardson and am a little surprised he never made an All-Star team.

In review, based on analysis of the past 16 #5 picks, the selection has about a 25 percent chance of becoming an All-Star, a 33 percent chance of contributing nothing in Year One, but will most likely become at the very least a solid NBA player with a slim chance at a Hall of Fame-caliber career.

With that spoonful of statistics in mind, let’s bring this analysis into the context of whom the Wolves might select this year.

A common thread among Wolves fans is that we now have enough young talent stockpiled so it’s time to add more experienced, complementary pieces to the team. This strategy would lead the Wolves (if they keep the pick) to lean towards more seasoned college players like Buddy Hield or Kris Dunn.

They’ve each been linked to the Wolves’ pick in many a mock draft, including our own. There’s a perception that players like them would be ready to contribute much more in their rookie seasons versus younger, developmental type players like Dragan Bender or Marquese Chriss.

When reviewing the rookie year win shares of the fifth pick compared to their age, however, there is seemingly no correlation between the two.

RY WS by Age Chart (Per basketball-reference.com) /

We’re literally all over the map on this one. This proves that in the one and done era you can get a contributor or a bust from any experience spectrum.

Next: 2016 Mock Draft: Who Will Timberwolves Take?

So while the Wolves do have a stockpile of talented young players they may not want to just rely on a more experienced player to complement the roster. Considering this may be their final high lottery pick for some time (a guy can dream, right?), they may want to take that last swing for the fences before this team truly takes off.