The persistent murmurs surrounding a possible Ricky Rubio trade were at full force leading up to the 2016 NBA Draft after it was revealed that the Timberwolves were enamored with Providence point guard Kris Dunn.
Now that the #5 pick is in, speculators across the board are wondering if it is set in stone that Ricky Rubio will be traded with Kris Dunn now in the fold.
It is already known that his name was floated around in deals for Chicago shooting guard Jimmy Butler, and the team has also reportedly expressed interest in adding Denver power forward Kenneth Faried. While neither of those scenarios have panned out to date, the gears have obviously been spinning.
Conventional wisdom says that a deal is inescapable, if not imminent. In an NBA that values spacing above all else, it would seem like a death sentence for any offense to run with two brick-laying guards. If the Timberwolves are as adamant about winning immediately as has been assumed, it would seem pertinent for the team to reverse any such condemnations.
With Rubio’s trade value about as high as one could expect it to be during his career, the timing for a deal is perfect. His replacement is already on the roster and there are holes at shooting guard and power forward just gaping enough to be filled by a player befitting a trade for him.
However, convention is not always the wisest form of wisdom. While the newfound depth at the point guard position gives the team the flexibility to pull the trigger on any trades that may be deemed a worthwhile value, there is not as much pressure on the team to make a move as the whispers would suggest.
From the front office perspective, the team has this off-season and the next to solidify its roster. It is after the 2017-18 season that Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine will expect to see their salaries balloon. Until then, the team can be patient. By all logical indications, the “win now” mentality that fans are expecting of the front office is more rhetoric than necessity.
With Rubio under contract for another three seasons, he lacks the leverage to force a trade even if he wants one. This isn’t a matter of “trade the guy now or risk losing him to free agency”, so Minnesota’s hands aren’t nearly tied.
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Given that Minnesota’s window for building a roster is at least another year or two, it seems counter-intuitive to suggest that Thibodeau shouldn’t be allotted time to try to figure out a working dynamic for his two point guards, particularly given the obvious advantages of retaining both.
In the case of an injury (remember that Rubio is only one year removed from missing 60 games), having multiple high-caliber point guards provides excellent insurance. Beyond depth, all but the best rookies tend to experience a learning curve. By keeping Rubio on board, Dunn would have all the time he needs to adjust to the NBA level and reach his potential.
The primary concern is that the two will not be able to function together on the court. While they have the potential to become the top defensive back court in the league, it is fair to question how they would mesh on offense.
However, there are two approaches that Thibodeau could take with his lineups to minimize concerns and maximize results while playing Dunn and Rubio together.
First would be an inside-out offensive scheme with Karl-Anthony Towns at the center and a floor-spacing power forward such as Bjelica (perhaps even Wiggins could move up to the four-spot to make things that much weirder). Regardless of who mans the small forward role, this lineup would be devastating in transition and pick and roll situations. If Wiggins is ready for a role that requires such defensive versatility, it could be a legitimately dangerous lineup for opponents.
The second option would be a slowed down, iso-oriented approach. Offensively, the team would look to get easy baskets in transition before deferring to Wiggins, Towns, or LaVine in half court situations. Gorgui Dieng and any other defense-minded backups that the team acquires this off-season could provide starters with a rest while limiting the opposition’s ability to go on a meaningful run, letting several minutes pass without seeing the score swing heavily.
Pairing Rubio and Dunn in the back court could also be a way to force weak perimeter defenders into unsavory situations.
Imagine, for instance, that the Timberwolves are taking on the Houston Rockets. Normally, Patrick Beverley would be asked to defend his opponent’s best guard while James Harden would be given breathing room on a lesser option.
With two capable pick-and-roll operators on the floor, the Timberwolves could force Harden to stay involved by forcing the ball towards him. If Houston didn’t want to test his luck defending the pick and roll, he would be forced into a bad match-up against whomever the Timberwolves lined up at the three (likely Wiggins or LaVine). Meanwhile, the Timberwolves would have two top-tier defensive guards ready to lock him down on the other end.
Stephen Curry. Kyrie Irving. Russell Westbrook. There is no shortage of dynamic scoring guards that a Dunn-Rubio lineup could make a difference against on both ends. Such prolific basket-getters can’t always be stopped, but the Timberwolves would be on the shortlist of teams that could slow them down.
Next: What Is Ricky Rubio's Value To The Timberwolves?
It is completely possible that the Timberwolves trade Rubio, but don’t be surprised if the team opts to keep him for another year. In fact, don’t be surprised if that year goes so well that the team decides to keep him for the long haul, too.