ESPN’s Kevin Pelton projects the 2016-17 Timberwolves

The fantastic Kevin Pelton of ESPN Insider has posted his in-depth analysis of each of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ individual players.

Back in early July, we saw ESPN’s Summer Forecast series project the Wolves as a 39-win team. Then, Kevin Pelton and Co. released their ESPN Real Plus-Minus projections for the upcoming season, which saw the Wolves as 37-win squad. (Pelton hedged this by saying that RPM is unable to factor in the addition of Tom Thibodeau, and that a 37-45 record is probably low.)

And now, Pelton is going team-by-team and releasing detailed projections of each and every rostered player across the NBA. Monday was the Timberwolves’ turn.

This is once again an Insider post, so we can’t regurgitate everything here, but I’d like to pull out a few notable excerpts and provide a bit of commentary on them.

First, Pelton continues to perhaps the most rational national media member regarding Ricky Rubio‘s positives and negatives.

"Though he plays for the Timberwolves, Rubio is a basketball fox. Why? He knows many things. There’s passing, of course. Rubio is not only a prolific passer who delivers the ball on time and on target to open teammates. There’s also defense, where Rubio’s ability is underrated. Because of his size (6-foot-4), Rubio remains capable of affecting a shot even when he’s beaten off the dribble, and he led the league with 3.5 steals per 100 plays. He’s also an excellent defensive rebounder for a point guard, and his defensive rating in ESPN’s real plus-minus ranked second at the position.But there’s that one, big thing Rubio doesn’t know: how to make baskets. He actually made a career-high 62 3-pointers last season at a 32.6 percent clip, but opposing guards can comfortably play off him because Rubio’s release is so slow. More than his outside shooting, though — Rubio has actually become fairly adept at the pull-up jumper off the dribble — his finishing is a problem…"

There’s another paragraph-plus on Rubio at the above link if you’re an ESPN Insider, but this is a fair analysis of what the Spaniard brings to the table as a starting point guard.

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A passing savant? Yep. A fantastic defender and defensive rebounder? Check. A poor shooter? Absolutely, although Pelton points out that he more or less improved across the board last year, save for finishing at the rim.

Wolves fans that were holding out hope that three-plus years after the ACL tear Rubio might begin to finish with more explosiveness and confidence at the rim were sorely disappointed. It’s the type of skill that simply might not develop at this point, and will likely keep him from being an All-Star.

(Quickly, I’d like to point out that perhaps the most-frequent comp for Rubio, Jason Kidd, was only a 54.5 percent shooter at the rim, with only one extremely small sample size season at over 60 percent in his entire career. Rubio improved to 51.7 percent at the rim last year.)

Moving on, Pelton discusses Zach LaVine‘s value as an up-and-coming shooting guard who would improve even more rapidly if he could eliminate all of the off-balance, contested mid-range jump shots.

Pelton is also a realist when it comes to Andrew Wiggins, noting that his post game won’t be quite as valuable when playing heavier minutes at small forward, and that his defensive rebounding and off-ball defense needs to improve. Also, outside shooting is still an issue.

The praises of Karl-Anthony Towns were sung, of course, as well as the consistent value of Gorgui Dieng.

The bench, on the other hand, was a mixed bag. Kevin Garnett is still a question mark. Jordan Hill will be solid if not spectacular as a fourth or fifth big man, primarily at the four-spot. Cole Aldrich is fantastic on a per-minute basis but Tom Thibodeau will need to be careful not to overextend him.

Shabazz Muhammad likely will not be a fit with Thibodeau long-term, and Brandon Rush will be an adequate outside shooter who could fill Muhammad’s role in the rotation.

Related Story: Will Wolves Add More Shooters?

Players who should be contributors in short minutes according to Pelton include rookie point guard Kris Dunn, who should be able to score against other team’s backup guards. Plus, Pelton thinks that getting to the rim should be easier for Dunn in the NBA than in college due to spacing and hand-check rules.

Another player with a big year ahead is Nemanja Bjeclica, who Pelton thinks could be a contributor if he can clean up his foul trouble on defense and utilize his play-making ability more on the offensive end of the floor, rather than being a reluctant outside shooter.

Pelton also covers Adreian Payne (probably not an NBA-caliber player) and Nikola Pekovic (may never step on the court again), as well as giving a nod to Tyus Jones‘ potential as the team’s backup if Ricky Rubio is eventually traded.

Pelton is as high as anyone on the 2016-17 Timberwolves, and that shows through in his analysis of Minnesota’s roster. At the same time, however, he’s always the realist in the room, and understands that the hype has gotten a bit out of control on Andrew Wiggins, and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Zach LaVine.

That said, Pelton and his crew at ESPN Insider will be driving the Towns hype train, and that’s okay with me. Towns is the rare young star who excites the advanced statistics community, the old-school folks, and the casual fans all at once.

Next: Which Timberwolves Players Will Win Awards In 2016-17?

And that’s what Timberwolves fans have to hang their collective hat on as we continue to roll through the off-season and draw ever closer to training camp.