A longer look at the Timberwolves’ rotations
With three times more losses than wins, the Timberwolves seem destined for another cellar-dweller finish to the season.
After just 47 days, many Timberwolves fans have already given up on this season. And rightfully so — the majority of the time, this team is not very fun to watch.
The defense seems constantly lost, the transition defense is absolutely porous, and the “clutch factor” is non-existent. Though the future may still be bright, the present is bleak.
Recently, I wrote about the offensive struggles that have plagued Andrew Wiggins of late. However, all the blame does not fall on his shoulders. Basketball is a team game, and this team as a whole should be held accountable for their terrible start.
The Starting Lineup – Rubio, LaVine, Wiggins, Dieng, Towns
Net rating (Per 100 possessions)
| MP | PTS | FG% | 3P% | eFG% | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV |
| 388:26 | -8.7 | -0.037 | -0.058 | -0.055 | 0.008 | 2.2 | -2.6 | -0.4 | -2.2 | -1.1 | -1 | 1.5 |
The starting lineup is being outplayed in almost every single area, and by a wide margin.
Though the shooting percentages seem minimal they truly make a difference. This is shown by the fact that the Wolves starting lineup is being outplayed by nearly nine points per 100 possessions. Add in the fact that the opposition is out-shooting and out-rebounding the Wolves, and it’s apparent why this young squad is losing so regularly.
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The Timberwolves are currently tenth in the league in offensive efficiency, with a rating of 106.1. Being in the same class offensively as teams such as Portland and Boston is always a good thing.
However, the flip side to this is that the Wolves are currently 27th in the league in defensive rating (109.2). The only Timberwolves starter with an offensive rating higher than his defensive rating is Karl-Anthony Towns.
The Kris Dunn lineup – Dunn, LaVine, Wiggins, Dieng, Towns
| MP | PTS | FG% | 3P% | eFG% | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV |
| 108:51 | -2.3 | -0.075 | 0.076 | -0.088 | -0.055 | 10.3 | -4.4 | 3.2 | -7.1 | -0.7 | -3.3 | -1.8 |
This lineup is the Wolves second-most-used lineup and presents a bit of a mixed bag.
The upside to this group is that they out-shoot teams from beyond the arc and they out-rebound everyone on the offensive glass. But once again, there’s a downside: though it is an improvement over the starters, this lineup is still 2.3 points worse than their opponents, and the field goal percentage and assist differentials are horrendous.
It’s apparent that replacing Rubio with Dunn doesn’t really fix any of the teams problems, it simply redirects them.
The bench lineup – Dunn, LaVine, Muhammad, Bjelica, Aldrich
| MP | PTS | FG% | 3P% | eFG% | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV |
| 59:11 | 15.5 | 0.029 | 0.079 | 0.022 | 0.144 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 0.1 | -8.1 |
Though this isn’t a true bench lineup, because it features LaVine, it is the unit that Thibodeau features the most off of the bench.
That aside, this lineup is absolutely unbelievable. With just under an hour’s worth of playing time together on the court this seemingly mishmash of players is outscoring their opponents by 15.5 points per 100 possessions.
Throw in the fact that they’re better in every single area except for turnovers and it begs the question, why doesn’t Thibodeau play this roster more frequently? The answer might lie in the idea that Thibodeau seemingly has a hatred for bench players receiving minutes, or something like that.
The Tyus Jones death lineup – Jones, LaVine, Wiggins, Dieng, Towns
| MP | PTS | FG% | 3P% | eFG% | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV |
| 34:09 | 22.4 | 0.022 | 0.134 | 0.032 | -0.076 | 6.2 | -2.5 | 2.1 | 13.6 | 5.4 | -5.8 | -9.3 |
Though I asked the same question about the last lineup, I just have to ask it again. Why is this lineup not seeing more floor time?! It’s the Wolves fourth-most common lineup combination but they’ve only logged a hair over 34 minutes together.
In those 34 minutes, they’re running teams off the floor, outscoring them by 22.4 points per 100 possessions! This is literally the Wolves most productive lineup, albeit in limited playing time.
The unique part of this lineup is that Wiggins often assumes the role of point guard, though Tyus still runs the offense part-time. This effectively makes Tyus a spot-up shooter and secondary ball-handler. Wiggins then runs the pick-and-roll, something that has proved semi-effective in crunch time.
Obviously, Tom Thibodeau knows more basketball than you or I, but there is something to be said for giving different rotations a longer look. The final two lineup combinations above are obviously influenced by a small sample size. However, they do demonstrate the Wolves’ ability to be an incredible basketball team.
Next: What's Wrong With Andrew Wiggins?
Let’s hope that Thibodeau sees this sooner rather than later.