What will the absence of starting shooting guard Zach LaVine, who is out for the season after tearing his ACL, mean for the Timberwolves in the near term?
Ever since being drafted 13th overall by Flip Saunders and the Timberwolves back in June of 2014, Zach LaVine has been a divisive figure.
First, there was the (completely unfair) criticism of LaVine’s demeanor on draft night after being selected by Minnesota. Then, there was the (mostly fair) criticism of spending a lottery pick on an athletic freak who didn’t even start on his college team in his lone season of college ball. Based on his freshman year at UCLA, of course, there wasn’t much evidence to suggest that he would contribute on the NBA level.
And lo and behold, LaVine was one of the worst players in the NBA as a rookie. In his second season, he transitioned to playing mostly shooting guard under interim head coach Sam Mitchell, and began to flourish towards the end of the year.
In his 47 games played before the knee injury during 2016-17, LaVine was a downright dynamic offensive player. Despite a January swoon that coincided with a hip injury, the third-year guard’s three-point shooting percentage was 38.7 and he carried a true shooting percentage of 57.6. Often playing with the second unit helmed by rookie Kris Dunn, LaVine was relied upon to give the bench group a scoring punch.
With the starters, LaVine was usually playing a spot-up shooter role — one that he excels at. He’s one of the better catch-and-shoot players in the NBA, and really only got into trouble on offense when taking forced and contested mid-range jumpers, although the frequency of those has gone down significantly since his rookie season.
As succinctly pointed out by ESPN’s Kevin Pelton in this (Insider subscription needed) article, LaVine is still a bad defender, and in terms of pure numbers, the Wolves were a better team when Zach was on the floor.
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But it’s never that easy. The loss of LaVine takes a sharpshooter off the floor, and a skill-set in which the Wolves still lack consistency is made even thinner. And setting aside immeasurables such as team chemistry and morale, the ripple effect of the loss of the starting shooting guard is unmistakable.
Brandon Rush is still a solid NBA player and a career 40.4 percent three-point shooter and performed well in LaVine’s brief absences earlier in the season. But he’s not dynamic, and his defense isn’t markedly better than LaVine’s — in a one-on-one situation, that is.
It’s entirely possible that within the team concept that is so important in Tom Thibodeau’s defensive system, Rush will be superior to LaVine. And therein lies the reason that the Wolves, once they steady themselves from the shock of losing LaVine, may actually be better for the remainder of this season than they may have been with Zach in the lineup.
Of course, the ripple effect means that Shabazz Muhammad, Tyus Jones, and possibly Dunn will be forced into larger roles off the bench. We don’t yet know how a Jones + Ricky Rubio or Jones + Dunn lineup will work over extended minutes, but we’re about to find out.
If it’s passable, and, as Pelton’s above-linked hypothesis holds true, Rubio could be more effective in not having to share play-making responsibilities with LaVine. And with improved team defense and similar overall shooting (splitting LaVine’s minutes between Rush and Jones shouldn’t hurt the overall shooting performance, at least), the team could weather the storm and still make a run at the .500-mark and a playoff berth come April.
Of course, next fall is a completely different question. LaVine being robbed of two-and-a-half months worth of games at the age of 21, a summer of development that is now filled with rehab, and what will surely be 12-18 months of playing at full strength, well, next October and November look very different than they did just a few days ago.
The contract situation will be intriguing, and you certainly feel for LaVine on a number of levels. But will this affect what Minnesota does at this year’s trade deadline? Or, perhaps more likely, during the off-season, whether it’s the draft, free agency, or via trade?
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At any rate, it’s a blow to the development of this still painfully young team. And while it’s likely that the tangible on-court impact likely won’t change all that much in February, March, and April of this year, the loss of LaVine has a significant impact on the Timberwolves entire operation.