Does Zach LaVine have a future with the Timberwolves?

It’s not hard to find some advanced statistics that suggest the Timberwolves could be better without Zach LaVine on the floor, but should a decision on his future be made in that vacuum, or is there simply much more to the story?

When Zach LaVine tore his ACL on February 3rd, it was a devastating blow for the team and it’s fans. He was the Timberwolves’ third-leading scorer as well as their best shooter, and, more importantly, you never want to see a young player go through such a major setback — especially in the midst of a career year.

Many thought the already disappointing Timberwolves would only get worse after losing him. Instead, the Timberwolves have played better, going 9-11 since the injury against much tougher teams, a vast improvement from the 19-31 record they had with him. This shouldn’t have surprised us all that much, as the stats always told the same narrative: the Timberwolves are better without LaVine on the court. Despite lighting up the scoreboard on a consistent basis, both the team’s rating improves on both ends when he is off the floor.

His negative impact on the less-glamorous end shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone; his defensive shortcomings have been obvious all season and the stats only confirm this. However, the team’s offensive regression when he is on the floor is surprising.

On paper, the two-time dunk champion would seem like a perfect fit, providing the team another scoring threat in transition while also being able to play off of Wiggins and Towns by spacing the floor. But as it turns out, the starting lineup improves by 3.1 points per 100 possessions when you replace him with Brandon Rush, a much more limited role player.

The problem seems to be that the bounce brothers (LaVine and Andrew Wiggins) have overlapping skill-sets and weaknesses: they are both dynamic scorers who still need to learn how to impact other areas of the game. As a result, they seem to marginalize each other on the court, not making for the best fit.

I’m not necessarily saying that the Timberwolves are certainly better off without him. At 22 years old, he’s already established himself as one of the best young stars and has improved every year he’s been in the league. Any team would be extremely grateful to have him and a torn ACL in no way changes that.

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However, Thibodeau will need to figure out how to properly use his talent and translate it to winning basketball and he’s going to need to do it quickly. Wiggins and LaVine will be eligible to contract extensions in October or else they will become restricted free agents in the summer of 2018.

Both seem almost guaranteed to seek a max deal, along with Karl-Anthony Towns, who is eligible for extension the following year. Those three max contracts would take up about 80 percent of the salary cap — a very large investment for a trio that has gotten outscored by 3.3 points per 100 possessions when on the floor together. Of the three, Zach LaVine is far and away the most likely to be the odd man out.

The optimistic fans will hope that Thibodeau finds a way to better utilize his talent. Perhaps LaVine could take on a sixth-man role. After all, playing against opposing benches while getting more opportunities in the second unit could definitely help LaVine. (As I recall, a couple future Hall of Famers tried this out in San Antonio and it turned out pretty good for them.)

It’s also encouraging to see that the best lineups featuring LaVine see him playing mostly with players off the pine, giving credibility to this solution. Thibodeau might not even have to tweak anything. Plus, Zach has improved every season and maybe he’ll start improving on areas of his game other than scoring, allowing him to git better with the young core.

He already possesses the athletic tools to be a great defender and should keep improving under Thibodeau’s tutelage. Sadly, the torn ACL will only complicate things, making it nearly impossible for Thibodeau to evaluate him next season since it usually takes a player around two years to fully recover.

Next: Why Did The Timberwolves Sign Omri Casspi?

With all of that taken into account, Zach LaVine’s future in Minnesota becomes highly questionable as the team enters a period in which it must make a tough decision on his fate.