The Timberwolves should let Shabazz Muhammad walk

Shabazz Muhammad has led the Timberwolves off the bench this season with 9.5 points per game. However, Minnesota is better off letting him walk at the end of the season.

Shabazz Muhammad’s contract is set to expire this summer, potentially leaving him as a restricted free-agent, meaning that Tom Thibodeau and his Minnesota Timberwolves have a huge decision looming about their spark plug off the bench.

Muhammad does not fit into the type of team the Timberwolves’ are looking to become. If they are smart, they will let him walk as a free-agent this off-season.

Thibodeau demands his players to consistently give effort on the defensive end of the floor. He doesn’t find it acceptable for a player to pick and choose when to play defense. Thibodeau also needs players to help space the floor for his two stars, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. This means that he is looking for the ever popular “three-and-D” wing. Shabazz Muhammad is definitely not that type of player.

Muhammad has played almost exclusively off the bench during his four years in the NBA, starting in only 14 of his 229 career games. Only one of those starts has come within the last two years.

This year, Shabazz Muhammad has taken a step back in his production from the previous two seasons:

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/5/2017.

His PER of 14.4 is the lowest since his rookie year. With 15 being the average PER, It means that he is playing at a below-average level this season. He’s also a below-replacement-level player according to the VORP stat.

As you can see on the chart above, Muhammad is contributing in fewer ways than in the past. He is grabbing fewer rebounds and generating fewer assists than the previous two years.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in dire need of outside shooting. With that being said, Muhammad is taking a higher percentage of his shots from behind the three-point line this season. After only shooting 28.9 percent from downtown last year he has jumped up to 35.4 percent this season. Muhammad is also making a career-high percent of his corner three-point attempts at 43.4 percent.

Although this may seem like positive production, I do not believe that it is sustainable for Muhammad. Throughout his career, he has been an inconsistent three-point shooter, twice shooting below 29 percent. He’s also an unwilling shooter from downtown, having never averaged more than two three-point attempts per game in his career.

Muhammad’s slower release also limits his effectiveness on the three-point shot. On the following play, Tyus Jones delivers a perfect pass right into Muhammad’s assumed shooting pocket. However, because of his shooting motion, Muhammad needs to bring the ball down, before bringing it back up again. This wastes precious time that players in the NBA don’t have.

Shabazz Muhammad struggles when a defender is within four feet of him on a three-point attempt, although he only shoots 0.1 of these shots per game. This means he shoots almost all of his threes with a defender at least four feet away, allowing the defender to sag into the lane and help on a Towns post-up or Wiggins drive.

When Muhammad is off the court the Timberwolves are a significantly better offensive team. The Wolves have an offensive rating of 110 when Muhammad is off the court compared to 105.1 when he is on the court. That 110 rating would rank fifth in the NBA.

The Timberwolves also have a higher assist percentage, assist to turnover ratio, and true shooting percentage when Muhammad is off the floor. I will acknowledge that some of this may be attributed to the fact that he gets most of his run while one of Towns or Wiggins is on the bench.

Muhammad’s defensive inability is the other reason the Minnesota Timberwolves should not re-sign him. He struggles to stay engaged throughout games on the defensive side of the ball, thus leading to the inconsistent effort.

Shabazz Muhammad is also stuck in between two positions. At six-foot-six he is not tall enough, nor strong enough, to guard most power forwards. However, when he steps out on small forwards he is not nearly agile enough to stay with them. This puts the Timberwolves in a difficult position on the defensive end of the court.

Muhammad’s defensive numbers are far from impressive; he only averages 0.5 steals and 0.1 blocks per 36 minutes. Both of those numbers are the lowest of his career. His defensive box plus/ minus also sits at -4.1, the second lowest of his career. Muhamad’s defensive box plus/ minus is the worst in the NBA for anyone who has played more than 23 games this season.

Regardless of Muhammad’s price tag in the off-season, the Timberwolves are better off letting him go. They need more players who are legitimate threats from downtown and are willing to play some defense.

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Overall, Muhammad has proven that there is no more growth in his game. Already at this point in his career, his production has stagnated. Unless something drastically changes, this is the player who he is going to be throughout his prime years. The Minnesota Timberwolves should want no part of it.