Minnesota Timberwolves: Hard luck kids of the NBA lottery

That’s the way the ball bounces

When diving deeper into this data, the Wolves still find a way to come out on the short end in this game of chance.

Here’s the same list of FLCs ranked in order of percentage of times they fell in position:

1. Minnesota Timberwolves: 50% of lotteries played have resulted in a drop.
2. Sacramento Kings: 48%
3. Washington Wizards: 47%
4. Charlotte Hornets: 41%
5. Golden State Warriors: 38%
6. Los Angeles Clippers: 35%
7. Toronto Raptors: 33% (tie)
8. Cleveland Cavaliers: 33% (tie)
9. Milwaukee Bucks: 31%
10. Philadelphia 76ers: 6% (Easy to Trust the Process with these stellar odds.)

Similarly, here’s a look at the percentage of times the teams moved up in position:

1. Wolves: 0% of lotteries played have resulted in a jump.
2. Kings: 5%
3. Cavs: 13% (tie)
4. Raptors: 13% (tie)
5. Bucks: 13% (tie)
6. Warriors: 14%
7. Wizards: 16%
8. Hornets: 18%
9. Clippers: 30%
10. 76ers: 41% (Say it with me now, trust the process)

In each of the above cases, the Timberwolves come out as the sorriest team of the bunch.

Glancing briefly at the numbers, the Sacramento Kings appear to be a close second, but let’s look even further into why the Wolves are the oil to the lottery’s water.

More Wolves Woes

For this interpretation of the data, I’ve used the same information found on the RealGM.com website.

First, I calculated the value of each team’s theoretical selection and compared it to their actual selection in each lottery.

For example, a hypothetical team with the third-worst record in the NBA can move up, move down, or stand pat:

• Standing pat nets a “0” score.
• Dropping to the fourth pick would net a “-1”.
• Winning the lottery results in a “+2”.

Therefore, if a team’s score is positive, they have had a tendency to not only move up, but move up quite a bit.

The second worst team that ends up with the first pick does move up the ranks; however, it’s not as impressive, or lucky, as the 11th worst team defying the odds and winning the lottery.

After tallying each team’s total lottery score, I then divided the sum by the number of lottery trips the team made over the last 30-plus seasons, which resulted in a final lottery average.

In short, higher negative numbers equal bad luck. Higher positive numbers equal good luck.

Surprise, surprise, Wolves’ fans, here’s what those calculations look like:

1. Wolves: -0.75 (This means that the Timberwolves have dropped an average of three-fourths of a pick for each lottery they’ve played.)
2. Kings: -0.57
3. Warriors: -0.38
4. Wizards: -0.26
5. Raptors: -0.26
6. Bucks: 0 (They’re most likely to stay put.)
7. Cavs: 0.27
8. Clippers: 0.43
9. Hornets: 0.59
10. 76ers: 1.11 (Philadelphia, on average, has moved up more than one pick in each of their 17 lottery appearances.)

The Wolves, again, take the top spot.

Out of all ten FLCs, Minnesota is not only the most likely to move down in draft position, but they are also the most likely to move the farthest down the board.

What did the Timberwolves ever do to deserve such bad luck?