Minnesota Timberwolves: Winning the lottery can fix the Wolves
By Jaime Tyler
The cream rises to the top
According to Basketball Reference, in the 32 lottery-era drafts since 1985, the first choice has produced:
- Five Hall of Famers
- Seventeen All-Stars
- Four NBA starters
- Two future stars (Wiggins and Towns)
- Three busts
- One TBD (Ben Simmons)
In fact, in comparing the first pick with sixth pick over the last 32 seasons, here’s what each has generated:
1st picks (1985-2017): 133 All-Star seasons, 96 All-NBA teams, and seven Hall of Famers (LeBron and Duncan are locks)
6th picks (1985-2017): nine All-Star seasons, two All-NBA teams, no HOFers
That’s a difference of 125 All-Star Games, 94 All-NBA teams, and (at least) seven HOFers.
Here’s what the typical number one lottery-era pick looks like over the course of his career: 4.15 All-Star appearances, 3 All-NBA teams, and about a twenty-percent chance to end up in Springfield, Massachusetts.
In comparison, the run-of-the-mill sixth pick averages these diminutive numbers: 0.28 All-Star appearances, 0.06 All-NBA teams, and a long shot to make the Hall.
To list, here are some of the players chosen first overall during the lottery years:
1st pick: David Robinson, Shaquille O’Neal, Tim Duncan, Allen Iverson, LeBron James, John Wall, Kyrie Irving, and Anthony Davis.
On the other hand, here are some of the players that fell to number six:
6th pick: Joe Kleine, William Bedford, Doug Smith, Sharone Wright, Josh Childress, Martell Webster, and Johnny Flynn.
Sounds like a case of Who’s Who versus who’s that?
That said, the top spot has, at times, produced the occasional bust — Kwame Brown, an injury-prone Greg Oden, and Anthony Bennett. Likewise, the sixth pick has produced some All-Stars — Wally Sczerbiak, Tom Gugliotta, and Antoine Walker.
While there are sometimes exceptions to the rule, the sheer talent available at the number one choice is historically undeniable.