Timberwolves’ Andrew Wiggins will eventually be elite

Timberwolves wing Andrew Wiggins has been a polarizing figure since entering the NBA, but it’s clear that he will continue to improve and eventually become an elite player.

When the Timberwolves traded away Kevin Love, the main part of the deal was the recent number-one overall draft pick, Andrew Wiggins. Don’t get me wrong, Anthony Bennett, Thaddeus Young, and a trade exception were all (in theory) nice pieces, but Wiggins was what got the deal done.

At the time, Wiggins was one of the most promising wing prospects to enter the draft. A consensus number-one pick, he set a load of records in his one year at Kansas. Wiggins coming to Minnesota was the catalyst to the youth movement which the team looks to reap the rewards from. However, since that trade, it’s fair to say that Wiggins has not lived up to his potential.

First of all, before you start getting upset with me, I’ll add that I am definitely not going to go on a Wiggins bashing binge. This is a young man who scored 23 points per game on a team with an offense that’s spacing could have fit on a postage stamp.

However, there are definitely some ways which will help Maple Jordan live up to the hype he had entering the league.

Defensive Potential

Andrew Wiggins entered the draft as a long, tall wing prospect. There were comparisons with some of the greats, including Scottie Pippen. His pre-draft measurements were 6′-8.75″ in shoes, 7′-0″ wingspan, 8′-11″ standing reach.  For comparison’s sake, a center like Anthony Davis measured at 6′-10.5″ in shoes with a standing reach of 9’0″.

Wiggins definitely has the physical tools to be a great defender. However, what we have seen throughout his career is a little different:

Scottie Pippen he is not. At the same time, Andrew Wiggins is not a terrible defender. Since his rookie season, he has had the job of defending the opponents’ top wing. Around the perimeter, he hasn’t done a bad job. However, when the opponent gets within 15 feet of the basket, Wiggins’ strength becomes an issue. With Wiggins as a defender, opponents score at 63 percent success rate within 15 feet.

Wiggins’ strength on the interior is something that will be fixed throughout numerous off-seasons. Another way his defense will improve is with another off-season under Tom Thibodeau and his system. Andrew Wiggins is a reactor on defense, so an off-season to focus on defensive schemes and positioning will help the forward on the defensive end.

With strength, both physically and between the ears, we may see Wiggins begin to use those physical tools that excited the league before his rookie season.

Scoring

Andrew Wiggins has been a gifted scorer in the NBA since his debut. However, he is a one-dimensional scorer.

This is something that has to change if we are to see Wiggins turn into the player that many expected to see. With the big dog in Karl Anthony-Towns, an athlete to run with on the wing in Zach LaVine, and an upcoming top-seven draft pick, Wiggins is not the number-one option on offense anymore. He will need to work more as part of the offense and deliver versatility to the side.

Put simply, the Wolves are a horrendous three-point shooting team. In fact, the Timberwolves were the worst team in the league throughout the regular season when it came to knocking down long-balls. To Wiggins’ credit, however, his three-point percentage has increased every season and he is taking two more attempts a game than he did in his rookie year. In the last fifteen games of the season, he shot 38 percent in about four attempts a game.

However, too many of Wiggins’ shots still come from the mid-range. 25 percent of his shots are between 16 feet and the three-point arc, compared to only 18 percent from three-point territory. If Wiggins can start to turn some of these long twos into threes then the offense will run a lot more smoothly.

Another aspect of Wiggins’ offensive game that is likely to improve is his play-making.

Passing Potential

Andrew Wiggins’ assist rates have never been great. His 1.9 assists per game post All-Star break is borderline horrendous for someone who has the ball in his hands so much. In the modern-day NBA, ball movement is key. Having a potential black hole on offense as your primary scorer is not beneficial.

However, Wiggins is making improvements. Small improvements, sure, but improvements none the less. Plays like the one below from March of 2016 are ones the rookie Andrew Wiggins would definitely not have passed off.

Only around seven passes per game from Wiggins ended in teammates shooting the ball. Wiggins needs to continue to develop in letting the offense run through him, not despite him. Nylon Calculus’ Andrew Johnson previously wrote about the relative importance of shot creation vs shot making:

"“The higher COV on passing efficiency within positions indicates that passing efficiency is a measure with some real separation in talent. Further, the outliers on the upper end tend to line up with the players we think of as stars. With Draymond Green, LeBron James, James Harden and Russell Westbrook all leading the league in their respective positions by this metric. The somewhat more traditional points created by assists per turnover also shows more separation and variance by position than any of the scoring play types do in efficiency as well.In fact, Justin Willard’s research found that there is an interactive quality between scoring and passing proficiency; being a superior passer increases the impact of a player’s scoring and vice versa. The idea being that those high volume scorers and passers are typically the players putting pressure on the defense, drawing double teams and disrupting their opponent’s defensive scheme.”"

If Wiggins’ passing improves, then his scoring has the potential to take yet another leap and become truly elite.

Summary

Of course, Wiggins is not expected to make all of the above leaps in one off-season. If Andrew Wiggins can continue to improve on his play-making, defense, and shot selection, then he will become the player which many expected of him.

Next: KAT Has Every Right To Be Upset With All-NBA Snub

Wiggins has time to develop with the young Wolves and his ceiling is as high as almost any young wing in the league.