What does historical success of #7 pick mean for Timberwolves?
The Minnesota Timberwolves are looking to make a difference with the #7 pick this year, but there’s some grim news awaiting the Wolves on the history on the seventh-overall pick.
For some teams, a pick in the top-10 would be a chance to add some serious talent to their already competitive team. For the Timberwolves this year, its about adding the final piece of the playoff puzzle.
With a team already bursting at the seams with young talent, the Timberwolves seem to just need one little thing to get them over the line, and maybe that’s what the draft will bring us.
Taking a look back at history, however, things don’t look so bright for the Timberwolves. No player picked seventh in the draft since 2013 has ever been to the playoffs. This means a lot, as some of these teams have been in the same position as the Wolves: full of young talent and on the fringe of a playoff berth.
Perhaps the most grim news is that only two players since 1999 have ever made the playoffs in their rookie season, and only one saw postseason game time. The one exception is Harrison Barnes, who along with fellow seventh-pick Steph Curry were eliminated in the conference semifinals in Barnes’ debut season, and later won a championship together in 2015.
Sure, these may just seem like meaningless stats, and perhaps records are made to be broken, but what it does say is that teams granted the seventh pick are usually not in a position to be contenders the following season.
The Timberwolves are lucky enough to feature crazy amounts of talent for such a young team. The roster boasts two Rookies of the Year and a two-time dunk champion, for crying out loud. But despite the talent, the Timberwolves just haven’t been able to win enough games.
Since the beginning of the Timberwolves “Big Three” in 2014, the team’s respective records have been 16-66, 29-53 and 31-51. As the talent grows older, the record improves, and had Zach LaVine avoided injury this past season the wins may have ended at a higher number, but is a number-seven pick enough to push us across the playoff line?
Statistically — since 1999, at least — it hasn’t. Even Harrison Barnes, breaker of the pick #7 playoff curse, averaged less than 10 points a game in his rookie season, despite starting all of his appearances. While he may have contributed, it seems likely that Golden State would’ve made the playoffs without the seventh pick that year.
It was in the playoffs where Barnes came alive, averaging 16.1 points per game and advancing Golden State through the first round.
Its fair to say that the Timberwolves need one more piece of the puzzle to make their playoff dreams come true, and the #7 pick may be just that. Will it be Jonathan Isaac, as our staff predicted, or someone entirely different?
Next: ESPN's Jeff Goodman on Wolves' #7 draft slot
History is against us, but the Timberwolves are ready and in a good spot.