In the aftermath of the “Trade of the Summer” the Wolves’ championship timeline needs to be adjusted. What does this trade mean for the two seemingly different age groups on the club?
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ acquisition of Jimmy Butler has inspired myriad articles, tweets and video clips lauding the Tom Thibodeau masterstroke. It’s a bold move, one so rarely seen in Minnesota basketball, from the Wolves’ front office. Consequently, it affects the Timberwolves’ championship timeline.
Let’s examine just how the Wolves approach their upcoming window.
First of all, the Timberwolves will be better next year. One need not look farther than the nearest tweet to realize the Wolves made a franchise-changing trade on draft night.
ESPN’s Kevin Pelton gave the Bulls an F and the Wolves an A in his assessment of the blockbuster.
Zach Lowe, basketball writer extraordinaire, celebrates the move from the Wolves’ perspective in his recent piece.
And MinnPost writer, Britt Robson, beautifully breaks down the ways that Mr. Butler will positively impact the Wolves on and off the court.
Latest Wolves: Slobbering over Butler. https://t.co/jLbYExZ3mI
— brittrobson (@brittrobson) June 23, 2017
It’s true. National and local media love this move for the Wolves. Fans, experts, and NBA folks agree: the Timberwolves will be vastly improved next season.
However, some are still curious as to what this does to the Timberwolves’ timeline.
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Weren’t the Baby Big Three, the Bounce Brothers and KAT, the Target Center Trio, supposed to grow up, win titles, and grow old together in multiple versions of a Timberwolves’ logo over the next decade and a half?
Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins, and Karl-Anthony Towns are best friends, darn it. They were supposed to lead the Wolves and the woebegone Minnesota fanbase out of the doldrums of the Western Conference and to the NBA’s June mountaintop…just as soon as LeBron James and the Golden State Warriors rode off into the sunset.
Thibodeau and Scott Layden just made sure that would never happen when they shipped LaVine off to the Windy City.
Ah, what could have been…
The Bay Area Backlash
Tick tock. Tick tock. Do you hear that sound? That’s the league collectively resetting their championship timelines.
As the Golden State Warriors cruised through the Western Conference and thoroughly trounced the second-best team in the NBA in the finals; most of the rest of the NBA decided to plan for five years down the road, rather than next season.
In fact, the Warriors so meticulously dismantled the league this post-season, even contending teams were forced to reexamine their places in the NBA’s hierarchy.
Cleveland and LeBron? Check. General Manager James knows the Eastern Conference champs aren’t close to the Warriors, so he has been working the phones hard this summer in hopes of landing the likes of Butler, Paul George, or old friends Dwyane Wade and Carmelo Anthony.
The Boston Celtics and Danny Ainge? Uh-huh. Ainge had a chance to get Butler, may still get George, was rumored to be offered Kristaps Porzingis, and he still did not bite on any offers for, among other reasons, the notion that no matter what they do, they’re not beating the Warriors any time soon. The Celtics are hoarding assets for a post-James, post-Golden State world.
The Spurs and Gregg Popovich? Yup. They, too, have been linked to Paul George. There have also been rumors of them making space for the other Paul, Chris that is. The perennially dangerous Spurs need more ammo as well.
As you can see, contending teams are either putting on the brakes or stockpiling more talent.
On the other hand, up and coming teams have decided to go with a full-on youth movement. The Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Lakers, and Sacramento Kings are where the Timberwolves were a year or two ago: giving as many young, talented players the opportunity to play lots and lots of NBA minutes.
The understanding being, Golden State is here to stay, so why rush our process or The Process?
Zig When They Zag
While the majority of the league is preparing for Golden State’s foursome to climb over the NBA hill, the Timberwolves made a win-now move in the face of the NBA’s juggernaut.
Or did they?
It was common logic around the league that the Wolves would hone their young core, modeling themselves after the Warriors or the what-could-have-been Oklahoma City Thunder. Youthful, cheap, homegrown talent waiting to come together in championship form.
LaVine, Wiggins and Towns were about to enter this season just old enough to buy a craft beer at your local brewhouse, and wouldn’t be fully ready to contend for a championship for another three or four seasons, at the earliest.
Lest we forget, this trio had amassed 29 and 31 wins over the past two seasons. They were nowhere near the playoffs, let alone championship contention.
Yet, the high-flying displays of LaVine, the 40-point Wiggins’ outbursts, and the Hall of Fame beginning to KAT’s career had media, NBA folks, and fans just waiting for the Timberpups to become the Timberchamps, soon.
Tom Thibodeau had other plans.
Thibs decided to zig when the rest of the league was zagging. Though, he did so, not to abandon their once bright future, rather to enhance what the Wolves will one day become.
Sure, we could get into other reasons why Thibs pulled off the trade: the fact that the Wolves have a 13-year playoff drought, the organization is undergoing a major logo and uniform overhaul and needs a shot in the arm or the fact that Target Center has been a dud of a building to watch a basketball game in over the past several seasons. All of those would be dandy reasons to bring in a three-time All-Star and All-NBA talent.
The Wolves, however, brought in Jimmy Butler to win themselves a championship.
Championship Timeline
Naysayers may argue, “the Wolves won’t be winning a championship over the next two years with Golden State lurking in the West!”
Guess what, naysayers, you’re absolutely right.
However, this team will get to the playoffs over the next two years, gaining valuable experience against teams, like the Warriors, Spurs, and Rockets, that they will eventually overtake when the time comes.
In fact, the LaVine, Wiggins, Towns-led Wolves may have missed the playoffs again next year in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. After a new logo, Target Center renovations, two years of Thibs, and multiple years of experience from their core; such a blow may drive fans, players, and even renown coaches away from downtown Minneapolis.
The Butler move nearly assures a playoff berth.
“Yeah, but,” the curmudgeon continues, “then Butler will be too old and we would be better off with the younger LaVine. Plus, the ages of Butler and KAT and Wiggins don’t match up very well at all.”
Maybe, maybe not. Let’s examine the ages of the “Big Threes” (or four) over the past number of championships.
Big Threes and Big Rings
- 2017 (Golden State Warriors — two-year gap): Kevin Durant (28), Steph Curry (29), Klay Thompson (27), Draymond Green (27).
- 2016 (Cleveland Cavaliers — seven-year gap): LeBron James (31), Kevin Love (27), Kyrie Irving (24)
- 2015 (Golden State Warriors — two-year gap): Steph Curry (27), Klay Thompson (25), Draymond Green (25)
- 2014 (San Antonio Spurs — 16-year gap): Tim Duncan (38), Kawhi Leonard (22), Tony Parker (32)
- 2013 (Miami Heat — three-year gap): LeBron James (28), Dwyane Wade (31), Chris Bosh (29)
- 2012 (Miami Heat — three-year gap): LeBron James (27), Dwyane Wade (30), Chris Bosh (28)
- 2011 (Dallas Mavericks, an exception amongst the bunch. A one-man-show in this title run, but here are three players anyway): Dirk Nowitzki (32), Jason Kidd (38), Tyson Chandler (28)
- 2010 (Los Angeles Lakers — six-year gap): Kobe Bryant (31), Pau Gasol (29), Derek Fisher (35)
- 2009 (Los Angeles Lakers — six-year gap): Kobe Bryant (30), Pau Gasol (28), Derek Fisher (34)
- 2008 (Boston Celtics — two-year gap): Kevin Garnett (31), Paul Pierce (29), Ray Allen (31)
All in all, most championship Big Threes have at least a couple of years in between them, and sometimes several years that separate the champion’s main players.
One can find more examples further back in the NBA annals: The Shaq-Kobe Lakers and the Robinson-Duncan Spurs come to mind as instances where a couple of the best players were not of the same NBA generation.
Based on those last ten championship, however, these are the average age windows:
- Average age of Big Three: 29.4 years old at the time of the championship
- Average gap between oldest and youngest members of Big Three: 5.7 years difference
Here’s how the current Timberwolves’ Big Three — Jimmy Butler (27), Andrew Wiggins (22), Karl-Anthony Towns (21) — compare:
- Average age: 23.3 years old
- Age gap: Six years
A couple of numbers jump out during this age-analysis of championship timelines.
One, the Timberwolves’ age gap is on par with the other championship winners over the past decade. In most cases, teams have a variety of ages come together to form a title contender. Rare is the case, such as in Golden State, where all of their core players are within two years of each other.
Golden State is the exception here. They should not be the model.
In truth, a far more reliable route to a title consists of talent, youth, veteran leadership, and a variety of role players. That’s exactly the model that Thibodeau has been preaching and now practicing with the Butler heist.
Two, the young Wolves are still a few years away from even sniffing a championship.
Even the uber-young Warriors of 2015 had an average Big Three age of 25.6 years old. That’s two and a half years older than the average age of the current Wolves triumvirate.
In other words, in three years, the Wolves will be where the Warriors were when they won the title in 2015.
So, let’s put the Wolves there. Let’s say in two and a half to three years, they’re ready to contend for a championship: that’s the 2019-2020 season.
May 2020
It’s May of 2020 and the Minnesota Timberwolves are facing off against the Golden State Warriors for the right to play the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2020 NBA Finals.
When that happens, here will be the ages of the teams’ best players:
- The Minnesota Timberwolves: Jimmy Butler (30), Andrew Wiggins (25), Karl-Anthony Towns (24)
- Average age: 26.3 years old
- The Golden State Warriors: Kevin Durant (31), Steph Curry (32), Klay Thompson (30), Draymond Green (30)
- Average age: 30.75 years old
The Warriors’ ages put them over the average championship timeline hill; whereas, the Timberwolves, as a unit, are just entering their prime.
That said, the Wolves are not guaranteed to overtake the Warriors at this point. The argument is that the Butler/Wiggins/Towns championship timeline matches up beautifully now and going forward.
Even if the Wolves bow out to the Warriors in the 2020 Western Conference Championship, they would be primed to become the next kings of the West at some point down the road.
For many years, that’s the way it has been in the NBA. The Warriors had to overcome the Spurs, the Spurs had to enact revenge upon the Heat, the Heat had to beat the Celtics, and on and on back through NBA history.
Dec 13, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Jimmy Butler (21) and guard Dwyane Wade (3)attempt to steal the ball from Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) during the second half at the United Center. Minnesota defeats Chicago 99-94. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports The Wolves will soon find themselves butting up against the Bay Area behemoth, ready to overtake them when the time is right.
Furthermore, once Jimmy Butler is out of his prime at 32 or 33 years of age, Wiggins and KAT will be 28 and 27 years old, just entering their NBA golden years.
At that point, it would be easy to bring in another free agent or a young talent to take over that third best player as Butler moves into the Andre Iguodala role for the future Timberwolves.
Consequently, that’s why their championship timeline matches up. Towns and Wiggins will learn from Butler and get valuable playoff experience. When Bulter is heading over the hill, KAT and Wiggins will be ready to lead the Wolves towards contention as they hit their primes.
Next: Tom Thibodeau's new challenge
As hard as it was for many Timberwolves’ fans to bid adieu to Zach LaVine, the move to get Butler does not interfere with the future championship timeline. In fact, it may just be the move that catapults Minnesota into the upper echelon of the NBA.