Dunking With Wolves
Fansided

ESPN’s real plus-minus projections puts Timberwolves fourth in West

By Ben Beecken

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - JUNE 27: Justin Patton of the Minnesota Timberwolves is introduced to the media by head coach Tom Thibodeau and GM Scott Layden on June 27, 2017 at the Minnesota Timberwolves and Lynx Courts at Mayo Clinic Square in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - JUNE 27: Justin Patton of the Minnesota Timberwolves is introduced to the media by head coach Tom Thibodeau and GM Scott Layden on June 27, 2017 at the Minnesota Timberwolves and Lynx Courts at Mayo Clinic Square in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

The ESPN real plus-minus statistic has ranked the Timberwolves as the fourth-best team in the Western Conference heading into 2017-18.

We’ve detailed Kevin Pelton’s thoughts on the Timberwolves quite a bit here at Dunking With Wolves, as the ESPN Insider has a fantastic track record when it comes to projecting out individual player performances as well as team win totals. Earlier this week, in fact, Pelton graded the Wolves’ off-season at an ‘A’, and as one of the better summers in the NBA.

Now, Pelton has released his win total projections based on ESPN’s real plus-minus statistic. As Pelton explains at the start of the column, the projection factors in an aging curve for veterans and young players are submitted to Pelton’s SCHOENE system, which translates NCAA and overseas statistics into NBA output.

Pelton also notes that his projections are incapable of factoring in positional switches. For instance, the New Orleans Pelicans are a much better team if Jrue Holiday plays point guard, but with the addition of Rajon Rondo, Holiday will undoubtedly play more at the two-spot. This projection simply takes Holiday as a whole into consideration, and not a worse version of Holiday that may mostly play shooting guard.

There could be a bit of this phenomena affecting the Wolves’ projection; Andrew Wiggins and Jimmy Butler could both be used as small-ball power forwards, and some combination of Karl-Anthony Towns, Gorgui Dieng, and Taj Gibson or Nemanja Bjelica would find at least one, if not two big men playing out of position.

PLAY FANDUEL: New users win first contest or get credited up to $120!

At any rate, let’s get to the prediction.

"4. Minnesota TimberwolvesProjected wins: 50.1Statistical projections have been known to overrate the Timberwolves by betting on the come, including last season’s seemingly conservative 37-win projection from RPM. (Minnesota won just 31 games, albeit with the point differential of a 38-win team.) With Jimmy Butler joining budding stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, this time feels different. RPM doesn’t even project the Timberwolves to defend particularly well (20th in defensive rating); this projection is largely a testament to the league’s second-best offensive projection."

That’s right, folks. The Timberwolves are projected as a 50-win team, which would slot them in at the fourth playoff spot, which is the final spot that would receive home court advantage in the first round.

The Oklahoam City Thunder end up just behind the Wolves with a 49.5-win projection, so it’s admittedly extremely close. The clear top-three in the West are, of course, Golden State (62.1 wins), Houston (55 wins), and San Antonio (52.6 wins). The Clippers are only slightly behind the Thunder in the six-spot, as well.

This seems about right. There is Golden State, and then a gap. Then there is Houston and San Antonio, and another gap. Then, the Minnesota-Oklahoma City-Clippers grouping, followed closely by Denver. And that’s seven of your eight playoff squads.

This projections feels pretty spot-on for the Wolves, and as Pelton notes, it only projects Minnesota to have the 20th-ranked defense. That would be a huge disappointment, of course, so this win total could end up being a bit low, depending on how Tom Thibodeau’s rotation works itself out.

Next: Karl-Anthony Towns Remains The Wolves Centerpiece

Of course, if the Wolves win anything in the range of 50 games this year, the season will be seen as a massive success. Jumps from 31 wins to 50+ don’t happen very often, but we just might be about to witness exactly that.

Home/Timberwolves News