Minnesota Timberwolves roundtable: Player progression and regression

The Dunking With Wolves staff weighs in on three questions surrounding the Minnesota Timberwolves.

1. Which Minnesota Timberwolves’ player do you expect to make the biggest leap?

Andrew Neururer (@ANeururer)- Andrew Wiggins will improve the most this season. There is so much potential still with him that he isn’t even close to a finished product. Every year he continues to improve his scoring, and it’s only the beginning. This offseason he continues to work hard on two specific areas that has really been a negative for him offensively. Those being 3-point shooting and ball-handling.

That’s been his main focus since entering the NBA – and it’s been noticeable. In his first two years, he averaged around 30 percent. This past season, he averaged around 35 percent. It’s not amazing, but seeing a five percent increase is a good sign for things to come. More importantly, better ball-handling with the addition of shooting should open a lot for him and his teammates.

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Playing alongside Jimmy Butler should be a huge investment in Wiggins game. We all saw him play a lot of one-on-one with Zach LaVine in practices, which really helped his offensive game. Now being able to do this with Butler, should teach him defense and offense at the same time. In games, Wiggins should be able to learn a lot as well from Butler. I think the addition of Butler and another year of Wiggins gaining more experience will unlock a whole new player we’ve all been anticipating.

Max Neuhaus (@Max_Neuhaus)- It feels like the easy answer here would be Andrew Wiggins. The Kansas product is bursting at the seams with potential. Everyone and their mother is expecting big things from him this season and rightfully so. He has Jimmy Butler to work with and can now be a true third option where I think he is best suited. I, however, am going in a different direction. Let’s look at a player off the bench who will have a much bigger role this season.

I’m talking about Tyus Jones. The former Duke Blue Devil has been a fan favorite ever since he was traded to Minnesota on draft night in 2015. Before he brought a national championship to Duke, Jones was a stud point guard for Apple Valley high school. With Minnesota fans excited about the hometown boy coming home, he has not seen a ton of playing time. That is all about to change.

If there is one thing head coach Tom Thibodeau loves, its determination. Jones has determination in bunches. He might not be the biggest or strongest guy on the court, but he is not going to be outworked by anyone. Last season, the second year player appeared in 60 games, many times alongside Kris Dunn. While Dunn seemed to be the better fit for the more defensive minded Thibs, Tyus made many more plays and showed to be a better player than Dunn.

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Thibs did not go out and get himself a backup point guard this offseason. He did that for a reason. Tyus is ready to lead this second unit and improve upon his four points and three assists average per game last year in a big way.  

Brian Sampson (@BrianSampsonNBA)- In the name of freshness, my biggest progression candidate is none other than Jimmy Butler himself.

Butler has improved his points per 36 minutes every single season of his career. That includes last season when he was placed at the center of an abysmal shooting scenario. I understand that Minnesota isn’t the best-spaced team. However, Jeff Teague and Andrew Wiggins look like outside studs compared to Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade.

Besides scoring, Butler took a step up in his playmaking and rebounding categories as well. He averaged career-high in assists and rebounds last season. Look for that trend to continue as he enters the height of his prime.

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He’ll also be extra-motivated to impress a new fan base and re-pay Tom Thibodeau for once again taking a chance on the three time All-Star.

2. Which player do you expect to see the biggest regression from?

Andrew- It’s hard to think what player will have the most regression when this team is so talented. The only way a player regresses in my mind is the idea of too much talent decreases their stats. If I had to take my pick, I would think that Jeff Teague will regress the most.

Last season, he averaged 15.3 points per game and 7.8 assists. That was with a team assembled with Paul George and Myles Turner. I think Teague will be able to increase his assist numbers to double digits in that regard. But, his scoring I feel will dip down to 10-12 points a game. There is just less need for him to score the ball in Minnesota. But, he can fill Rubio’s role in passing the ball nicely. With Towns, Butler, and Wiggins coming first – it’s hard to see where he would score 15 a night.

I don’t believe talent wise at 29-years old that he will decrease. I just think that with so many mouths to feed in that starting lineup, it will be hard for him to consistently score 15 points a night.

Max-This one is tough. After singing the praises of how well the Wolves have done this offseason, I am supposed to pick someone to lose a step?

If I’m going to give my regression prediction, why not go big?

My choice is Andrew Wiggins.

Before I get a million angry tweets my way, just hear me out. I don’t think Wiggins’ numbers are going to decrease dramatically, he just won’t take that next step that people are thinking he will.

Everyone is expecting the former number one overall pick to learn from Jimmy Butler and make a big jump at the defensive end of the floor. Just a thought, but what if he doesn’t? He might not be interested in being the third option on this team. Maybe he wants things to go back to last year, where Zach Lavine was the third option and Wiggins got tons of touches.

With the massive jump we are expecting from the former Jayhawk, would it even be considered a regression if he stays where he is? Being a 24 point per game scorer is very impressive in itself.

This current contract situation is a perfect case. If he was all in on his current role, don’t you think he would have flown in on the first flight to Minnesota when owner Glen Taylor said he would sign Wiggins if they talked face to face?

After saying all of this, I am going to say something I have never said before: I really hope I’m wrong.

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Brian- Jamal Crawford is my biggest regression candidate and for obvious reasons.

His age plays the biggest factor in this decision. He is 37 years old and undoubtedly has his best basketball behind him. Way behind him.

Crawford saw his points per 36 minutes average slip for the fourth consecutive year in 2016-17. He also shot under 42 percent each of those seasons. At this point in his career, he’s a high-volume, low efficient scorer.

In fact, if he’s able to score 12 or more points this season, he will become just the 19th player to ever do so after turning 37 or older during the shot-clock era. Which is why I expect to see his shooting percentage and overall play continue to dip this year.

3. Who wins the Northwest division this year?

Andrew- This is a really hard one to call. You have a lot of talent in the division. Each team brings their own specialty that you can’t think going into each game, “this is an easy win”. Portland has a nice tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Utah has a very familiar face to Minnesotan’s – Ricky Rubio and talented big man Rudy Gobert, Denver is young and talented, especially after adding Paul Millsap, and of course, Oklahoma City has MVP winner Russell Westbrook and added All-Star Paul George.

Each team could make a run at the playoffs, while it’s more likely Utah and Portland are fighting for the eighth seed. Ultimately, I think Oklahoma City takes the crown, with Minnesota creeping up on them by only a game or two. We don’t know what Minnesota can do this year, but we do know that they are talented. It’s solely based off a what-if stand point for Minnesota. I can’t see Minnesota not making the playoffs, but to win the division is another question. It’ll be a “can they gel together”, and “can Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns take the next step”.

Even though Westbrook struggles to get along with another ball dominant player (Kevin Durant), we do know what he is capable of. Durant and Westbrook were able to go to the finals one year and constantly make deep runs in the playoffs. Something I believe he and George can do this season as well. Westbrook alone took the team to a 47-35 record. It would be almost impossible to see George only helping the team to only three more wins.

Max-The Northwest division might be the best division in the NBA next year, with four teams possibly fighting for the postseason. Interconference games will be very exciting this season.

The Utah Jazz seem to be the ones to take the biggest step back with the loss of Gordon Hayward. While they did add Ricky Rubio, losing a star like Heyward is going to hurt, a lot. I think they finish last.

With one of the most exciting offseason additions, the Denver Nuggets immediately bring themselves into the playoff conversation. Bringing in Millsap to a team with players like Emmanuel Mudiay and Jamal Murray will bring this team wins. That isn’t even mentioning a huge piece in Nikola Jokic, one of the brightest young players in the league. This Nuggets squad would be higher in any other division, but they are at four on my list.

Portland lands at number three. Again, much too low for how good they are, but the squads ahead of them are pretty darn good too. With the dynamic duo of CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard (my personal favorite PG in the association) being able to, hopefully, play alongside big man Jusuf Nurkic for a full season will do wonders. When these guys get clicking, it will be scary good.

The Wolves are number two for me. I think they are gonna do really good things this year, but picking a team to go from the bottom of the division to the top is tough. The talent is unquestionable, but the chemistry is gonna take some time.  

The MVP Russell Westbrook adds a superstar running mate in Paul George. Enough said. Oklahoma City will top the Northwest division this season.

Brian- I agree with Max and Andrew’s assessment that the division is absolutely loaded this season.

I would love to pick Minnesota in this spot, however, I believe they are still a season or two away. With all the turnover during the summer, it will take some time for them to gel.  I’m unsure if that means they will start slow or just not start fast. Either way, it will give a team like the Thunder to jump the gun.

Russell Westbrook is a one-man wrecking crew who now has another All-Star to play with. This gives them the better one-two punch today. I also believe their team is better constructed to fit today’s game. They have put shooters like Patrick Patterson around their stars to help space the court. This difference will go a long way to ensuring a division crown.