Discussing the Timberwolves’ surprising preseason over-under

Las Vegas released the preseason over-under bets for the upcoming season, and while Timberwolves fans no doubt expected their squad to rise in the win column, Vegas appears to be expecting something more like a leap in 2017-18.

The Timberwolves are going to be one of the most-improved teams in the NBA this season, that much is obvious. But by how much will the improvement be in the win column?

We’ve all heard how rare it is for a team to jump ahead by anything in the neighborhood of double-digit wins; last year’s Wolves only made a three-win improvement from 2016-17. Philadelphia had the biggest leap, improving from just 10 wins the previous season to 28 a year ago. The Utah Jazz improved by 11 games in the 2017-18 campaign.

The Timberwolves won 33 games last season. This year’s over-under, set by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, is 48.5. Quick math, folks: if the Wolves were to move from 33 wins to beat their Las Vegas projection of 48.5, they would have to win an additional 16 games.

That’s nothing to sneeze at, of course. But the Wolves did add a three-time All-Star in Jimmy Butler at the height of his powers. They also replaced some replacement-level (at best) minutes at the ‘four’ with Taj Gibson, and jettisoned arguably their worst per-minute contributor in point guad Kris Dunn.

While it remains to be seen if Tyus Jones a) wins the backup point guard job and b) is significantly better than Dunn, it certainly appears as though the Wolves will be upgrading that role. The evidence from last season suggests that Jones has improved from his rookie year in the league and can be an average at best backup if his minutes are kept at a reasonable level.

The presence of Teague over former starter Ricky Rubio is a bit tougher to measure, as there’s an argument to be made that Rubio was the better player a season ago. The Wolves will argue that Teague’s offensive skill-set will fit the Timberwolves better than Rubio’s, especially in terms of floor-spacing, and indeed, it could be a slight improvement on that end of the floor. The downgrade defensively, however, could be damaging.

We don’t yet know what the bench will ultimately look like. Incumbent Nemanja Bjelica is still recovering from a foot injury and Gorgui Dieng will see his minutes trimmed with the addition of Gibson and continued emergence of Karl-Anthony Towns. The backup wings are much more of a question mark and we’ll know more in the coming weeks.

I’ll refrain from making a wins prediction here — the bench needs to finish taking shape first; the difference between, say, Tony Allen and Gerald Green vs. G-League flotsam would be significant — but the Vegas line seems a touch high.

Next: Melo Trimble's potential impact on the Timberwolves

That said, this team should be leaps and bounds better than any Wolves team we’ve seen since 2004. Not that it’s an incredibly hard feat to accomplish.