The Timberwolves will need to overcome a few growing pains in order to become a top-three seed out west come playoff time, but it’s within the realm of possibility.
With the season approaching, it is obvious that the Golden State Warriors remain the best team in the Western Conference as well as the in the league; they have grown and improved as a team while coming off their second championship in three seasons.
With the Warriors so dominant, the Timberwolves virtually have little to no shot at grabbing the top seed in the West to clinch home court advantage throughout the playoffs. However, the Wolves still have a good chance of claiming a top-four seed to get home court advantage in the first round.
A series win as a four-seed would mean that the Wolves would get a date with the Warriors in the second round, which they will be looking to avoid. As the two or the three-seed, the Wolves would clinch home court in the first round as well as avoid the Warriors in the Western Conference semifinals. In order for that to happen, the Wolves are going to need to make quick strides towards becoming a top-three team, and that beings during the preseason.
There are five keys in order for the Wolves to become a #2 or #3 seed in the West.
Improve on defense
Offense wins games, but defense wins championships. The most crucial thing the Wolves must do is improve defensively in order to contend with the top teams.
Last year, the Wolves were tied with the Kings for 18th in the league in points allowed, giving up 106.7 points per game. That came along with a -1.1 differential which certainly won’t cut it for a two or three seed in the west.
The young stars must start the season on the right foot. Karl-Anthony Towns must assert himself and become more of a defensive presence, which I’ll touch on some more shortly. Andrew Wiggins has a long way to go. He finished last season 460th out of 468 players with a -3.16 defensive plus/minus. Year two with Tom Thibodeau should surely help but it’ll take much more than just Thibodeau.
Also, the veterans will have to set a tone defensively for the young stars to match. Of course, Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler will have no issue doing so. In the last article I wrote I talk about Jeff Teague and how he isn’t as bad defensively some make him out to be. His athleticism should fit well with Thibodeau’s defensive schemes. Jamal Crawford finished last year with a -3.18 DRPM; however, he knows his role on this team and defense is not it. Gorgui Dieng was among the league’s best last year in defensive plus/minus, finishing 11th with a 3.52 DRPM.
The point is that it will take a total team effort on defense to finish ahead of offenses such as Houston and Oklahoma City.
KAT has an MVP-caliber season
Karl-Anthony Towns had an outstanding second season in the league. Count me as someone who believes that he could very well be a sneaky MVP candidate. However, previously mentioned, Towns needs to improve defensively in order to be in the conversation.
Last year, Towns finished 64th — dead last among centers — with a -1.41 DRPM. Sure, he led the team with 1.3 shots blocked and 12.3 rebounds per game, but those numbers are not enough to be able to look past his overall defensive rating and struggles in guarding one-on-one, especially in the post.
Towns needs to build strength in order to match-up better with some of the larger, more “true centers” in the league. Fouling was also an issue for Towns last season; he finished tied for 19th in the league averaging 2.9 fouls per game. Easing up in that department will help keep him on the floor longer and show growth in his defensive game.
It wouldn’t be all defense that gets him the MVP, of course. Towns needs to come back with just as good, if not a better offensive season in order to have a legitimate chance at the award. As long as he keeps playing beyond his years such as he has been, this isn’t too far-fetched.
The bigger picture here is how vital Towns’s role on the team is. Even with Jimmy Butler coming into the mix, Towns is still the franchise cornerstone. If he comes back this season in MVP form, the Wolves have an excellent chance at a two or a three seed.
Andrew Wiggins takes a leap forward
Towns isn’t the only one out of the two young stars on the team to struggle on defense. Just as I pointed out before, Andrew Wiggins has a long way to go to become a two-way player. However, his potential may allow him to take a large stride this season.
Although he was nearly last in the league in DRPM a season ago, Wiggins can learn from Thibodeau and Jimmy Butler to takes strides on defense. Wiggins already has a head start on improvement as he enters year two under Thibodeau. Adjusting to his style should only become easier from here.
His offensive game continues to improve as well. He has increased his points per game in each of his first three seasons in the league. Last year, he improved his 3-point range and found a more consistent shot that will only get better.
Wiggins has already shown flashes of his outrageous athleticism with some of his dunks. Beyond that trait, the rest of his game needs to become more consistent and on point in order to become the two-way star that Glen Taylor wants him to be. Wiggins will be able to take strides this season towards becoming the All-Star his potential is allowing him to become.
Jimmy Butler (and other veterans) contribute
The most crucial element to the Wolves finishing as the two or three seed is the veterans. And not just how well they play, but also how well they help develop and mature the young players.
Jimmy Butler brings with him all sorts of excitement. For one, he is a superstar on a league level, not just on the team. Secondly, he is an immediate fix on defense and will help groom the young players into defensive monsters. Third-year guard Tyus Jones may not be as athletic as Butler and Wiggins, but he can still shadow him and become an efficient defender.
Jamal Crawford adds much-needed three-point help, which we’ll revisit shortly. Taj Gibson brings with him a big body to battle down low; he finished 13th among power forwards last season with a 2.2 DRPM. Between him and Gorgui Dieng, the Wolves will have a much improved frontcourt.
Jeff Teague is a more dynamic and explosive guard than former point guard Ricky Rubio was. Teague is an obvious offensive upgrade while bringing with him defensive potential. His athleticism will definitely fit in on both sides of the ball.
The main goal is for the mix of youth and veterans to mesh together well. Nothing will matter unless they can collectively play well together. From that point forward, it is finding the proper rotations while maturing the young players.
3-point shooting improves
The final key to the Wolves earning a two or three seed in the West is for them to improve their 3-point shooting. Last season, Minnesota finished 20th in the league in terms of percentage, shooting .349 from behind the arc.
Jamal Crawford comes in as part of the solution. The three-time NBA Sixth Man of the Year brings with him a career .350 3-point percentage. Last season, he shot 36 percent from three, which would have put him fifth on the Timberwolves in terms of percentage.
With his arrival comes hopes that fellow newbies Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague will be able to shoot a decent percentage from three to help the cause. While Butler is just a 33.7 percent career shooter from deep, he hit on 36.7 percent last season and 37.8 percent two seasons ago with a rough year of 31.2 percent in between. Teague shot 35.7 percent last year in Indiana, and outside of an outlier in 2015-16 when he shot 40 percent from beyond the arc, he’s been fairly consistent with a career mark of 35.5 percent.
Tyus Jones should also see more playing time this year, and there has been some indication in limited playing time that he can shoot fairly well from 3-point range.. Karl-Anthony Towns is always a threat from three when he pulls the trigger, too.
Nemanja Bjelica is a factor as well. The stretch-four has seen solid playing time over his first couple of seasons with the Wolves. If he can improve his .316 three-point percentage from last year, the Wolves will be in even better shape.
Certainly, defense is the most vital improvement the Wolves need to make. However, to keep up with teams like the Warriors, Rockets, Thunder and Spurs, the Wolves will need to be able to shoot the lights out at times.
Next: Wolves Film Festival: Butler-Towns Pick-and-Roll
Neither the two-seed nor three-seed are out of the question for the Wolves. It’s a matter of if they can work at getting to that level in time by season’s end. Which, with this mix of players, can absolutely be done.