Dunking With Wolves
Fansided

Timberwolves Roundup: Projections, wrapping free agency

By Ben Beecken

LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 9: Andrew Wiggins #22 and Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves stand for the National Anthem before the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on April 9, 2017 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 9: Andrew Wiggins #22 and Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves stand for the National Anthem before the game against the Los Angeles Lakers on April 9, 2017 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2017 NBAE (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

As we near the conclusion of the NBA offseason, ESPN is coming out with a few analytics-based projections for the 2017-18 season. Plus, a few thoughts on the conclusion of free agency.

Objectively speaking, the Timberwolves had a strong offseason. That much is fairly indisputable.

Now that we’ve reached the week that teams will begin to gather for informal workouts, shortly followed by media day (Friday for the Timberwolves) and the kick-off of training camp (the Wolves begin on Saturday in San Diego), it’s officially projection season in the NBA world.

ESPN rolls out a slew of win predictions each year. This time around, we’re treated to their Basketball Power Index (BPI). Here’s the definition, from ESPN:

"BPI is a forward-looking model that predicts the strength of each team on offense, defense and altogether. In making its game predictions, the model takes into account factors such as the strength of the two teams, the game’s location and rest differential between the two squads. BPI simulates the season 10,000 times to create its projections for both the season and the playoffs."

This model predicts that the Golden State Warriors have a staggering 57.9 percent chance to win the NBA Finals come June, and suggests that the Boston Celtics are the Eastern Conference team most likely to face-off with Steve Kerr‘s crew in the Finals.

As for the Timberwolves, ESPN’s BPI has them coming in with 47.6 wins — seventh-best in the entire NBA, and fifth in the Western Conference. (The Thunder are projected in fourth at 50.2 wins.) That’s right: that’s a 16.6-win improvement from the Wolves, edging the Philadelphia 76ers’ projected jump of 14 wins.

Such an improvement would be rare, of course, but certainly far from impossible given the addition of Jimmy Butler and shoring up of depth with Jeff Teague, Taj Gibson, and Jamal Crawford. And don’t forget that a majority of Minnesota’s games will be against the rough-and-tumble Western Conference, making this incredible improvement all that much more difficult.

In free agency news, Brandon Rush has reportedly inked a non-guaranteed pact with the Milwaukee Bucks. We heard fairly early in free agency that the Wolves did not have interest in bringing back Rush, but it always felt like there was a chance that they would find each other at the end of the summer-long dance. At least, that is, until this week.

The Timberwolves, of course, re-signed Shabazz Muhammad last week (podcast with thoughts onn the signing here) to serve as one of their top backup wing players. Kevin Pelton of ESPN put together a post that runs down the mostly minor moves made around the NBA over the past few weeks. Here is an excerpt from what he had to say about Muhammad returning to the Timberwolves:

"…Muhammad has to prove he’s worth more than the minimum, something the market didn’t believe this summer. He’s developed into a capable second-unit scorer and adequate 3-point shooter. Nonetheless, Muhammad’s dismal defensive rating meant he rated worse than replacement level by ESPN’s real plus-minus (RPM) last season."

Pelton is right. His thoughts very much align with mine and co-editor Brian Sampson’s regarding the signing; Muhammad is a good player but a somewhat odd fit for the roster and probably not a net-positive, all things considered. But then again, the veteran’s minimum is a good deal for the Wolves.

Next: Will the Timberwolves bench be improved in 2017-18?

Only two days until the start of training camp, ladies and gentlemen. We’ve almost made it.

Home/Timberwolves News