How does Saturday’s report that the Oklahoma City Thunder are trading for Carmelo Anthony impact the Timberwolves, the Northwest Division and in turn, the Western Conference playoff picture?
With the news that the Oklahoma City Thunder have acquired star forward Carmelo Anthony, the Northwest Division just got even tougher.
The Thunder only gave up Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott, and a second-round draft pick in order to land the former Knick. It didn’t take long for this trade to come together following the multiple reports on Friday evening that Anthony had added OKC to his list of teams for which he would waive his no-trade clause.
The story was first reported by Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
Woj later tweeted that the draft pick will be Chicago’s 2018 second-round pick, which will almost surely be a pick in the low 30’s come next June. He also reports that Anthony will join OKC by the start of training camp next Tuesday.
First, let’s look at the impact on the Thunder. A team that was already fairly top heavy gave up even more depth. The bench now looks like it will include the likes of Patrick Patterson, Alex Abrines, Kyle Singler, and Jerami Grant as the top options. Patterson is great backup big man, Abrines showed quite a bit in his rookie year, and Jerami Grant was solid a year ago as well. Singler leaves a lot to be desired, however, and this bench simply doesn’t go any deeper.
Of course, the starting lineup could be lethal. It will likely be Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Andre Roberson, Carmelo Anthony, and Steven Adams. Beyond the obvious concern of there being enough ball to go around, the positional alignment is interesting. Anthony hasn’t consistently played the power forward spot since the 2013-14 season, although that was his last season with true, star-like production. He’s a great fit next to Adams, although there will be some defensive concerns.
Roberson and George are mostly interchangeable at the ‘three’ and the ‘four’ based on matchups, although Roberson is extremely limited offensively.
The concept of high-usage players like Westbrook (41.7 percent usage rate in 2016-17), George (28.9), and Anthony (29.1) sharing the court isn’t exactly new; it’s not the first Big Three to be trotted out by a contender. But it is probably the trio that is the most alike of the league’s biggest trios.
The Cavaliers of the past few years had a point guard, a wing, and a big man. LeBron James‘ Miami Heat had a pair of wings and a big man. The “original” Big Three in Boston was a pair of wings and a big man. The closest thing would probably be Golden State, although Stephen Curry and Westbrook are very different players, and Curry’s ability to stretch the floor is superior to that of the Thunder point guard.
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At the end of the day, Anthony simply hasn’t been as impactful in recent seasons as any of the aforementioned trios’ third-best players, and he’s going into this age-33 season. That said, he’s still a star and one of the best in the game as a stretch-four that is also lethal in the post, and his prowess in the clutch is well-publicized as well. While risky in a couple of different ways, this is a trade that the Thunder had to make when it became available to them.
But remember: Westbrook, George, and Anthony can all opt out of their contracts next summer, meaning that the Thunder are pushing all their chips to the center of the table this year. While there remains a chance that some or all of their Big Three could return to OKC, it seems like an unlikely locale for a super team to choose to land for a long period of time.
So, how does this impact the Timberwolves? Well, it all but assures that the Northwest Division will be the most powerful in basketball, boasting three playoff teams from a year ago and two (the Wolves and the Denver Nuggets) who are among the most-improved in the league. It also makes the Wolves’ quest for a top-four playoff seed and home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs that much more difficult.
The top two teams in the Western Conference appeared to be Golden State and Houston, and after a small gap, San Antonio was thought to be #3. Then, the Wolves and Oklahoma City were going to battle it out for the fourth seed. Now? It’s hard to see how the Thunder wouldn’t be the third-best team in the West.
Other than potentially vaulting OKC into the top-tier of the West (and therefore, the entire NBA) and probably making a fifth-seed for the Wolves a bit more likely, it isn’t likely to impact Minnesota all that much. Of course, the Thunder are now a much thinner team and will rely on Anthony, who has only played in more than 75 regular season games three times in the last 10 years and is 33 years old. Any length of time missed by Westbrook, George, or Anthony will have a significant impact on the playoff race. (Of course, it would be easy to say that about most contenders, Minnesota included.)
The biggest thing to keep an eye on will be synergy (or lack thereof) with the Thunder offense. Also, how will their defense operate with a pair of players in Westbrook and Anthony that will operate as below-average defenders at their respective positions?
Next: 5 Takeaways From Timberwolves Media Day
We’ll have plenty more coverage of the seemingly constantly changing landscape of the Western Conference throughout the weekend here at Dunking With Wolves.