Best and Worst-Case Scenarios: Jamal Crawford

As we continue our series of best and worst-case scenarios for Timberwolves players heading into the 2017-18 season, let’s take a look at three-time Sixth Man of the Year and new Wolves guard Jamal Crawford.

Timberwolves head coach and president of basketball operations Tom Thibodeau had a clear goal of adding veterans with playoff experience to the roster, and Jamal Crawford is the epitome of that type of player.

Crawford is entering his 18th season in the NBA and the Wolves will be the seventh organization for which he has played. He’s been in the playoffs seven times, including the last five seasons with the Los Angeles Clippers.

The name Jamal Crawford is synonymous with the Sixth Man of the Year award; he is the only player to have won the hardware three times. But he’s also known for being a gunner, which has led to some largely inefficient seasons along the way. And don’t forget the fact that he’s coming off what was probably the worst season of his career and at age 37, it’s fair to wonder if the decline has begun in earnest. Remember, the Wolves signed him to a two-year deal worth $8.87 million with a player option for 2018-19.

Let’s take a look at the best and worst-case scenarios for the Timberwolves version of Jamal Crawford. What is the best, most realistic outcome that Thibodeau could have hoped for when he signed Crawford, and what would the Wolves’ nightmare scenario be for their new sixth-man?

Best-Case Scenario

When Thibodeau and the Wolves pursued Jamal Crawford this summer, they were no doubt envisioning the addition of the 2012-15 version of the former Clippers guard.

Crawford was fantastic in his first three years in L.A. and a legitimate recipient of the Sixth Man of the Year award back in 2013-14. He shot 35.6 percent from 3-point range while attempting 5.8 long-range shots per game. Crawford played a whopping 28.8 minutes per contest while only starting 28 of the 209 games in which he appeared, averaging 17 points per game over that three year span.

Strangely, he also carried the third and fourth-highest free throw rates of his career in 2012-13 and 2013-14 and his best since way back in 2008-09. The mid-range jumpers that have crept back to the forefront of Crawford’s game in recent years were minimized, and he attempted a bunch of threes and got the line at an acceptable rate.

But let’s be realistic for a moment: Crawford is no longer 32 years old. He just turned 37, and the past couple of years have seen the 6′-5″ scoring guard attempt a slew of inefficient jumpers, often early in the shot clock.

More from Dunking with Wolves

On the flip side, Crawford gives the Wolves something that they haven’t had in a long time: a dynamic scoring threat off the bench whom defenses will respect simply via reputation. And it’s not like he can’t shoot anymore; he converted 3-pointers at a 36 percent clip just last season.

The idea of Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford will stick in opposing defenses minds, and that will help open up opportunities for the other players on the floor. If he can maintain an above-league-average shooting stroke from beyond the arc and still manage to be somewhat of a threat when driving to the basket, Crawford can be an important piece of what should be a playoff team come spring.

The best-case scenario would be if Thibodeau limits Crawford’s minutes (incredibly, he hasn’t averaged below 26 minutes per game since his rookie year) to something closer to 20 per contest, and if he can find a way to get to the free throw line a bit more than he has of late. Remember, he’s an 86.1 percent career free throw shooter. The mid-range shots must be limited as well.

Crawford can still have a positive impact on the game, but Thibodeau needs to do his part to limit Crawford’s exposure.

Worst-Case Scenario

Crawford is 37 years old. Any worst-case scenario regarding players of that age has to start with the very real possibility that the final regression of his career has already started.

Indeed, 2016-17 was the worst year of Crawford’s career by almost any measure, and he simply wasn’t a positive contributor to the Clippers’ playoff squad.

Last year, Crawford posted his highest turnover rate since 2010-11 with Atlanta. He also had the worst rebounding rate of his career, which suggests that the athleticism and quickness that allowed him to chase down loose balls and long rebounds in the past is beginning to escape him.

He also followed a 2015-16 campaign in which only 36.6 percent of his overall shot attempts came from beyond the arc with a 2016-17 season that only saw 37 percent of his shots as three-balls. Conversely, Crawford shot the highest number of 2-point attempts from beyond 16 feet since his second year in the league.

Thibodeau’s squad shot a fair number of long twos a year ago, but it’s too early to say if that trend will continue into the new season. For Crawford to have a positive impact, he needs to limit those long 2-pointers early in the shot clock or in transition.

The worst-case scenario when it comes to Crawford on the Timberwolves is that he’ll cut into minutes from more efficient players. It could be the Wolves playing a small-ball lineup and choosing Crawford over Shabazz Muhammad, or it could be in the name of limiting minutes for Andrew Wiggins (although that seems unlikely, knowing Thibs) or Jeff Teague.

At any rate, the nightmare scenario would be Crawford playing something close to 30 minutes per game as a true sixth-man, regressing from beyond the arc, and overall shooting a slew of long twos while continuing to play his traditionally awful perimeter defense.

This addition could backfire on Thibodeau, but the idea of Crawford having a resurgent year in age-37 season, coupled with the benefits he should bring the locker room as a veteran leader was apparently too tempting. Indeed, if Crawford can be effective from deep and add a dangerous scoring element to what was an extremely vanilla bench a year ago, then the acquisition will have fulfilled the best-case expectations.

Next: 5 bold predictions for Timberwolves preseason

We can agree on one thing: the Timberwolves have never had a scoring threat of this caliber off of their bench, efficiency be damned.

Home/Timberwolves News