With both the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves making big additions this offseason, let’s dive into their starting 5 and see who comes out on top.
It seems like every direction you look, an NBA team has added an All-Star caliber player to their roster. The Houston Rockets have one of the best additions in Chris Paul. The former Los Angeles Clipper and New Orleans Hornet is an elite defensive guard and has no problems scoring on the other end of the court. Putting him in Coach of the Year Mike D’antoni’s fast paced, high scoring offense should help his skills flourish
This team is going to score points. Not only do they have the aforementioned Paul and the runner-up to the MVP last year in James Harden, Houston has players who work perfectly with their coach’s style.
Ryan Anderson is a very good player who doesn’t get talked about enough. The former California Golden Bear is one of the best shooting big men in the league. He was among the top 30 players in the league in terms of three-point percentage. Of those 30 players, only six shot seven or more 3’s per game. Anderson was among them. His scoring numbers (13.6 points per game) will help with the loss of one of their biggest bench threats: Lou Williams.
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Trevor Ariza is a solid all-around player. While he might not have shot a great percentage from deep (34.4 percent), he was a steady player on both sides of the court. Last season, it seemed as though the Rockets were more interested in outscoring people the playing any defense. Ariza had a +1.0 defensive plus-minus, so he actually had some interest in stopping opposing players on defense. His win shares (estimated number of win contributed by player) was 6.0. He was second on the team only to Harden’s 15.
While those four players might be the only four that average basketball fans know, there are plenty more noteworthy players. Guys like Sixth Man of the Year Eric Gordon, rim protector/alley-oop recipient Clint Capela, and needed defensive-stopper P.J. Tucker.
The Rockets got better in a lot of different areas. Remember, this is a team that was third in the Western Conference with 55 wins last season.
There are, however, some questions surrounding this team. What if Paul and Harden, two ball dominant players, don’t play well together? Does this team have enough defense to survive in the brutal West? With this team being so top-heavy, what would happen if Paul or Harden goes down?
This Houston team is looking to compete for a top four spot in the west, just like the Timberwolves. Let’s take some time to compare these two squads and see who ends the year on top (on paper).
Point Guard: Chris Paul vs. Jeff Teague
Chris Paul has done enough in his 12-year career to be a favorite against most of the point guards in the NBA. He has never averaged less than 15 points per game in a season. Paul has averaged 10+ assists nine times in his career and had nine four other years. The former Wake Forest Demon Deacon has led the league in assists per game four years and has the most assists per game of any active player.
The former Hornet and Clipper is even better on the other side of the court. The nine-time NBA All-defensive team member (seven-time first team and two-time second team) is well-known for steals. Over his almost certainly Hall Of Fame career, it has been incredibly tough when you see him staring you down as you walk down the court. Paul has led the NBA in steals per game six times, steal percentage four times and total steals five years. Oh, and by the way, he is the leader among active players in all those categories.
One more stat on CP3 that will show you how great he really is. According to Basketball-Reference.com, through the first eight years of his career, Paul either passed or tied the great Magic Johnson in terms of win shares at the same point in his career. Yes, THAT Magic Johnson. The one who is, among most NBA fans, a top three player all time. No matter what your feelings are on Paul, that is incredibly impressive.
Speaking of similarities, Paul and the new Timberwolves point guard Jeff Teague have looked similar on offense. Specifically, in the pick and roll.
When you put their numbers side by side from last season they stack up pretty closely. They were within .02 point per possession, while Paul has a .9 point per game lead. CP3 has the higher field goal percentage at 47.7 percent while Teague follows closely at 44.9 percent. Even though the Rocket floor general leads in those categories, the new Wolf takes the cake in terms of percentile with an 86th to 83rd advantage.
Part of those impressive numbers is due to the weapons they work with. Teague has worked with Al Horford, Myles Turner, and now Karl Anthony Towns. Paul has had two great players to work with the last six seasons in Los Angeles: Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan.
With all that being said, I have to give the nod to the longevity and consistent performance of Chris Paul
Advantage: Chris Paul
Shooting Guard: Jimmy Butler vs. James Harden
When you look at these two, you see the top two shooting guards in the NBA. Who you prefer is based on what style you like to watch. If you prefer a grittier, get to the basket style of offense and tough-nosed defense, Jimmy Butler is your man. If you would rather just outscore your opponent and forget about defense, you would probably go with Harden. Either way, you can’t really go wrong.
For the purpose of this debate, however, we need to take a look at the whole player.
Starting on the offensive side, let’s take a look at The Beard. Over the last two seasons, he has averaged 29 points a game. His rebounding increased as well to 8.1 per game, but the biggest jump was in the assist category. Two years ago, he set a career high with 7.5 assists per game. Harden blew that out of the water this year with an amazing 11.2 assists a game. He shot a modest 34.7 percent from 3-point range, but that was while shooting 9.3 deep balls per game. Add in his 53 percent 2-point shooting percentage and he had a 52.5 percent effective field goal percentage. For the Rocket, that was the second highest percentage of his career.
Jimmy Buckets is a different story offensively. His 3-point percentage might be higher (36.7), but he only shoots 3.3 per game. Butler shoots fewer free throws, but he doesn’t get as many calls as the runner-up to MVP. Harden might have the more exciting numbers, the former Bull was more efficient. Butler shot 45.5 percent on 16.5 shots per game as opposed to Harden’s 44 percent on 18.9 shots.
Defense is another matter. Butler is always asked to guard the other team’s best player. Harden, however, is often used as a turnstile. He was a regular on the clip show Shaqtin a fool which points out the worst plays of the previous night and week. Here are just a few examples.
When it comes down to it, it seems like a matter of preference. Since we are a Timberwolves website, I know which direction we will be leaning
Advantage: Jimmy Butler
Small Forward: Andrew Wiggins vs. Trevor Ariza
I feel like, every time we talk about Andrew Wiggins, we always have to put an asterisk by any statement we make. That asterisk being “This is before he is going to make his big jump and explode into an All-Star”.
Statements like “Currently, Wiggins is basically just a 20+ point per game scorer” or “Wigs is an awful off the ball defender”.
While the former number one overall pick might have a lot of growing still left in him, Trevor Ariza knows what he is.
He is a 12.4 point, 5.3 rebound, and 2.4 assist per game role player for a very good squad. A guy who shoots 35.4 percent from deep while shooting 6.6 threes a game. Something that Ariza does that Wiggins doesn’t is show consistency on the defensive end. Through his 15 year career, the Houston small forward has never posted a negative defensive plus/minus. Wigs, with all his athleticism and length, has yet to post a positive defensive plus/minus number through three years.
Wiggins, however, can cover up for his flaws on defense with his elite level offense. He has upped his points per game by at least three every season. He also improved on something the Wolves need desperately: 3-point shooting. He went from 31.0 percent during his rookie year to dropping to 30.0 percent his second season. In the former Kansas Jayhawk’s third year, however, his long ball percentage skyrocketed to 35.6 percent.
Both seem to be cemented to the third option status on their respective teams. If I want a third option, there are not a lot better than Andrew Wiggins.
Advantage: Andrew Wiggins
Power Forward: Taj Gibson vs. Ryan Anderson
Both Ryan Anderson and Taj Gibson are the embodiment of what their head coaches want out of their team. The Rocket Anderson is a big man who is known for his knockdown 3-point shooting more than anything else. On the other hand, the new Wolf Gibson is a in your face defender who would rather block a shot then hit a jump shot.
While Anderson might only be known as a stretch four, he is very good at what he does. Last season, he shot an impressive 40.3 percent from behind the arc while shooting seven 3-pointers a game. That was the second highest three-point percentage of his career, second only to the 2012-13 season. The former New Jersey Net also had an effective field goal percentage of 55 percent, topping teammates like Trevor Ariza (52.8) and James Harden (52.5).
Gibson, however, makes his money on defense. His stats, on the surface, might not be too exciting (10.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, and .8 blocks per game), but let’s dig a little deeper. He has never, in his eight-year career, had a negative defensive plus-minus. Even last season, when he was sent from Chicago to Oklahoma City mid-season, he still managed to stay positive. Anderson, on the other hand, has only had a positive plus-minus one year and it was only 0.2.
On the flip side (offensive plus-minus), the Rocket has the edge. He has only had a negative plus-minus one time in his career and it was a -0.1 in his rookie campaign. Gibson is a different story. He has yet to have a positive year in offensive plus minus.
This position might be close, depending on your preference for either offense or defense. Just close your eyes for a second and imagine if these two players switched teams. Which team would be better off?
It’s the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Advantage: Ryan Anderson
Center: Karl Anthony Towns vs. Clint Capela
This is an easy one.
Karl Anthony Towns is the top center in the NBA. He puts up elite numbers. He is the face of the franchise in Minnesota. He is a star coming up rapidly on superstar status and he hasn’t even reached his ceiling.
Clint Capela is a functional role player.
Enough said.
Advantage: Karl Anthony Towns
Bench
Both the Timberwolves and the Rockets should have good second units this season. We all know the talent Minnesota is bringing off the bench: Shabazz Muhammad, Jamal Crawford, Gorgui Dieng, etc.
The Rockets, however, counter with a couple of defensive stoppers in P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute. They also happen to have the reigning sixth man of the year in Eric Gordon as their first man off the bench.
Houston did a very good job of getting some guys on their bench who do things their starters don’t: play defense. Both Tucker and Mbah a Moute are excellent on and off-ball defenders. Pair that with a player who can get hot in a second from behind the arc in Eric Gordon and that bench looks tough to beat.
Minnesota brings a lot of scoring in when the starters need a rest. Muhammad, Crawford, and Tyus Jones are not known as good defenders. The aim of coach Thibs is to stop you with his starters and outscore you with his bench.
It seems like Houston’s bench compliments their team more than Minnesota’s does.
Advantage: Houston
Verdict
This is a potential second-round playoff series and, for most people, it would be a must watch. Jimmy Butler covering James Harden. The battling head coaching styles. Finally being able to see the TImberwolves in the playoffs. The series would be packed with story lines.
The Wolves have two players who are at the top of their position and a third who is looking to take a massive leap in Andrew Wiggins.
On the flip side, the Rockets have an MVP runner-up and an elite floor general coming to this team hungry.
Houston might have a better bench, but how much is Thibs going to use his bench anyway?
This would be a close battle, but I give Minnesota a slight advantage
Next: Minnesota Timberwolves: 5 goals for Justin Patton
Advantage: Minnesota Timberwolves