Professor Big Shot: Nemanja Bjelica is living up to the title!

Nemanja Bjelica earned one of the best nicknames due to his clutch shooting in Europe. He’s now starting to prove that hype in the NBA.

Nemanja Bjelica, one of the Minnesota Timberwolves top second team contributors, has the team off to a 7-3 start and on pace for 57 wins. Bjelica entered the league with the nickname Professor Big Shot which hasn’t often rolled off commentators tongues in his NBA career, but early season signs that he’s living up to the title.

Draft BackGround

Bjelica was the 35th pick of the 2010 NBA draft by the Washington Wizards and was traded for by Wolves President of Basketball Operations David Kahn. Kahn who in all his various blunders appeared to get this one right.

Although, this same draft he picked Wesley Johnson fourth and over All-Star players as DeMarcus Cousins (fifth), Gordon Hayward (ninth) and Paul George who’ve all been big shot players.

I’ll give Da Kahn little credit where little is due for picking Bjelica who came into the league consider as a point forward with exceptional playmaking skills and range from deep.

Kahn traded Trevor Booker who’s had a respectable professional career and Sengal forgotten Big Man Hamady N’diaye who never played an NBA game for Bjelica and Lazar Hayward who had a short and unimpressive career with Timberwolves.

The Professors’ Numbers

Bjelica came into the league with impressive credentials for a 6-foot-10 forward that was an All-Euroleague First Team player and 2015 MVP. He shot 54 percent from the floor and 37 percent from 3-point distance.

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While drafted in 2010, Bjelica didn’t join the Timberwolves until after his 2015 breakout Euroleague season. Flip Saunders was running the show and the entire coaching staff were excited to have a versatile big man join the team. He had the kind of stretch-four-forward resume with guard abilities NBA coveted.

Professor Big Shot was 27-years old, not your typical rookie, and arrived with plenty of expectations. His first two seasons didn’t live up to his doctoral title.

First Two Seasons

Bjelica performance was almost identical during his first two seasons. He played 60 and 65 games and injuries played a role in his inability to gell with the team. He played 18 minutes each season and averaged 5.1 and 6.2 points per game respectively.

His first season he shot 38.4 percnet from 3-point range which is respectable, but that number dropped to 31.6 percent in season two. He shot 72.7 percnet from the free throw line and again dip in year two 73.8 percent, which isn’t a bad number but not the kind that will secure tenure.

In his third season with his third coach, he’s demonstrating impressive numbers. As of the first ten games Bjelica stats:

15.5 minutes per game (down about 3 minutes)

8.2 points per game (up about 3 points)

63.6 field goal percentage (which is more than a 20 percent improvement)

62.5 from beyond the arch (50 percent improvement from last year)

91.7 percent from the free throw line (about 20 percent improvement)

Coming into the season, 3-point shooting was one of the teams concerns and Bjelica performance has been a shining light.

Bjelica salary is just under $4 million this year which makes him ninth, highest, paid player on the team. Belly and Taj Gibson combined salary are just under $18 million total for the top two at this position.

Peer Comparison

Timberwolves came into the season with high expectations for their starting five and many doubts about the second-team ability to make the grade. Bjelica numbers are impressive when compared to his fellow second-team peers near the top of the standings or even starters.

Rockets

Ryan Anderson ($19.5 million salary) is the starting power forward for the Houston Rockets followed by former Twolve on the second team Luc Mbah a Moute ($1.4 million).

Bjelica overall numbers are superior to Anderson when comparing field goal, from behind the arch and free throw percentages. ESPN provides a simple full game estimate stat for points and Bjelica would best Anderson by seven points-per-game if they both played 48 minutes.

Bjelica again tops Mbah a Moute in all three shooting categories and if they both played a full 48 minutes would top him by 10 points-per-game.

Rockets have about $21 million wrapped up in power forward salary or $3 million more than the Wolves.

Warriors

Bjelica when compared to defending NBA Champion Golden State Warriors Draymond Green ($16.4 million). Belly’s overall all offensive numbers are significantly better and would provide 5 more points per full game played. I doubt any NBA team would trade Draymond Green for Nemanja Bjelica but it’s an interesting comparison.

Warriors backup forward David West ($1.4 million) has also had an impressive start to the first ten games of the season. His field goal 66.7 percent, 3-point, 75 percent and free throw 66.7 percent thus better numbers than Bjelica in the first to statical comparisons. West would score about 27 points per game or six points better than our Professor if they both played 48 total minutes.

David West and Nemanja Bjelica both providing impressive numbers for their second team with Bjelica playing about four more minutes per game than West.

Warriors have about $18 million wrapped up in salary for their top players at this position which is surprisingly similar to the Twolves.

Grizzlies

Grizzlies are just behind the Timberwolves and Warriors in the standings with impressive wins over the Rockets and Warriors which demonstrates their ability to compete with the best.

Jarrel Martin ($1.4 Million) is the starting forward and Chandler Parsons ($23.1 Million) is a close second in minutes played – besting Bjelly by about two minutes per game. Coach Fizdale placed Jarrel Martin into the starting line as a result of JaMychal Green ($8.5 Million) ankle injury, thus not the fairest comparison, but still relevant for this unlikely starter.

Martin’s numbers are far bellow Bjelica and his shooting prowess doesn’t come statically close in all three categories. Parsons is the better overall shooter and yet still waning behind Bjelica statically this season in all three points measured.

Statistics would argue that Martin shouldn’t be in the starting line up when comparing him by 48 minutes while Parsons numbers are eerily similar to Belly.

If we assumed JaMychal Green was the starter and Parsons was the backup the Grizzlies power forwards are a $31 million impact on the cap which is $13 million more than the Timberwolves.

Twolves Power Forwards & Contracts

Entering the season, many pundits smarter than myself questioned the Twolves bench depth and also the salary commitment to Taj Gibson. at $14 million annually.

This article isn’t focused on the Tajinator, yet, it would be a mistake to not mention his own play has been tremendous. Gibson and Bjelica overall contract impact resembles other top teams if not a touch lower than some and dramatically lower than the Grizzlies.

Bjelica has a qualifying contract for about $4.9 million dollars which is a binding as a one-year contract for 2018-19. Bjelica could agree to sign a qualifying contract and he’d be under contract for next season. He could also sign an offer sheet with another team (which the Twolves could then match), and they could agree to a new, multi-year contract. Twolves also could rescind the qualifying offer going forward which seems doubtful at the moment or negotiate a new long-term deal.

Early in the season, it appears Bjelica is making a strong case to get an extension and paid.

Next: Timberwolves power rankings: KAT remains king of the jungle

Tenure Deserved

This season, Nemanja Bjelica has taken the next steps demonstrating he’s ready to apply for tenure with the Wolves. He’s improved his numbers and showed all signs of blending into Coach Thibedeau’s culture. If he continues to play at this level Bjelica will be part of a playoff team and will deserve an NBA tenure contract with the title – Professor Big Shot.

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