Ineptitude in the final quarter doesn’t lead to high win totals. How can the Minnesota Timberwolves fix this problem?
The Minnesota Timberwolves are now 10-7. There have been the predictable growing pains of a newly assembled roster as well as periods of cohesion that make even the most cynical fans beam with pleasure. However, one of the more alarming tendencies that has carried over from last year’s under-performing young squad to this season’s veteran-laden team is struggles in the final quarter of games.
The 2016-17 Wolves team finished 28th in the NBA in fourth quarter net rating with an unglamorous mark of -6.1, meaning the Wolves played at a level where they would be outscored by this differential over a 100 possession sample size. That only left the lowly Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic beneath them in terms of closing-time incompetence. These struggles, while grossly wearisome and uncontrollably vexing, were at least understandable with a new coach and the dependence on young players to carry the team on both ends of the court.
The more perturbing fact, however, is that these issues have persisted to the current season. After Monday’s defeat at the hands of the Charlotte Hornets, in which Frank Kaminsky kept up his incredible streak of never missing a shot against the Timberwolves (sarcasm…kind of), the Wolves fell to an atrocious -11.7 in net rating in the final frame. This mark is 4.6 points (!) worse than the Miami Heat, which is the closest team to the Timberwolves in terms of this statistic. Coming into the season, one of the more assumed progressions from the additions of veteran players who had experience closing out games was that the Timberwolves would drastically rise in this ever-important column in the NBA.com advanced team statistics page.
We are now past the point of being able to state the overused ‘small sample size’ term that almost all NBA writers have pounded into the ground at some point in their lives. Seventeen games into the season is enough time to know there is a problem, especially when it is so much worse than any other team in the entire NBA.
What might be some reasons for this?
The obvious.
If you’ve watched Tom Thibodeau-coached teams, you know that he prefers to play his starters when able. Okay, ‘prefer’ might not be a strong enough verb to accurately depict this robust tendency. Let’s go with ‘overpoweringly yearns’ to play his starting unit at all points of the game, regardless of score or opponent. Hell, Thibs probably even has his starters running offensive sets and screaming defensive communication in the locker room after the game (actually, probably not, but would anyone honestly be surprised if that were true?).
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With this habit comes great consequence.
In theory, a team’s starters are their best players. Usually, playing your best players a lot gives you the best chance to win. Henceforth, giving your starters outlandish amounts of playing time should enhance your probability of winning the game, right?
It’s not always that simple. Thibodeau has consistently mentioned over his tenure as Timberwolves boss that the fourth quarter is a different beast than the first 75 percent of the game. Defensive rotations for the opponent tighten, attention to detail on both sides of the ball become enhanced and execution becomes a much more difficult task.
Peak performance in these types of situations become much more difficult when adding fatigue to the equation. The Wolves currently sport three players in the top 25 in terms of minutes per game. Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins sit seventh and eighth, respectively, with Karl-Anthony Towns coming in at 25th. They also have the most-used lineup in the league, with their starters (Teague, Wiggins, Butler, Gibson, Towns) averaging 25.4 minutes per game on the court together. League-wide, no other lineup combination that has played in 10 or more of games has even averaged more than 17 minutes per game.
Resting players, something that has been touched on numerous times throughout the Timberwolves blogosphere and various media outlets over the last two seasons, is of vital importance in late game effectiveness. It is likely a main reason for all of the late shot clock heaves and poor defense that Wolves’ fans see on a nightly basis from their squad in the final frame, and undoubtedly a reason for their abysmal fourth quarter net rating.
How to fix it?
Solving the problem entirely is something that probably consists of several different variables.
First off, playing bench players more is a must. This is not something that should seem mind-blowing to even the most casual of fans. This point becomes fortified when you realize that some of the Timberwolves bench players have played quite well throughout the early part of the season.
Nemanja Bjelica currently has the second-best net rating on the team and is one of, if not the best, 3-point shooters in the NBA to this point in the season. Tyus Jones has proven to be a reliable, if unspectacular, backup point guard and floor general. Jamal Crawford has won multiple Sixth Man of the Year awards for a reason.
Another key component to flipping the script on this ill-fated trend is Tom Thibodeau becoming less stubborn. Inability to adapt is a main cause for extinction, and Thibs’ unwillingness to change his ways in order to make sure his players are fresh has plagued this team in crunch time for the duration of his time as head coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Doing the same thing over and over and hoping for a better result is senseless, and it is something that will be interesting to monitor as we move forward in this season.
Where are we headed?
The good news is that there’s nowhere to go but up when it comes to fourth quarter ineptitude. Also, despite their dreadful play in the final stanza of games, they have still found a way to place themselves among the top teams in the Western Conference with a 10-7 record (I still haven’t adjusted to this actually being a thing, and typing sentences like that confuse my brain and fingers in a strange way).
But, if the Wolves are to fulfill the prophecies that were set for them at the beginning of the season, they will need to right this problem, and quickly. This isn’t an issue that the Wolves want to accumulate and weigh on their minds, both consciously and subconsciously, when making a playoff run and attempting to take down elite teams.
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Even pushing into the middle class of this category would be acceptable. As long as they are able to play at a league-average rate in these situations, they should have the talent to win a substantial number of games. For the sake of the collective sanity of Wolves nation, let’s hope this issue is resolved sooner rather than later.