Timberwolves: Rumors of players demise have been greatly exaggerated

The rumors of the player’s demise on teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves have been greatly exaggerated, as the1973 Boston Celtics played at much faster pace.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in fourth-place in the Western Conference behind the San Antonio Spurs, Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets. If the playoffs started today, the Wolves would have home court advantage in the first round.

Tom Thibodeau has relied on a small group of players to achieve this winning record, 17-12, thus far. Fans have howled concerns about pace being a critical reason why players will burning out this season.

How the NBA defines pace and its impact

Pace: the number of possessions per 48 minutes for a team or player.

In a 2004 Bleacher Report article:

"In the 35 seasons, we analyzed, there were 544 teams that made the playoffs, 232 of which played at a pace above the league average. That means just 42.7 percent of all playoff teams over the past 35 seasons played “fast.”"

The article went on to explain;

"Of the 10 fastest true-pace seasons in our sample, six made the playoffs. And of the 10 slowest true-pace seasons, seven reached the dance. So falling on the far end of the pace spectrum, whether fast or slow, certainly doesn’t preclude a trip to the postseason. Perhaps that’s because outliers like those teams are typically doing something different than their peers, which leaves opponents playing catchup."

How the Timberwolves’ players stack up in minutes played per game on a team basis

Andrew Wiggins (second in minutes played per game on the team), Karl-Anthony Towns (third in minutes played per game), Taj Gibson (fifth), Jamal Crawford (seventh) and Tyus Jones (ninth) and they’ve played in every game this season.

Jimmy Butler (first in minutes per game on the team) has played in twenty-five of the games this season. Butler missed two games because of an upper respiratory infection which results in him being third in total minutes played this season.

Jeff Teague (fourth in minutes per game) and fifth in total minute played because he missed several games with Achilles injury.

Gorgei Dieng (seventh in minutes played per game) has played in twenty-four of the games and eighth in total minutes. Nemanja Bjelica has played in eighteen games (out with injury) and is ninth in minutes played per game and total minutes. Shabazz Muhamed has played in twenty-two games and is tenth in minutes total minutes played.

Wiggins, Butler, Towns, Gibson and Jeff Teague are the five players pundits and fans are most concerned about burning out. Thib’s appears to have a method to his minutes-madness and it’s hard to argue the order is too far off.

Reader Critique

I previously wrote an article about Tom Thibodeau playing his starters just enough, which focused on the minutes the great NBA players log to secure their NBA championship rings. The article was appreciated by some and critiqued by others.

My analysis isn’t perfect, I appreciate readers criticisms and research the valid arguments made.

Fans raised concerns about pace: the number of possessions per 48 minutes for a team or player.

The primary argument: the NBA plays at an increased number of possessions (faster) which impacts players and results in them requiring more rest.

I’ve taken a closer look at the league and the Twolves pace statistics to get a better understanding of the impact.

Timberwolves pace and players

The Timberwolves are playing at 95.8 which ranks third highest in team history behind 2013-14 Rick Adleman squad and the 2010-11 team coached by Kurt Rambis for the number of possessions over an entire game.

The Adleman led 2013-14 Wolves ended the season with 40 wins and 42 losses and missed the playoffs. Adleman had fourteen players that averaged over 10 minutes per-game with Kevin Love leading all players just over 36-minutes. Wolves had four starters playing between 30 to 32-minutes-per-game. Rick Adleman’s team had slightly more possessions than Thibs, used a deeper bench and did not reach the playoffs.

The Rambis lead 2010-11 Timberwolves finished with 17 wins and 65 losses thus increased possessions didn’t’ seem to benefit his squad. Love again played the most minutes. Rambis played a much deeper bench than Thibideau which included fourteen players averaging double-digit minutes, but wasn’t even close to being a good NBA team.

More from Dunking with Wolves

Flip Saunder coached the 2003-04 Timberwolves who reached the Western Conference finals and lost to the Los Angeles Lakers. That season they played at 89-minute-pace and the league’s average that year was 90.1, a statistically insignificant difference. Flip played Kevin Garnett, Latrell Sprewell, and Sam Cassell similar minutes to the Thib’s Big Three this season. Flip played fifteen players in double-digit minutes which is deeper bench than Thibs this season. Twolves had reached the playoffs in seven prior seasons making the Wolves an attractive free agent destination.

During the 2005-06 season, Dwayne Casey coached the Twolves to the fewest number of possessions over the length of a full game-88.8. Ricky Davis played just over 40 minutes-per-game and Wally Szczerbiak and Garnett played a hair under 39 minutes again all more minutes than this seasons Twolves Big Three. Casey had fifteen players logging double minutes which is five more players than Thibs squad reaching double digits. Twolves finished 33-49 – not coming close to reaching the playoffs and playing and the fewest number of possessions over a full game.

An evaluation of Timberwolves number of possessions per-game indicates that either extreme hasn’t resulted in success and playing a deeper bench doesn’t’ equal a playoff birth regardless of speed.

NBA Pace

This season the NBA is playing at 97.6 pace and the Twolves are at 95.8 possessions per game.

The NBA played the greatest number of possessions, a 107.8 pace, during the 1973-74 season and never dropped below a 100 pace consistently until after 1989-90 season. The number of possessions slowly tapered down to around 92 by the end of 1994-95 season.

The next nineteen seasons (1994-2013) the number of possessions average didn’t exceed 92 per game. The number of possessions has been as low 88.9 (1988-89) and as high as 92.7 pace (2009-10).

Since the 2010 season, the number of possessions was as low as 91.3 during the 2011-12 season and gradually increased up to the 97.6-pace of this season with 55 more games to be played before the season average will be finalized.

Starting in 1973 (107.8) through 1993 ( 96.8) the NBA number of possessions was more than this season. The league has been tracking pace for forty-five years and the NBA has averaged more possessions per-game in eighteen of those season than this season.

The number of possessions has recently begun to increase but doesn’t come close to the number of touches per-game in early 1970’s to late 1980’s.

Since then, many other factors have changed to improve players longevity.

Improved Health Facilities

The Timberwolves have Gregg Farnam Director of Medical Operations/Head Athletic Trainer and seven other health experts available to serve players needs.

The Timberwolves have partnered with Mayo Clinic which is located next to the Target Center and in the same building as their practice facility.

Mayo Clinic is ranked number one by US News and World Report for healthcare which means the Twolves have the best healthcare money can buy in America.

Reduced minutes and chasing championships

NBA Basketball players of the past invested more time chasing companionships than today’s players.

Modern NBA players have Tinder, Instagram, and variety of ways to connect with companionship while on the road as reported by The Cut’s, Jesse Singal. The NBA is also educating players about the adverse effects of drugs and alcohol on their careers resulting in wiser players.

Coaches and players are much more conscious of the importance of player rest. LeBron James prefers to sleep 12 hours a night versus spending time out late with his teammates.

King James understands being the King of rest is the path to being a contender.

Comparing the 1973-74 NBA Champion Boston Celtics to this seasons Twolves

I doubt, the 1973-74 NBA Champion Boston Celtics who played at 110 number of possessions per-game had as good of medical care and certainly not as many apps as today’s players.

Celtics were led by John Havlicek (33-years-old) who played over forty-minutes-per-game, Dave Cowens (25-years-old) or Jo Jo White (27-years-old) who also played above or just under 40-minutes respectively

At best, the Celtics received a cold bag of ice, some aspirin and a pat on the back followed by Red Auerbach saying “toughen up” to get through the grueling 82 game season.

Havlicek had such little concern for the speed of the game that his teammates would urge him to slow down, yet, he just ran faster towards a championship.

Since, 1973, it’s hard to believe many factors haven’t improved to reduce burnout and improve player longevity

Pace Single Factor

The NBA has increased the number of possessions which can be defined as a quicker pace but not one for the recorder books.

Timberwolves are ranked 22nd in Pace (estimate of minutes played per-48 minutes in the NBA). The number of possessions is a single component to consider when managing players rest and other factors such as sleep, medical care, and Tinder also have consequences.

The league-leading Boston Celtics are playing at 95.5 number of possessions per-game and deploying eight players logging between 17 and just under 33 minutes per game. Celtics top five are averaging between 30 to 33 minutes-per-game. Similarly, Timberwolves are leaning on eight players with the top five playing more minutes then Celtics top five and bottom Celtics playing more than Twolves bench.

Celtics are perennial contender which makes them an attractive destination for free agents like Al Horford and Gordon Hayward. Celtics acquired enough assets to persuade the Cavaliers to trade Kyrie Irving to their greatest threat to keep them from returning to the finals.

When the Twolves have consistently been in the playoffs and accumulated tradeable assets they’ll strengthen their bench. We can expect a slight drop of minutes for their top stars – at best a two to five-minute reduction which may result in an increase or decrease number of possessions over 48 minutes.

Next: Are the playoffs good enough for the Timberwolves?

Until then, rumors of the number of possessions and minutes played contributing to players demise have been greatly exaggerated.

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Rumors of players’ demise have been greatly exaggerated

By Ken Bradley | Dec 15, 2017