Minnesota Timberwolves’ forward Andrew Wiggins has had his shooting woes well-documented this season. However, it runs a lot deeper than that.
On Thursday night, Andrew Wiggins broke out of his shooting slump in a big way, connecting on 9 of his 17 shots for a 52.9 percent field goal percentage. This also included going 3-for-4 from downtown.
Before that game, however, he was 28-for-84 in his previous five games for a 33.3 percent field goal percentage. This included an abysmal 2-for-20 (10.0 percent) shooting performance from behind the arc. To pile on the horribleness, he only knocked down 63.2 percent of his free throws during that stretch.
This downtrend brought his overall shooting numbers from subpar to worrisome, as he’s shooting a near-career-low from the field and from the 3-point line:
| Season | Age | Tm | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | eFG% | FT% | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | 19 | MIN | 6.1 | 13.9 | .437 | 0.5 | 1.5 | .310 | 5.6 | 12.3 | .453 | .454 | .760 | 16.9 |
| 2015-16 | 20 | MIN | 7.3 | 16.0 | .459 | 0.7 | 2.3 | .300 | 6.6 | 13.6 | .486 | .481 | .761 | 20.7 |
| 2016-17 | 21 | MIN | 8.6 | 19.1 | .452 | 1.3 | 3.5 | .356 | 7.4 | 15.6 | .473 | .484 | .760 | 23.6 |
| 2017-18 | 22 | MIN | 6.9 | 15.8 | .439 | 1.3 | 4.3 | .312 | 5.6 | 11.5 | .486 | .481 | .637 | 18.4 |
| Career | 7.3 | 16.3 | .449 | 0.9 | 2.7 | .326 | 6.4 | 13.6 | .473 | .475 | .750 | 20.2 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/15/2017.
Although extremely early, this trend is eye-opening, as you’d think he’d be getting easier shot attempts this season with Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns soaking up more of the defense’s attention.
Unfortunately, Wiggins has continued to rely on shots that have a high-degree level of difficulty and isn’t connecting on the majority of them.
For his career, Wiggins has been a surprisingly average shooter from everywhere on the floor, as his shot chart here shows:
While that gives us a little piece of the picture, let’s dive in to discover exactly what percentage of shots he’s finishing from each area of the floor this season and how it compares to previous seasons. Buckle up, this will be fun.
Around the rim
Wiggins possesses elite athleticism and can yam on just about any big man in the league. However, finishing around the rim is more sophisticated than being able to jump the highest. Players need to have the strength to fight through the contact down low, body control to squeeze through the tightest of spaces and good touch to lay the ball in gently at times.
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Luckily, Wiggins can do a little of everything and is finishing 70.5 percent of his shots when within the restricted area. This is right up there with some of the elite players in the NBA as Kevin Durant (70.6 percent) and Giannis Antetoknoumpo (72.2 percent) are right there with him.
While the 70.6 percent is a huge increase over his previous career high of 64 percent in 2015-16, the bad news is Wiggins is attempting a career-low 4.2 attempts in the paint after taking 6.1 last season.
If we use a bigger scope to gauge his success and look at how he’s shooting within five feet of the basket, it’s still an impressive percentage, as he’s knocking down 67.9 percent of those shots.
One way Wiggins can increase his shot attempts around the hoop is to increase the number of cuts he makes. Given his skill set, he can become an elite cutter in this league. And his numbers show it.
When Wiggins finally decides to slash to the basket, he scores 1.60 points per possessions, which is in the 94th percentile in the league. The issue is he only cuts on 5.2 percent of the time, an extremely low number for a third scoring option.
So now we know Wiggins is a very good finisher around the rim, how does he fare in his mid-range game though?
Mid-range
For this exercise, I’m defining the mid-range as 10-19 feet.
Overall, he’s taking 4.3 mid-range shots per game and connects on 34.9 percent of them. Not great, Bob. Mid-range extraordinaire DeMar DeRozan takes 8.3 of those shots per game and connects on 45.8 percent of them. Even a non-shooter like Antetoknoumpo is connecting on 33.3 percent of his 4.2 attempts per game.
This percentage ties Wiggins’ career low from mid-range back in his rookie season when he also shot exactly 34.9 percent on 4.3 attempts per game. He’s never been a prolific shooter from this spot on the floor, with his career high coming in 2015-16 at 36.7 percent. So there’s no reason to expect him to make a high volume of these attempts
As the game has shifted, it’s probably best for Wiggins to get out of this mid-range mindset, which is why it’s positive he’s attempting a career-low number of shots from this area. However, that very likely has more to do with his overall shot total being down due to the presence of other good players around him.
Threes
After taking a step forward in his 3-point shooting last season, Wiggins has taken a huge dip so far this year, only knocking down 31.2 percent of his outside attempts. It’s important to note this number is greatly affected by his recent 2-for-20 performance and will vary greatly from game to game this early in the year.
The overwhelming majority of his attempts (3.6 of his 4.3 shots per game) come from above the break where he’s connecting on an abysmal 31.7 percent. This number needs to come up a lot if he’s going to be the effective spacing option Tom Thibodeau and the team are using him as.
In an extremely odd development, Wiggins actually shoots better off the bounce than on catch-and-shoot opportunities. This is very unusual and as the Hardwood Knocks guys pointed out, catch-and-shoot attempts are supposed to be extremely easier. When it comes to pull-up 3’s, he’s connecting on 35.5 percent of his shots. When it comes to catch-and-shoot, his number drops to 29.8 percent. Yuck.
With Wiggins taking more 3’s than ever before, it’s imperative he begins knocking down shots with more consistency. This will open up the offense and force his defender to respect his shot more often. This will also open up driving lanes for his teammates and the cutting lanes for himself. A win-win for everyone involved.
Free throws
Free throws have been a nasty beast for Wiggins, who’s hitting a career-low 63.7 percent of his shots from the charity stripe this season. That’s teetering in Andre Drummond territory.
Nobody is sure what’s going on with his free throw shooting, but it fits the bill with his numbers being down from just about everywhere else on the floor this season. It sounds as if he’s working hard on his form and trying to get the shot down, but hasn’t been able to yet this season.
Most seasons Wiggins seems to start out slow from the free throw line, but eventually works his way back to the 76 percent clip where he’s made 76.0, 76.1, and 76.0 percent of his attempts throughout the first three seasons of his career.
Typically, when scouts are looking at a prospect and trying to determine if they can become a good shooter down the line, they’ll use their free throw percentage and form as on factor. If they have a smooth stroke from the charity stripe and are knocking down a high percentage, it’s a factor that they might be able to figure out their shot from the rest of the floor.
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With Wiggins being an average shooter from the free throw line throughout the first three years of his career, that might just be the type of shooter he’s destined to be. If that’s true, expect his numbers to continue to rise throughout the season, and hope he learns how to develop his other skills like cutting to meet the expectations of his max contract.