After another late-game collapse — and one that this time led to a loss — just how worried should Timberwolves fans be about the up-and-down nature of Tom Thibodeau’s squad?
On Wednesday night at Target Center, the Timberwolves blew a 19-point lead to an up-and-coming playoff team in the Denver Nuggets. After falling behind midway through the fourth quarter, the Wolves overcame an injury to Jeff Teague and foul-outs from Taj Gibson and Karl-Anthony Towns to win in overtime.
On Thursday night at BMO Harris Bradley Center, the Timberwolves blew a 20-point lead to an up-and-coming playoff team in the Milwaukee Bucks. The Wolves led by a score of 74-54 with 7:13 remaining in the third quarter. At the 7:05 mark in the fourth quarter, the Bucks capped a 34-14 run over just over 12 minutes with a Khris Middleton 3-pointer that tied the score at 88.
The Wolves retook a slim lead and maintained it until Eric Bledsoe put the Bucks up for good with 2:25 left in the game. Ultimately, it was a 12-3 run that saw the Wolves play sluggish offense and no-urgency defense, showcasing just how tired they were on the second night of a back-to-back after playing overtime the night before and catching a flight to Milwaukee.
So, how concerned should fans be? Well, it’s obviously not a positive thing to lose consecutive 19-plus-point leads. We can start there. But beyond that, is there anything significant to be worried about?
On Wednesday, it was mostly a function of a good team hitting shots, combined with stagnant offense; the Wolves defense didn’t really wane against Denver. The shots started falling for Will Barton and Co., and Minnesota Jimmy Butler found enough of a second gear to get the game to overtime and emerge victorious.
On Thursday, it was clearly fatigue that set in on both ends of the floor. It’s to be expected, given the circumstances, and it’s still a game that could have gone either way up until the final possessions. Additionally, Tom Thibodeau, who isn’t typically a man of many excuses, offered up that Andrew Wiggins sprained his ankle during the Bucks’ run and Tyus Jones dislocated his finger.
The loss to the Bucks is far from alarming. To most folks, this was a likely “schedule loss” as it was: on the road, on the second night of a back-to-back, playing against a good Bucks team. While a blown 20-point lead is not good, it wasn’t all too surprising.
The more concerning element is that this has happened somewhat frequently for the Timberwolves, albeit not always as large of a lead or quite as dramatically down the stretch of each game. However, the cumulative effect of these blown leads, even if they don’t always lead to losses and even if the Wolves continue to be great at closing out close games, is even less rest for an already taxed starting lineup. Great teams don’t allow too many of these collapses to occur, and star players often get extra rest in the fourth quarter of blowouts that remain blowouts.
For the Wolves, at least to this point, these double-digit blown leads have led to what should have been unnecessary minutes for Jimmy Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, and Taj Gibson. That’s the sort of thing that very well could come back to bite Minnesota come spring, and with a head coach that relies on his starting five as much as Thibodeau does, it’s a recipe for late-season disaster. The issue of fatigue is only exacerbated by these frequent blown leads.
Of course, on the same night as the Timberwolves’ loss in Milwaukee, the now-25-8 Houston Rockets blew a 26-point lead to the 29-10 Boston Celtics. It happens all the time in the NBA, and while it’s frustrating — I’m sure the Wolves would have loved to have a six-game winning streak as much as their fans — it isn’t necessarily a shock or an infrequent occurrence.
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But for fans looking forward to a high seed and a deep playoff run, these heartbreaking blown leads, whether they lead to wins or losses in the moment, are like a slow drip eroding away the already fragile nature of player stamina, and ultimately, health and effectiveness.