Checking in on the Timberwolves’ deployment of ICE defense

The Timberwolves’ defensive improvement since December has been well-documented, but recent slippage on that end of the floor has knocked them back to the bottom-five in the NBA in defensive rating.

After the opening six weeks of the NBA campaign saw the Timberwolves languishing as a bottom-three defense, there was a sudden and complete change: Tom Thibodeau’s squad started playing defense, and the Wolves were no longer simply outscoring their opponents.

After only holding seven opponents under 100 points the first six weeks of the season, the Wolves achieved that sub-100 goal four times in nine games beginning around Thanksgiving. Then, from Dec. 31 to Jan. 12, Minnesota held seven straight opponents under the century mark.

But a 4-4 stretch followed that saw only one opponent score less than 108 points. The streak of defensive futility officially ended with Saturday night’s 111-97 win over the Brooklyn Nets, but there were plenty of defensive lapses that the Wolves simply got away with because of the caliber of opponent they were facing.

Let’s take a quick dive into some of the more concerning defensive breakdowns that occurred in the Nets game, one in which the Wolves led by as many as 26 points before Brooklyn cut the deficit to just five in the second half.

One of the things that the Timberwolves ICE defense has been most vulnerable to over the one-and-a-half seasons that they’ve been running Thibodeau’s defense are 3-point attempts from the corner and from the slot. Savvy opposing ball-handlers can either attempt a skip pass or, depending on how deep the penetration is off of the initial ball screen, can kick the ball back out to an open man on the perimeter as the rest of the defense instinctively sags to help in the paint.

Now, this wasn’t the case with Thibodeau’s Bulls teams. In his five years as head coach in Chicago, the Bulls were in the top-three in fewest made 3-pointers allowed every single season. They were top-five in 3-point percentage allowed in four of the five years, with their worst showing landing them at No. 8.

By contrast, last year’s Timberwolves were No. 18 in the league in 3-pointers allowed, and ranked 23rd in 3-point percentage allowed. This season? They’re 29th in made threes by opponents and 21st in opponent’s 3-point percentage.

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(What’s changed from the Bulls to the Timberwolves when it comes to 3-point shooting? We’ll get to that in part below, but certainly, the prevalence of stretch-fours and stretch-fives that aren’t settling for inefficient long twos but are more than comfortable launching 3-pointers and converting from outside the arc at a high enough rate to make this defensive concept tenable at times in today’s NBA.)

One of the key components of Thibs’ defensive scheme in both Boston (where he was the lead defensive coach under head coach Doc Rivers) and Chicago was vocal, mobile big men. Even on the back-end of his career, Kevin Garnett was downright dominant in Boston, and Joakim Noah was awesome in Chicago before injuries slowed him down significantly.

In Minnesota, Thibodeau has been waiting for Karl-Anthony Towns to be that guy. Former Bull Taj Gibson is the more vocal — and certainly the better-versed in ICE defense — of the two big men, but it takes both big men to be on the same page to make this defense work every single time down the floor. (A good rundown of how teams play basic ICE defense can be found here, from Coach Nick at the fantastic BBALL BREAKDOWN.)

Below are two examples from Saturday’s win over the Nets in which Brooklyn utilizes a skip pass to get a semi-open 3-point attempt.

In the first video, Jeff Teague and Towns ICE the initial screen perfectly, but the Nets’ Nick Stauskas opts to loft a dangerous skip pass to the opposite wing rather than allow himself to be swallowed up by the Wolves’ defense.

Gibson is preoccupied with checking Towns’ man, Jarrett Allen, who rather than rolling hard to the rim was lingering at the top of the key. In a perfect ICE world, Towns would be able to recover in time to cut off a dive to the rim from Allen, and he probably could have done just that. In this case Gibson’s own lingering left his man, DeMarre Carroll, mostly open for a 3-point attempt that rattled out.

In the second example, Tyus Jones doesn’t quite get on top of the screen fast enough and is stuck in a trail position behind the dangerous Spencer Dinwiddie. Gorgui Dieng is in solid position, however, and Dinwiddie opts to throw a pass to the opposite corner. Marcus Georges-Hunt had sunk just a hair too far towards the paint, but the pass floated a bit and MGH was quick enough to manage a decent contest, although Allen Crabbe did sink the three.

ICE defense can be defeated with timely passing if the defense isn’t on a string and talking to one another the entire time. Neither of the above possessions were exactly catastrophic breakdowns from the Wolves, but they’re the type of close-but-not-quite rotations that spell disaster against the Houstons and Golden States of the world.

In the below video, Taj Gibson sags too low in trying to help with Towns’ man, leading to a wide-open 3-point attempt as the Wolves were trying to desperately hang on to a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter.

The clip starts a little late, but Jones and Towns do a great job forcing Dinwiddie into a tough spot under the rim. Gibson initially does the right thing by stunting towards KAT’s man (Jahlil Okafor), who was the screener at the outset of the play.

But Gibson lingers too long. If you pause the video just prior to Dinwiddie’s pass, you’ll see that Towns is in perfect position to defend a shot attempt from the ball-handler as well as a pass into the paint to Okafor. ICE defense is designed to guard screen-and-roll action with just two players, and Towns and Jones did that to perfection.

Related Story: Karl-Anthony Towns is improving on offense, too

While Gibson was essentially double-teaming Okafor, who didn’t have the ball, DeMarre Carroll, a 35.8 percent career 3-point shooter, was standing outside the arc with nobody within 15 feet. The 3-point attempt rimmed out, but Minnesota won’t always be so lucky.

It just so happens that it was Gibson who was slightly out of position on the last two plays. In reality, Gibson is the Wolves most consistent defender this side of Jimmy Butler, and without him, the defense would look like … well, you’d get last year’s 27th-ranked debacle.

Let’s take a look at just how good the Butler-Gibson tandem can be with this final video.

Here, the Timberwolves defense is perfect all the way around, and the result is a steal and a live-ball turnover.

Andrew Wiggins is prepared to ICE the pick, but the ball-handler (Dinwiddie) refuses the screen in a difficult spot and gets himself trapped by Wiggins and Towns in the corner. The screener (Allen) begins to roll, but Gibson leaves his man, the offensively-challenged Quincy Acy, and bothers Allen enough that he completely whiffs on the pass.

In the meantime, Gibson and Butler have communicated that Acy is being dropped off at the free throw line, and Butler is there to scoop up the loose ball in front of the Nets big man.

It’s worth noting that while this play worked out perfectly, Butler switching off onto Acy left his man, Allen Crabbe, a 39.5 percent career 3-point shooter, wide open outside the arc. If Dinwiddie hadn’t tried to force the pass to the roller, he would have had an open man in Crabbe for a 3-point attempt. And while Butler surely would have recovered, it wouldn’t have been fast enough to completely contest the shot.

Therein lies the beauty and the curse of the ICE defense. Or, at least in how the Timberwolves are currently playing it.

And while the Thibodeau Bulls simply didn’t give up 3-pointers, it’s important to point out that teams are far more willing to shoot deep, above-the-break threes in 2018 than they were back in 2011; according to Basketball-Reference, the percentage of total 3-point attempts that are launched from the corner has decreased from 27 percent in 2010-11 to just 20.7 percent so far this season.

There’s no denying the improvement in the Wolves defense since the early stages of the season. And while the past couple of weeks haven’t been pretty, the backslide is certainly due in part to Butler’s four game absence, and they’ve largely been playing against a murderer’s row of offenses. There’s still been real improvement from both Towns and Wiggins, and the increased playing time for Tyus Jones has helped, too.

Next: Western Conference landscape is challenging for the Wolves

With just 30 games to play in the regular season, it will be fascinating to see how much of the improvement sticks down the stretch, and what will the Wolves’ defense be able to get done against potent opposing offenses during long playoff series come April and, hopefully, May.