Karl-Anthony Towns’ defense is better than you think

Karl-Anthony Towns‘defense is better than one might think when turnovers are included in the change of possession equation. 

NBA championships have been built on the backs of defensive giants, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are counting on Karl-Anthony Towns to be an anchor in the middle for years to come. NBA great defenders are judged on defensive rebounds, steals and blocked shots because they result in a change in possession. Turnovers are another important change of possession statistic that should be calculated when reviewing a players performance but is often overlooked.

I compared Towns’ (he of seven feet and 244 pounds) statistics this season to several of NBA greatest defenders from and past present in their respective third years. As Towns heads to his first All-Star game and the Wolves have a 34-22 record and appear headed to their first playoff appearance in 13 years, it’s a good time to compare him to several of the greats.

I’ve compared Towns to Detroit Piston Ben Wallace (6-foot-9, 240 pounds), a five-time All-Defensive Team member and four-time All-Star and one of the most dominant defensive big men in modern history. I also compared Towns with Hakeem Olajuwon (seven-feet, 255 pounds) two-time Defensive Player of the Year, 12-time All-Star, and winner of countless other accolades. Dikembe Mutombo (7-foot-2, 245 pounds) was a four-time Defensive Player of the Year and attended eight All-Star games.

KAT’s physical stature is more like Olajuwon from a height perspective than the other two players and, the weight differential seems fairly insignificant. Towns is just 22 years old — two years younger than Wallace (24) and Olajuwon (24) and five years younger than Mutombo (27) when they played their third season in the league.

Town’s minutes (35.8) aren’t far off from Olajuwon (36.8) and Mutombo (34.8) and notably more than Wallace’s (26.8) minutes logged in his third season.

Compared to all three players, Towns’ mark of 40.8 percent makes him the best 3-point shooter; it’s an intricate element of his offensive game and not necessarily a factor for the other big men’s game. KAT’s ability to shoot from deep results in offensive spacing for teammates that provides him the ability to deliver assists to them. KAT’s 2-point shooting percentage of .584 is also higher than all three players.

Comparing points per game, Towns’ 20.1 PPG is closer to the career totals of Olajuwon (23.4 points) and Mutombo (12 points) while Wallace (6 points) lags behind in that respect. His total rebounds (12.1) are little better than Olajuwon (11.4), Mutombo (11.8) and than Wallace (8.3). However, if Wallace was playing similar minutes as KAT, his rebounds would be much higher. Towns’ defensive rebounds (9.4) are superior to Olajuwon (7.2) and Mutombo (8.4). Wallace again would have superior numbers if he had played similar minutes during his third season.

KAT’s assists per game (2.3) are higher than Wallace (0.4) and Mutombo and lower than Olajuwon (2.9).

Wallace (1.1 steals), Olajuwon (1.9 steals) demonstrated livelier defensive hands resulting in more steals than KAT (.9 steals) based on total minutes played. KAT’s steals per game are not that significantly different than Mutombo (.7 steals).

KAT’s speed and accuracy are significant factors in his offensive game which is surely transferable to the defensive side of the court and should eventually result in more steals for the big man.

Mutombo was the behemoth who struck fear into opponents as he blocked 4.1 shots per game, Olajuwon swatted away 3.4 per contest, and Big Ben Wallace tallied two blocks per game, and KAT 1.6 blocks per game. Shot-blocking is an important defensive statistic that impacts possessions, although not all blocks result in a change in possession.

Below, I added together defensive rebounds, steals and block shots for Towns, Olajuwon and Mutombo, excluding Wallace because his minute total was less than the other three.

7.2

8.4

0.9

1.9

0.7

1.6

3.4

4.1

11.9

12.5

13.2

Towns’ turnover ratio per-game (2.0) is better than Olajuwon (3) and Mutombo (2.5) while Wallace (0.8) did a better job than everyone else in taking care of the ball. Towns’ superior turnover numbers are important to consider because it’s another key change of possession statistic.

Including turnovers into the change of possession total demonstrates Towns numbers are better than Olajuwon and almost an entire possession worse than Mutombo.

7.2

8.4

0.9

1.9

0.7

1.6

3.4

4.1

11.9

12.5

13.2

2

3

2.5

9.9

9.5

10.7

Towns has work to do on the defensive side of the court, but he’s not far off from posting defensive numbers similar to other defensive stars and his overall change of possession is currently a little better than Olajuwon in his third season who is one of the NBA’s greatest defensive big men.

This season, Town’s is ranked eighth in the league in blocked shots and fourth in defensive rebounds, and he’s ranked and 114th in steals. It’s those combined statistics that predominantly define a players strength on the defensive side of the court.

As previously stated, turnovers are an important factor and Towns is ranked 61st in the league in losing the ball. The top-five NBA players in turnovers per game are DeMarcus Cousins, Russell Westbrook, LeBron James, James Harden, and Joel Embiid. Towns is taking care of the ball better than many of the best players in the league, which shouldn’t be overlooked.

Towns has the ability to be one of the best defensive players in this league, and his numbers are not too far off from other elite defenders. He takes good care of the ball, he’s a monster at vacuuming up defensive rebounds and it’s not unrealistic to speculate with age he’ll increase his steals and shot blocks.

Next: Timberwolves should explore signing Tony Allen

It’s not a question of if Karl-Anthony Towns will be a great defender, it’s a question of when. If he keeps improving and taking care of the ball, it should occur sooner rather than later.