As the trade deadline looms approximately 48 hours away, let’s take a look at the odds that the Timberwolves pull the trigger on a trade.
The trade deadline is about three weeks earlier this year, and we’ve already seen a steady trickle of significant trades around the league.
Names such as Blake Griffin, Tobias Harris, Nikola Mirotic, and Tyler Zeller have changed teams over the past eight days, and it remains to be seen whether or not that portends a flurry of activity at the deadline on Thursday or if the air has been slowly let out of the trade balloon.
The Timberwolves have only made two trades in nearly 22 months with Tom Thibodeau at the helm of the front office, and they came within eight days of one another. The first, of course, was the June blockbuster that brought Jimmy Butler to Minnesota on draft night. Prior to that day and outside of the trade that sent Ricky Rubio to Utah just over a week after acquiring Butler, Thibodeau has only made roster moves through free agency.
The main reason for a lack of trades from Minnesota is, quite simply, that they don’t have enough valuable players on tradeable contracts. That’s it.
They aren’t trading Karl-Anthony Towns or Jimmy Butler. Andrew Wiggins just signed a max deal, and because of that, has a Poison Pill Provision attached to him. Taj Gibson isn’t going anywhere, because of his value to the team, and, well, Thibs.
Jeff Teague is technically tradeable but just signed a big deal to be in Minnesota and hasn’t played well enough this season to justify his price tag. There’s no incentive to trade Jamal Crawford, who is the only real scoring punch off the bench. Nemanja Bjelica is a bargain on his current contract and would only be included in a much larger deal that clearly improves the team as a whole.
There’s no reason to trade Tyus Jones; the Wolves aren’t going to find a better backup point guard on the trade market. Marcus Georges-Hunt is a value player that Thibodeau clearly likes and the guys on two-way contracts aren’t getting moved, either. And first-round pick Justin Patton has enough potential that he’d surely only be included as as sweetener in a blockbuster.
Outside of third point guard Aaron Brooks, that leaves Gorgui Dieng, Shabazz Muhammad, and Cole Aldrich.
Muhammad has already asked out, and while there is theoretically a team that would give him a two-month tryout on a minimum deal, that team will more likely than not wait for him to be released by the Wolves and pick him up without giving up any assets. Minnesota is no doubt searching for any potential matches in a swap of minimum contracts, but it would be a mild surprise if they found a willing trade partner.
Aldrich has an albatross of a contract, but in order to shed it the Wolves would have to be willing to take significant long-term money back, and that seems unlikely.
Dieng probably has what would be closest to value as a player combined with a movable contract, but it’s still a huge deal to take on and we all know how valuable Thibodeau believes his backup big man to be to the rotation.
ESPN’s Zach Lowe notes as much in his latest trade deadline primer, and he also touches on the Wolves willingness (or, more accurately, unwillingness) to move the first-round draft pick that they own in this June’s draft.
"The Wolves have been cautious even discussing the 2018 first-round pick they own via the Thunder, sources have said. (Minnesota owes its own pick to the Hawks.) The Wolves know they will need cheap rookie-scale guys as Andrew Wiggins and then Karl-Anthony Towns age into max deals. Gorgui Dieng could likely be had, but who is excited about paying him this season and then more than $48 million over the next three years?"
So, what are the odds? If you ask Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune, the Timberwolves will make a move.
But let’s just say that it seems like it would be somewhat of a surprise if the Wolves are able to pull the trigger on something prior to Thursday afternoon. I’ll (arbitrarily) call it 1-in-5. They’re apparently trying, but don’t get your hopes up, Wolves fans.
Next: Should the Timberwolves buy at the trade deadline?
But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Multi-team trades are hard to pull off and somewhat more rare in-season, but anything could go down in the next two days. In the meantime, we’ll have further speculation for you to peruse here at Dunking With Wolves…