On Andrew Wiggins’ disappointing offensive regression

There’s no question that Timberwolves wing Andrew Wiggins has regressed on offense this season. But what has caused his backslide, and how could it be reversed?

Andrew Wiggins is an immensely talented individual — according to Jimmy Butler, he’s “easily the most talented” player on the team.

To this point in his still-young career, however, Wiggins has not been anything more than an immensely talented individual with equal number jaw-dropping, brilliant moments and forehead-smacking, bewildering failures.

It’s averaged out to somewhat of an underwhelming first three-plus years in the NBA, and while it’s clear that unfair expectations were heaped upon the then-19-year-old when he was selected first-overall out of the University of Kansas back in 2014, the struggles have no doubt been frustrating for Wolves fans.

That said, there’s no doubt that Wiggins has shown considerable improvement in some areas of his game. From his rookie season to Year Three, Wiggins vastly improved his 3-point shooting (although he’s regressed so far in Year Four — more on that later), increased his assist rate while decreasing his turnovers, and showed an overall improved awareness on both ends of the floor.

Most of the improvement has been incremental, of course, and there has yet to be anything resembling an “aha” moment. But it’s hard to get too upset about incremental improvement from one’s age-19 to age-21 seasons.

Through the first 62 games of the 2017-18 season, however, Wiggins has regressed on offense. (Side note: his much-maligned and significantly overrated defense has improved, largely due to the advantages of playing alongside Butler and Taj Gibson, and while the lapses are still there, he’s improved. However, we’re focusing on offense in this piece.)

Let’s start with the one positive sign in Wiggins’ offensive game: he’s shooting far more 3-pointers and far less mid-range jumpers than ever before. That’s a massive win. So, what’s the problem?

It’s two-fold. One, he’s only making 31.9 percent of his threes, down from a respectable 35.6 mark a year ago. The bigger issue, however, is the other area of the floor that has been cannibalized by Wiggins’ trigger-happy 3-point shooting: Wiggins’ field goal attempts from within three feet of the rim have plummeted.

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Over his first two seasons in the NBA, Wiggins attempted an impressive 31.4 percent of his field goal attempts at the rim. (To give that number some perspective, note that James Harden hasn’t bested that mark since 2011-12, his last year with the Thunder, and Jimmy Butler hasn’t done it since the 2014-15 campaign. It’s a solid number.)

Since then? That number dropped to 29.1 percent last year and plummeted all the way to just 22.3 so far during the current season.

Obviously, shooting the ball less at the rim is going to impact one’s overall shooting percentage. But the other impact that can’t be denied is the massive dent that it makes in a player’s free throw rate, thus impacting his overall efficiency.

Wiggins went from a free throw rate of .424 (defined as the number of free throw attempts per field goal attempt) over his first two seasons to .345 last season and a measly .245 in 2017-18. To make matters worse, the career 76 percent free throw shooter is only hitting on 63.2 percent of his freebies this season.

Let’s review. Wiggins is shooting less mid-range jumpers (good), and more 3-pointers (good). But the uptick in volume from beyond the arc has led to less attempts in the paint (bad), and limited effectiveness from 3-point range (bad). In turn, less attempts in the paint has meant a huge downturn in free throws (bad), and when Wiggins has made it to the charity stripe, his free throw shooting percentage has been, by far, a career-worst (bad).

There were a handful of poor single-game performances from Wiggins to choose from just prior to the All-Star break, but the win over the Lakers on Feb. 15 provided us with the best of both worlds — equal parts Good Wiggins and Bad Wiggins.

First, an example of exactly the kind of mid-range jumper that Wiggins has cut down on. Strangely, it doubles as a play that could easily have turned into a make-able attempt at the rim. Instead, Wiggins settles.

Here’s an example of a similar play, but Wiggins instead drives into the paint and drains a tough shot.

In each play, Wiggins receives a ball-screen from Taj Gibson and ends up being covered by Brook Lopez. In the Good Wiggins example, he Euro-steps around the defender and finishes at the rim. As Bad Wiggins, he drifts towards the baseline and allows the defense to give him a poor angle. One hard dribble towards the middle or a jump-stop lands him right in front of the rim, where he could finish and/or get to the free throw line.

Another interesting change in Wiggins’ game thus far in 2017-18 is the lack of post-ups. The main reason for this is the addition of Butler, of course, and there simply aren’t as many plays called for Wiggins.

And for as much as Wolves fans tired of Flip Saunders running post-up after post-up for Wiggins back in 2014-15 and 2015-16 — post-ups in general are inefficient play sets and Wiggins simply could not stop shooting contested fadeaway jumpers from mid-range — it’s turned into Wiggins’ most efficient play set in Year Four.

(It probably says as much about Wiggins’ continued struggles in spot-up and pick-and-roll situations, but let’s give credit where credit is due.)

Take, for example, these two first quarter post-ups from the Lakers game.

In both clips, Wiggins gets deep enough that a turnaround jumper is far from a bad move. By and large, when Andrew has been able to set-up shot deep in the paint, he’s been able to elevate his defender and knock down short jumpers and quasi-jump-hooks.

Here’s an example of Wiggins settling. It should look familiar to fans of the 2015 Timberwolves.

There’s no help coming from the Lakers as Wiggins catches well outside the paint. Karl-Anthony Towns‘ man stunts near the free throw line, but it doesn’t deter Wiggins, who still turns right shoulder and hoists a perfectly contested jumper.

A fake towards the middle and a counter-move to the left shoulder would reveal a clear lane for a layup, and if Lopez steps up to contest there’s an easy dump-off pass to Gibson for a dunk. Instead, the result is a miss.

At the end of the day, Wiggins is one of the more effective post-up wings in the game. Only Rudy Gay, Devin Booker, Wesley Matthews, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson can claim to score more points per possession (PPP) as wings in the post among players that use one or more possessions per game on post-up attempts.

Also according to NBA.com/stats, Wiggins scores 0.99 PPP on post-ups while only using 9.1 percent of his possessions in the post. By contrast, he spends 24.4 percent of his possessions as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll but only scores 0.8 PPP on those play types. Additionally, he uses 21.9 percent of possessions as a spot-up shooter, where he only manages 0.88 PPP.

So, what does all this mean? In short, Wiggins has been the player forced to make the most adjustments in the Wolves’ new, Jimmy Butler-centric offense. Sure, Wiggins still has a higher usage rate than Towns and is still attempting more than two more shots per game than KAT, but the types of shots that Wiggins is taking has strayed much farther from his past, Butler-less life than Towns’.

Just a year ago, Wiggins was getting a full possession more per-game in post-up situations than he is today. Now, he’s spending far too much time floating on the perimeter as a non-threatening 3-point shooter. Wiggins is most effective in the deep post and as a cutter (Wiggins scores a whopping 1.56 PPP as a cutter — the same number as Anthony Davis), but instead is being miscast in a Jimmy Butler-esque role as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and spot-up shooter.

While the uptick in 3-point attempts is welcome, his struggles should demand that this new facet to his game should be mitigated by a couple of more sets that find him deep on the low block, or slashing into the paint as a cutter for Butler or Teague. Both of these play-sets would mean a) more attempts in the paint, where Wiggins can use his athleticism to score over the defense, and b) a steady diet of trips to the free throw line.

Let’s keep an eye on exactly how Tom Thibodeau utilizes Wiggins in Butler’s absence over the next few weeks. Will it simply be more of the high-usage, inefficient Wiggins of the first three years of his career? Or will having played alongside Butler for the first two-thirds of this season be the catalyst for change in Wiggins’ all-around game?

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If Saturday night’s win over the Bulls is any indication, we’ll see a more involved Jeff Teague while Wiggins and Towns take turns taking over the Wolves offense. Let’s just hope it includes more deep post-ups for Wiggins and more off-ball cutting, and not simply Wiggins sliding into the role that Jimmy Butler has played when it comes to initiating the offense during the first half of the season.