Checking on the Timberwolves’ progress since the All-Star break

The Timberwolves have largely played flat since the All-Star break, and, more specifically, since the injury to Jimmy Butler. Let’s see where they stand with eight games remaining in the regular season.

Although the Wolves are still firmly in the playoff picture, they certainly have not made the hunt easy for themselves.

Since the All-Star game and Jimmy Butler’s injury that followed immediately afterwards, the team has gone 6-7. The .462 winning percentage tagged with that mark ranks 19th in the league in that span.

The most common thought behind this has been the idea that Jimmy Butler’s  absence is the cause for the sluggish play. It makes sense, of course, and it remains hard to argue that his absence doesn’t have an impact on how the team plays. But to say that his absence is the only reason the Wolves have played under .500 since the All-Star break would not be true.

The rest of the team needs to step up and play with a sense of urgency at this point, plain and simple. The team has gone from third-place in the West down to seventh in the span of a month.

First, let’s take a look at what’s gone right in recent weeks.

There was, however, one major milestone the team reached during the past month or so: the Wolves clinched their first winning season since the Kevin Garnett days over a decade ago.

Regardless of the recent struggles, the biggest issue for the Wolves over this span has certainly not been related to scoring. The team has scored 111 points per game, good enough for 12th in the league since the break. They are still shooting it efficiently from the field (47.7 percent) and not terribly from 3-point range (37.3 percent).

Also, the team has shot well from the free throw line at 81.1 percent, good enough for fifth in the league at the stripe. They have also continued to limit their turnovers, which is something they’ve excelled at all season long.

In fact, their 110.9 offensive rating is seventh in the league over the past 13 games. On the season, they rank fourth in the league.

Clearly, defense has been the main issue for the Wolves recently, just as it has been all season. The team has allowed 112.2 points per game on average over the past 13 games. They have been out-rebounded numerous times and they have not done one of the things that they did well earlier in the season: force turnovers. (This, of course, can be traced at least in part to the absence of Butler.)

Over the past 13 games, the Wolves rank just 29th in the league forcing 6.5 steals per game. Their average on the season has been 8.3 steals per game which is sixth in the NBA. Their ability to force turnovers has been their spark on defense, and without that skill at their disposal, the defense is otherwise easily exposed.

It was only two weeks ago that the Wolves defeated the Warriors. Check out just how good this defense can be:

As for the team’s recent defensive rating, their rating of 111.6 ranks 25th in the league since the All-Star break. A key reason for their low rating has been the team’s inability to rebound, which has led to second-chance points.

In fact, over the past 13 games the Wolves are 28th in the league allowing 14.8 second chance points per game. With their best defender out it is vital for the Wolves to limit their opponents possessions to prevent allowing, in this case, 15 extra points per game.

Now, not everything has been bad for the Wolves since the All-Star break. Sure, their record shows that they have not been at their best. However, there are two important things to consider. One, Butler’s absence has opened the door for more players to gain some meaningful playing time. Secondly, the team has had some meaningful wins during the stretch.

As for the players, Karl-Anthony Towns has most noticeably been the leader on the court in terms of his play. He is the team’s leading scorer over the past 13 games averaging 23.7 points per game. With that he has been the team’s best 3-point shooter and one of the more efficient scorers from the field.

Not to mention that KAT has continued to be a double-double machine, notching his 60th of the season against the New York Knicks.

Andrew Wiggins has also stepped up in Butler’s absence, averaging 20.6 points per game since the All-Star Game and 18.1 prior. He also has shot a better percentage from the field (46.8 percent to 44.4 percent) and from three (41.1 percent to 33.2 percent). Not to mention how he has also been just as much of a factor attacking the rim as he has been shooting.

More importantly, he has shot better from the free throw line over the past 13 games. Prior to the All-Star break he was connecting on just 64.6 percent of his free throws. Over the past 13 games, Wiggins has cashed in on 69.5 percent.

Better yet, his defensive play has been much better with his increase of effort. His numbers may not show it but Wiggins has been coming alive more often on defense.

However, the real story has been the play of Nemanja Bjelica.

Prior to the All-Star break the 29-year-old Serbian was logging nearly 20 minutes per game. Since filling in for Butler in the starting lineup, Bjelica has averaged just over 34 minutes per game, giving him the opportunity to show his abilities.

He has averaged over 11 points per game for the Wolves since filling in as a starter compared to seven as a reserve. At the same time, he is shooting just as well from all over the court then he was coming off the bench.

Bjelica is also the second leading rebounder on the team since the All-Star break, averaging 7.3 per game. He also has the best defensive rating on the team over the past 13 games at 107.9.

The bench, however, hasn’t changed much except for a slight change in the rotation…

Now, the Wolves bench still doesn’t get looked to very often; nothing has changed on that front.

Over the past 13 games, the bench ranks 29th in minutes at just 13.7 per game. However, as a whole, the bench hasn’t performed well over the past 13 games. They rank over 20th in the league in points per game, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. However, they attempt the least amount of shots and the third-least amount of threes per game.

Jamal Crawford has been the go-to guy off the bench, just like he has been all season, and the more run he gets the more productive he seems to beHowever, his efficiency hasn’t been so great on either end of the floor.

Although, that’s not to say he can’t be a spark at any given time. All season he has come up with some crazy, big time shots that are simply jaw dropping. That has not changed for the ageless Crawford.

https://twitter.com/RealSportsTaIk/status/977693449406251008

Let’s not forget about Derrick Rose, who joined the team shortly after the All-Star break. This brought mixed emotions from fans and media, however, he is another veteran to help guide the younger, inexperienced Wolves. (Currently, he’s nursing a sprained ankle.)

Prior to his ankle injury, Rose had been playing fairly well in what is an extremely small sample size.

Tyus Jones has continued to be a comfortable plug-in off the bench for Tom Thibodeau.He’s shooting a better percentage from the field over the past 13 games compared to his overall numbers (51.1 percent to 46.7 percent). However, his 3-point shooting has taken a hit. Overall, he is shooting 34.6 percent from three on the season. If it weren’t for his 29.4 percent shooting from beyond the arc over the past 13 games that mark would be higher.

Unfortunately his defense has taken a turn for the worse. Overall Jones has the second-best defensive rating on the team with a score of 105.8. That mark is just 0.5 better than that of Butler’s. Over the past 13 games, however, Jones has a 115.1 defensive rating — just 10th on the team.

Just like Crawford, that’s not to say he isn’t playing a vital role off the bench. Jones still has a natural nose for the ball and has been a fairly consistent spot up shooter.

He has just been inconsistent as of late in terms of defense.

Sticking to defense, the whole team has declined in defensive rating over the past 13 games, and some more than others. (Of course, with the exception of Bjelica, who is the only one who improved. Take a look for yourselves.)

Let’s take a look into the team’s hustle stats over the past 13 games.

Bjelica and Jeff Teague have done a nice job getting their hands on passes. Each have averaged 2.3 deflections per game since the All-Star break. Prior to that, Teague was averaging 2.6, so not much of a difference, and Bjelica averaged 1.3 in his limited role. Their 2.3 deflections per game matches that of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Taj Gibson and Wiggins check in next, both getting their hands on the ball 1.5 times per game. This goes along with Wiggins’ increased effort on the defensive end.

As for getting after loose balls, Butler has been the team leader all season averaging two loose ball recoveries per game. With Butler out, Towns is the only player on the team averaging over one per game over the past 13 contests. Just like rebounding, the 50/50 balls are vital for the Wolves to get on. This too has the chance to limit the opportunities of their opponents.

As for contesting 2-point shots recently, Towns is closing out on 11.5 shots per game, up from his season average of 11.1 per game. However, he occasionally fails to keep his hands up on the catch, which usually leads to being too little too late on close outs.

Other players who are contesting more 2-point shots over the past 13 games are Gibson, Bjelica, Gorgui Dieng, Wiggins and Teague. Even though their opponents are connecting on 47.1 percent of their shots from the field, the hustle is there.

As for contesting 3-point shots, Bjelica has been a pain for opposing shooters. He closes out on 5.1 per game, which leads the team. Wiggins and Gibson are also doing a fine job closing out on 3-point shots, as have Teague and Towns. This time the team’s hustle reflects on their opponents three-point percentage over the past 13 games. They have held their opponents to shooting 34.2 percent from three since the All-Star break, which is ninth in the league.

With just eight games to play the Wolves are looking at what is perhaps their most important stretch of the season. As of now the Wolves hold the seventh spot in the west. They hold a half-game advantage over the eighth placed Utah Jazz, 1.5 games over the ninth-placed Denver Nuggets and three games over the No. 10 Los Angeles Clippers.

At the same time, the Wolves trail No. 3 Portland by just three games. The Wolves need to take advantage of their remaining schedule as each team has a worse record than them. Consider their next three games:

• March 26 vs. Memphis (19-54, 1-16 since All-Star break)
• March 28 vs. Atlanta (21-52, 3-11 since All-Star break)
• March 30 at Dallas (22-51, 4-11 since All-Star break)

After that, three of their last five games come against teams who will be playing with a purpose.

• April 1 vs. Utah (41-32, 11-4 since All-Star break)
• April 5 at Denver (40-33, 8-7 since All-Star break)
• April 6 at Los Angeles Lakers (32-40, 9-6 since All-Star break)
• April 9 vs. Memphis (19-54, 1-16 since All-Star break)
• April 11 vs. Denver (40-33, 8-7 since All-Star break)

Minus the Grizzlies and Lakers, the Jazz and Nuggets will be fighting for a playoff berth just like the Wolves. However, the Lakers will be no push-over as they have shown to be a dangerous team that has been playing well of late. It is also important to note that five of the Wolves last eight games will be played at the Target Center.

Next: Timberwolves Power Rankings: A winning record in sight

It should be a crazy final two weeks for the Wolves in the wild Western Conference.