Projecting the Timberwolves’ possible first-round matchups

With the NBA playoffs quickly approaching, the Timberwolves may find themselves in any one of these first round scenarios.

With four games remaining, the Timberwolves find themselves seventh in the tough Western Conference. As of right now they would play the banged-up Golden State Warriors in the first round of the playoffs.

Although that is how it stands right now the Wolves may not know exactly who they play until the regular season is over.

To put it in perspective, the Wolves are 1.5 games out of fourth-place and 1.5 games ahead of ninth-place. And what that means is that the Wolves have just as great of a chance of receiving home-court in the first round than they do not making the playoffs at all.

On that note, its must-win time for the Wolves. The obvious goal, if possible, is to avoid the Rockets or the Warriors in the first round. However, seeing how the Wolves have not been to the playoffs in over a decade and are not yet guaranteed a spot this season should mean the team and fans should be happy to just get in at this point — especially given their recent swoon.

Before getting into each possible matchup there a few notes to point out. The first is most obvious; the one and two seeds are out of the question. As for the three seed, which is currently held by the Portland Trail Blazers, well, they seem to have it on lock-down. They have a three game lead over fourth-place and show no signs of slowing down.

That leaves Nos. 4 through 8 wide-open for the Wolves to grab. The worst-case scenario is, again, not qualifying for the playoffs at all.

However, for the purpose of the article we’ll start with the Wolves worst scenario in terms of seeding, which is eighth.

(8) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (1) Houston Rockets

This, by far, would be the worst possible matchup for the Wolves.

As good as it would feel to see them play meaningful basketball, fans would be lying if they said they don’t care if the Wolves make a run. The Wolves have a team capable of making a run when healthy and the Rockets would make a run less likely.

For starters, the Rockets completed the series sweep on the Wolves by winning all four games. Their average margin of victory in their four wins against the Wolves was a whopping 15.8 points.

The Wolves offense has held their own against the Rockets. They have averaged 107 points on 47.2 percent shooting from the field. Their 36.6 percent 3-point shooting against the Rockets is nothing great, however it is nothing dismal either.

Although the offense has held their own, the defense can’t say the same. They have given up an average of 122.8 points per game and have let the Rockets shoot 50 percent from the floor and 43.4 percent from three.

To make matters worse, the Wolves have played poorly as of late, and mainly as a result of their defense. As for the Rockets, their defense has been stellar over the past 25 games.

Clearly, defense would be the main focus for the Wolves heading into this possible series. They need to hold the Rockets to less than 50 percent shooting from the field — that is most crucial. The Rockets will drain their threes like they always do however, it is about limiting their opportunities while contesting each shot.

At the same time, the Wolves can keep the series close by doing what they did well during the season series.

They shared similar numbers with the Rockets in rebounds, steals and free throw shooting during the season series. If they can win those areas and play defense with a sense of urgency the Wolves can make this series more competitive.

(7) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (2) Golden State Warriors

If the season ended today, this would be the Wolves first round matchup.

Unlike against the Rockets, the Wolves have proven they can beat the Warriors. Add that to Stephen Curry‘s injury that will almost certainly keep him out until at least the second round of the playoffs, and this series would be much closer than some might think.

Although the Warriors own the season series by a 2-1 margin, the Wolves have shown improvement in each game.

Their first game against the Warriors resulted in a 24-point loss. In their next game, the Wolves came a little closer losing by 13. Finally, the Wolves defeated the Warriors by six earlier in March in a game in which Karl-Anthony Towns dominated.

The issue the Wolves have faced while playing the Warriors has been, you guessed it, defense.

The Warriors have put up 118 points per game on average against the Wolves this season. With that, they have shot 50.2 percent from the field and 42.2 percent from three in their three games against the Wolves.

The Wolves biggest flaw against the Warriors on offense has been 3-point shooting. In their three games against the Warriors the Wolves have shot just 26.6 percent from three.

What the Wolves have done well this season against the Warriors has been their ability to force turnovers. The Warriors have committed 16 turnovers per game against the Wolves to their 11.3. If the Warriors are in fact the Wolves first round opponent, the Wolves must continue to limit their possessions via turnovers.

Plus, with Curry battling recurring ankle injuries and Kevin Durant/Klay Thompson not 100 percent, the Warriors will be on upset alert.

Also, in case you haven’t heard, Jimmy Butler should be good to go for the playoffs. This would without a doubt light a spark in the Wolves locker room.

Even Max Kellerman feels the Wolves could get the job done against the Warriors.

Still, it’s the Warriors, so … let’s take a look at the next one.

(6) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (3) Portland Trail Blazers

This series would be intriguing, to say the least.

The teams split the season series at two games apiece. To break it down even more, the Wolves took the first two games at the Target Center and the Blazers have taken the last two games at the Moda Center in Portland. Home court will play a large role in this possible series.

Besides that, both teams have averaged 110.3 points per game against one another. Both teams are close to even in terms of field goal percentage when facing each other; the Wolves have shot 49.4 percent from the field while the Blazers have shot 49.3 percent.

The key difference has been 3-point shooting. The Wolves have been held to 32.4 percent 3-point shooting on 18.5 attempts per game against the Blazers this season. On the other hand, the Blazers have cashed in on 42.7 percent of their threes on 27.5 attempts per game against the Wolves this season.

Both teams have possessed the ball well against one another this season. Whoever wins the turnover battle may also ultimately win the series.

The biggest difference for the Wolves will be the return of Butler. He has played very well against the Blazers this season and his defense on Damian Lillard or C.J. McCollum may make all the difference.

From there, it comes down to however the rest of the team plays defense for at least four games. Just as against any team, defense will be the deciding factor that determines how far the Wolves can go.

(4/5) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (4/5) Oklahoma City Thunder

This is yet another intriguing possible first-round matchup for the Wolves. Two division opponents. One team playing well as of late. The other, not so much.

Although the Wolves won the season series 3-1, the Thunder have the hot hand, plus star players with playoff experience. When it comes to the Wolves, Butler is their lone star player with playoff experience.

More importantly, these teams have not faced each other since Jan. 10. Clearly, both teams have formed new identities since then.

Looking at some of the numbers from the four games these two teams played against one another, each of the first three games were decided by four points or less. Let’s not also forget that the Wolves stole the first game at the hands of Andrew Wiggins’ buzzer beater.

The Wolves have put up an average of 111.3 points on the Thunder during the season series. They have also held the Thunder to 107 points per game on average. What’s important to note is how the Wolves have held the Thunder to just 30 percent shooting from three.

Granted, the Thunder don’t own the greatest team 3-point percentage. However, it still isn’t easy to hold a team with three superstars to a dismal 30 percent 3-point percentage.

Continuing with per-game averages, both teams have turned the ball over a lot to one another over the four meetings. The Wolves, on average, commit 16.8 turnovers per game against the Thunder while Oklahoma City averages 15.8.

With both teams neck-and-neck in that category, possessing the ball would become much more vital in this hypothetical first round matchup.

(4/5) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (4/5) San Antonio Spurs

The old against the new. That is what you can expect if the up-and-coming Wolves and old-school Spurs square off in round one.

While most fans would expect the Spurs to be an instant series win for the Wolves, in large part to the Spurs “down year” label, don’t get caught up in that idea.

For starters, the Spurs still won the season series against the Wolves, 2-1. One win came on opening night while the second win came in mid-March, a game in which Towns was dominated by LaMarcus Aldridge.

On average, all three games have been low-scoring. The Wolves have put up 99.3 points per game in three games against the Spurs this season, while the Spurs have scored 103.3 points per game in three meetings against the Wolves.

Both teams have shot the ball from the field just about the same and both teams have turned the ball over and stolen the ball just about the same amount of times per game also.

The biggest difference when facing the Spurs for the Wolves has been three-point shooting and free-throw shooting.

First, the good. The Wolves have shot on average 8-for-16.3 (49 percent) from three in games against the Spurs. On that note, they have held the Spurs to 7-for-23.7 (29.6 percent) shooting from three.

The bad for the Wolves has been shooting from the free throw line against the Spurs. On average, the Wolves are 14.7-of-19.7 (74.6 percent) from the against the Spurs, while San Antonio has capitalized from the line, hitting 14.3-of-16 (89.6 percent) of their foul shots against the Wolves. A bit out of character for Minnesota, to be sure.

Besides, it’s the Spurs in the playoffs, a place in which they are accustomed to being. The Wolves would need to make sure they don’t overlook the Spurs in any area, 3-point shooting, if they face them in round one.

(4/5) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (4/5) New Orleans Pelicans

This would be the ideal first-round matchup for the Wolves for many reasons — one of which being the Wolves won’t have to worry about DeMarcus Cousins in addition to Anthony Davis.

It goes beyond the 4-0 season sweep that the Wolves own over the Pelicans; they have dominated most aspects of each game every time.

The Wolves have averaged 114.5 points per game in the four meetings against the Pelicans. They have held New Orleans to 101.3 points per game over four games, and have held the Pelicans to a 43.2 shooting percentage from the field and a 28.1 3-point percentage.

The Wolves themselves have averaged 51.6 percent shooting from the field and 40.5 percent shooting from three in their four games against the Pelicans.

But it doesn’t stop there. The Wolves have out rebounded the Davis-led Pelicans by an average of 8.2 per game (47-38.8).

Both teams have averaged the same amount of turnovers per game (16.3) but the Wolves have averaged more steals per game (10.5 to 8.8).

For once, home court may not dictate the Wolves destiny against the Pelicans. Unlike against most teams, the Wolves proved they can beat the Pelicans at home and on the road.

If there is one team to hope for in round one, keep hoping for the Pelicans.

(4/5) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (4/5) Utah Jazz

This possible series may be the most far-fetched. However, with the current state of the Western Conference anything is possible.

If we’re dictating this series based on Sunday night’s game when the two teams met, then the Wolves are in trouble. However, this series can not and will not be dictated on that one game — especially seeing as how the Wolves were down both Butler and Jeff Teague.

Such as the case was for the Wolves against the Thunder or Blazers, this series would also feature two division opponents. While the season series was split 2-2, the Jazz have played like a much better team recently.

That should be the concern for the Wolves. Sometimes all the numbers have to be thrown away because a team is playing brand new, such as the Jazz currently are. They have ridden a hot streak as of late to put themselves in playoff contention and currently hold sixth place in the west.

The Wolves, however, have done a better job than the Jazz have in terms of not turning the ball over and forcing steals. With that, they have also shot better from three than the Jazz have over their four game season series.

However, the Jazz have scored more, shot better from the field and have rebounded better than the Wolves. Their 121-97 win over the Wolves on Sunday can be credited to these areas as well.

This is a series in which home court may come into play. It’s no secret that the Wolves are a better team at home. Knowing that, they need as many possible home games in a series against the Jazz who have played them tough all season long.

In less than two weeks the Wolves will know who they play in the first round of the playoffs. Of course, there’s always a chance the wagons fall off and the Wolves miss the playoffs entirely.

Next: Tom Thibodeau's minutes problem...

On that note: these final four games for the Wolves will be their most important four games of the season. It may seem obvious, but we’ll learn a lot about matchups and seeding during this stretch, too.