Timberwolves gameplan must change for Game 2 against Rockets

Despite a one-possession loss in Game 1 of their first round series against Houston on Sunday, the Timberwolves may still want to significantly adjust their offensive gameplan against the Rockets for Game 2.

The Houston Rockets finished the regular season with a league-best 65-17 record, including four blowout wins over the Timberwolves.

They had the league’s top offensive rating, as well as the No. 6 defensive rating in the NBA. James Harden is practically a shoe-in for the Most Valuable Player award, and Chris Paul remains one of the league’s best point guards when healthy.

But Minnesota led Game 1 with only a few minutes remaining, and after Houston built what was seemingly a safe lead with about 90 seconds left, the Wolves still pulled to within a single possession with 8.7 seconds showing on the clock.

Houston shot just 10-of-37 (27 percent) from beyond the arc — players not named James Harden shot just 3-of-25 (12 percent) from long distance — and scored only 107 points after averaging 112.4 per game in the regular season and a whopping 122.8 per contest across four regular season matchups.

But the Wolves’ offense faltered, with zero players managing to score more than 18 points and All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns combining to put up only 21 points on 7-of-20 shooting from the floor.

On Monday, we took a look at the scheme and some areas in which the Wolves likely left points on the floor. Many of the issues centered around the lack of touches for Towns, of course, and it’s fair to wonder what the course correction will look like on Wednesday night.

Indeed, Towns held the second-lowest usage rate of the nine Wolves that took a shot in Game 1 (somehow, Tyus Jones attempted zero field goals in seven minutes of playing time); KAT’s usage was just 14.5 percent while Taj Gibson‘s came in at 12.1.

Let’s get this out of the way: it’s unacceptable to have one of the most efficient and dynamic players in the NBA only attempt nine shots in 40 minutes, and if that’s the gameplan, well … it’s an exceedingly poor gameplan.

And that’s what Towns (graciously) stuck to when asked about his lack of shots.

Tom Thibodeau talked about Jeff Teague‘s speed advantage when guarded by big men on switches. He’s not wrong — Teague was effective and nearly single-handedly kept the Wolves in the game in the closing minutes.

Of course, Teague astutely noted that by allowing Towns to be held to single-digit shot attempts, the Wolves were “playing into [the Rockets] hands”.

So, what will the gameplan look like in Game 2? It will certainly include more Towns. Check out what happened the last two times KAT was held to under 10 points in a game, from the above-linked summary of the Wolves’ Game 1 offensive attack:

"Expect Towns to bounce-back, however. The only other two times that he scored in single-digits this season? Following a two-point outing in New Orleans back on Nov. 1, Towns dropped 31 points on 18 shots against Dallas, tallying 12 rebounds in the process. Then, after scoring just seven points at Memphis on Dec. 4, Towns put up 21 points on 14 shots and grabbed 12 rebounds against the Clippers.Also, the two games before his 56-point outburst against Atlanta just two weeks ago saw Towns score 15 points in each contest, shooting a combined 8-for-28 (28.6 percent) from the floor."

It’s reasonable to expect the Wolves to force the ball into the post; on the rare occasions that Towns received an entry pass and was double-teamed, KAT made the correct decisions when it came to passing the ball out to the perimeter, and we’ve seen him find cutters at opportune times throughout the season.

Don’t expect the Rockets to change course. It’s typical for them to switch on nearly every pick-and-roll, and while it’s true that the Wolves should have dynamic ball-handlers in Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins, and Jimmy Butler to take advantage of the switches, you can bet that the Rockets are well aware of the numbers.

What numbers, you say? There were 105 NBA players who played in at least 58 games (the minimum requirement to qualify for the scoring title) and used at least 10 percent of their possessions as ball-handlers in the pick-and-roll. Jimmy Butler led the Wolves at 0.91 points per possession (PPP), which tied at No. 12 in the NBA. (Ironically, James Harden averaged the exact same 0.91 PPP.)

Somewhat surprisingly, due to the high frequency of contested two-point jumpers and his decline in getting to the rim and drawing fouls, Jamal Crawford was next on the list for the Wolves, landing in a tie at No. 13, scoring 0.9 PPP. Tyus Jones also averaged 0.9 PPP in pick-and-roll situations.

Jeff Teague was all the way down in a tie at No. 20 at just 0.82 PPP, and Andrew Wiggins was tied at No. 23 at 0.8 PPP.

How did the Wolves score in the post, you might ask? Well, Taj Gibson actually led the league in points per possession in the post among players that had more than 10 percent of their touches there, scoring 1.12 PPP. Towns was sixth at 1.02 PPP, and came in 10th in the league in frequency of possessions in the post at 22.5 percent.

(Context matters, of course: Gibson was likely never double-teamed while Towns frequently deals with such schemes, and so on. But it doesn’t change the fact that the Wolves are an effective post-scoring team.)

In other words, the Timberwolves would be much better off throwing the ball into the post and playing inside-out. Old school? Surely. Shaquille O’Neal and Charles Barkley would be so proud. (Unless that would mean the Wolves would play too slow…they wouldn’t like that, either…)

The Wolves are best served using athletes like Andrew Wiggins as cutters and having Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Jamal Crawford, Nemanja Bjelica, and others spot-up around the arc. Derrick Rose and Jeff Teague-led pick-and-rolls are probably not the move. That is, at least not the majority of the time.

Pick-and-roll sets against the Rockets weren’t as effective as they needed to be throughout Game 1, and if there’s another 48 minutes of Towns floating to the corner or standing in the post guarded by Trevor Ariza or Chris Paul and not getting the ball, the collective heads of MInnesota basketball fans everywhere will explode.

Next: Towns and Rose: The good, the bad, and the decent

Wolves fans must hope, albeit against all odds, that the gameplan will be altered for Game 2 and beyond.