Welcome to a handy guide of upcoming Timberwolves free agents and what their respective contract situations are. Let’s dig in…
This year has been one of undeniable success for the Minnesota Timberwolves, as we’ve seen a winning season for the first time in thirteen years and the playoffs for the first time in fourteen years.
Yet, despite the triumph of this past season and our desire to revel in it, the NBA is a year-long sport, and with over half the roster becoming a free agent or extension-eligible this offseason, there will be no rest among Timberwolves fans. This offseason will be the most important for this franchise in over a decade, and getting it right begins with re-signings.
Thus, without further ado, here is the Minnesota Timberwolves re-signing guide for the 2018 offseason.
Karl-Anthony Towns
This one is a no-brainer. Towns has shown undeniable progression over the past three years, and although he was third in shots on the team this season, he managed to convert his few opportunities at a ridiculously high rate of efficiency, putting him in the conversation as one of the game’s best players.
The only inhibitor preventing him from being unanimously considered as an elite NBA player is the fact that his defense has been below replacement-level over the course of his career. In the modern NBA, rim protection is an absolutely vital part of the game, and yet, to allot more than one man to this duty is a death sentence by way of perimeter shooting. Inefficient and sub-par defense was the downfall of the Timberwolves this year, and it is my only apprehension in giving Towns $30 million a year.
However, his adroitness on the offensive side of the ball more than compensates for his defensive insufficiencies. Give him the max, no question. My only note would be that it is preferable to re-sign him this summer to protect against the possibility of the cap jumping next summer, in which case we would have to pay him a larger sum.
Summary: Give him the max.
Tyus Jones
Luckily for Timberwolves fans, with the accretion of hype around backup point guards like Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, and Fred VanVleet, Tyus Jones is the high-efficiency, low-usage guard that has gotten lost in the shuffle.
Receiving only sparse praise from national media outlets, Jones will likely be signed to a contract inaccurately representing his true value. With both Smart and VanVleet hitting restricted free agency this summer and there likely to be a fierce bidding war for them, it wouldn’t be improbable for each of them to command a two to four-year deal with an average salary in the teens.
Additionally, Rozier is extension eligible with the Celtics this year, and should they not be able to come to terms, he will be a restricted free agent next summer. Should he continue the level of play he has recently played at, the capital a team decides to invest in him could truly be astronomical and redefine the backup point guard market.
This redefining of the market began last year, when Patty Mills, an above average backup entering the terminal stages of his prime, received a four-year, $50 million contract. It is not improbable to think that Rozier or Smart could procure an even greater sum.
For this reason, it is absolutely vital the Timberwolves sign Tyus Jones to a three or four-year extension this summer. Should he have another great year as he did this year, suitors of the aforementioned guards who have come out empty handed may allocate to him the funds they were ready to disburse, and it is exceedingly likely that the Timberwolves will be wholly unable to match.
If the Wolves can sign him anywhere in the $5-7 million range, that is a steal and great value.
Summary: Re-sign for two to four years for $5-7 million/per, but avoid bidding war
Jimmy Butler
Jimmy Butler is eligible for an extension this summer, and along with that possibility comes questions.
It is without question that Butler is the reason the playoff drought did not reach 14 years, and for this, I surrender to him my kidney. However, is Jimmy Butler, under the premise of the Timberwolves hellish salary cap situation, worthy of a max contract? If the Timberwolves offer him the max this offseason, it would kick in during his age-30 season, and he would receive an average salary of $37.6 million until his 35th birthday — the termination of the contract and a point when he will likely be far past his prime.
Should the Timberwolves offer him the max, I would expect him to take it, as no other team can come within $50 million of the total contract. Of course, all of this is considered along with the pretense that he has a player option for the 2019-20 season. But don’t bank on him opting in, as it would be ludicrous for him to opt into his player option for and leave a potential $18 million on the board.
Granted, Butler is a team player, and if he was willing to accept something like a 50 percent pay decrease, I would have to live without any kidneys. However, despite Butler being the team player that he is, it is exceedingly unlikely that he, or any player, would give up that much money for the benefit of a team that he was neither drafted by nor has any real connection to outside of his 60-year old head coach.
Therefore, if the Wolves offer him, as well as Towns, max contracts this offseason, that would tie more than $91 million between the likes of Wiggins, Towns, and Butler. This core, while one of the stronger ones in the NBA, would at its peak be capable of playing a competitive conference finals series, but with little funds to spend elsewhere to provide depth, this core alone is nowhere near strong enough to drive a team to championship contention.
Thus, it is with heartache, heartbreak, and disconsolateness that I recommend the Timberwolves let Jimmy Butler walk after this season if they are to have any shot at all for championship contention in the next handful of years.
Summary: Don’t re-sign after the 2018-19 season
Derrick Rose
Rose was arguably the Timberwolves best player in the playoffs, despite only two weeks of experience with the team before being thrust against the steamroller known as the Rockets.
Rose’s spectacular performance likely earned him at least another one-year, veteran’s minimum deal from some team, but that team should not be the Timberwolves. Gone unnoticed in Rose’s performance was the undermining of Tyus Jones, a player who has proved himself to be incredibly valuable to the Timberwolves over the course of the regular season.
In the playoffs, Rose averaged 23.8 minutes a game, a number justified by his level of play. Tyus’ play was rewarded with about 13 minutes of play per game, down from 17.9 during the regular season. Yet, this vast discrepancy is minutes played is not the most disconcerting number.
In the series against the Rockets, Rose had a usage rate of 26.1, by far the highest on the team, compared to Tyus’ meager rate of just 6.6. Of course, not all the blame for this discrepancy can be attributed to Rose, as he did outperform Tyus and Tyus seemed uneager to touch the ball for large portions of this series.
Yet, Rose should not have the highest usage on a playoff team, regardless of his level of play, and the simple fact of the matter is that he did take touches away from Tyus and our star players. The Timberwolves have to make a decision between keeping Rose or Tyus, and to me, the decision is easy. Keep Tyus.
Summary: Don’t re-sign
Nemanja Bjelica
Bjelica just had his best NBA season to this point, and he proved his value when Jimmy Butler went down, starting 21 games and playing very well according to both his statistics and the eye test.
I would expect Bjelica to get a Patrick Patterson-esque deal this offseason: a two to three-year deal in the range of $5-7 million. Bjelica wouldn’t start for many teams, and he surely wouldn’t start for any contenders, but Bjelica can fill the role of a consistent bench stretch-four, and I’d love to see him play in a D’Antoni or Kerr system.
I do think the Timberwolves should try to re-sign him if he gets a deal in the aforementioned range, but I don’t think it would be worth it to sign him if the money goes any higher.
Summary: Aim for re-signing in $5-7 million range
Marcus Georges-Hunt and Aaron Brooks
Let’s start with this: I grouped these two together because I don’t have much to say.
If the success of the Warriors, Celtics, and Raptors this past year has taught us anything, it is that benchwarmers are a thing of the past in the NBA. The time where a roster of 15 was comprised of two units and five very warm seats on the bench are behind us, and it’s time that the Timberwolves renovate their roster and rotation to follow the pattern of successful NBA teams: eliminate the scrubs.
Georges-Hunt showed some promise this season, but the fact remains that through 42 games, he maintained a PER of 6.9 and a defensive rating of 116, both far worse than team and NBA averages. He’ll be 24 next season, and to me it seems that he is better equipped for the Iowa Wolves.
As for Aaron Brooks, well, he is one of Thibs’ guys, and I cannot speak to what presence and effect he may or may not have on the locker room, but he rarely saw the court this season in effectual minutes. When he has, most notably in Teague’s absence, he played well, but if Thibs is unwilling to play him consistently I would much rather fill his spot with a young player who can develop.
Not re-signing these two can provide the Wolves with an extra $2.78 million in cap room — funds which they can allocate to other re-signings or use to sign a decent veteran.
Summary: Let them walk
Anthony Brown and Cole Aldrich
Cole Aldrich … no. Moving on.
Brown played on a two-way contract this year, and from what I can collect from his advanced metrics, he had a very good year. 0.571 win-shares per-48 minutes, a PER of 41.9, a true-shooting percentage of 150%, all on a usage just over 11.
I’m sorry, that was a stupid joke. Brown played just three minutes this year and took just one shot, a 3-pointer, which he made. Obviously, this sample size is ridiculously small and these statistics have no validity whatsoever. Having said that, Brown is a good 3-point shooter, as he shot 100 percent from three last season (I’ll stop), and on a Timberwolves team that ranked dead last in the NBA in both 3-pointers attempted and made.
The Timberwolves offense was quite congested for a large part of last season, and any additional outside threat would help clear that up. Not to mention, Brown is a wing, and on a Timberwolves team with two true wings, he could be a valuable addition.
I would sign him to a one-year, minimum deal.
Summary: Re-sign Brown for the minimum
Next: Unpacking the upcoming Timberwolves offseason
In summary, I would re-sign Towns, Jones, Bjelica, and Brown, and let Butler (after next season), Rose, Georges-Hunt, Brooks, and Aldrich (also after next season) walk away. But that’s me, not Tom Thibodeau…