The Minnesota Timberwolves have an Andrew Wiggins problem

The Minnesota Timberwolves were practically forced into inking Andrew Wiggins into a long-term, maximum contract extension last offseason. However, it seems likely that they’re already regretting it.

Former No. 1 overall draft picks who average north of 20 points per game over their first three NBA seasons get contract extensions. They just do.

So, when Andrew Wiggins and his 20.4 points per game were eligible for an extension in the summer of 2017, he landed the deal. Sure, there was some token haggling of sorts, if that’s what you want to call what owner Glen Taylor did, and Wiggins changed agents in the process, too. But it was always going to get done.

Take a look at the history of first-overall selections. Outside of colossal bust Anthony Bennett, the five No. 1 picks prior to Wiggins all received extensions with their original teams, and going back to the turn of the century, the only other players that didn’t receive rookie extensions were Greg Oden and Kwame Brown.

And by any traditional statistical measure, Wiggins deserved such an extension. He averaged north of 20 points per game from ages 19 to 21. he was one of only 22 players to average north of 20 per contest in 2015-16, and he was 16th in the league in per-game scoring in 2016-17. Again: 20-point-per-game scorers who have yet to turn 22 years old get extensions.

Personally, I’ve been extremely tough on Wiggins since his rookie season. There’s plenty of record of what I, of course, believe to be fair criticism here on Dunking With Wolves; here was my summary on the contract extension after it went down, just prior to the start of the 2017-18 season.

An excerpt:

"Yes, this extension is the right move to make. In today’s NBA, teams must pay for future projected performance. (That’s virtually always the case anyways, one could argue, but it’s especially true for players coming off of rookie contracts and signing their first extensions.) Very, very rarely are players stars when they’re first eligible for a contract extension — and yes, Karl-Anthony Towns is absolutely the extension to the rule.Andrew Wiggins is not a star. Will he be a star? Maybe. He has the physical tools. That’s the most important thing. He’s also produced from a scoring perspective, albeit inefficiently.But the other ‘most important thing’ is that he’s improved in each of his two seasons following his Rookie of the Year campaign back in 2014-15. Wiggins made a modest jump in his sophomore season and while 2016-17 looked fairly similar, the 3-point shot was much-improved. He’d shot 30.5 percent from long-range over his first two professional seasons, but shot a respectable 35.6 from beyond the arc last season, all while attempting a full shot more per-36 minutes than the prior year."

It would have taken an enormous amount of … chutzpah for Tom Thibodeau, Scott Layden, and Glen Taylor not  to have given the extension to Wiggins. And, as stated above, I would have done it, too. But I would have thought long and hard about it.

Over at Hoops Habit, Luke Askew asks whether the Wolves traded the wrong young wing player in the Jimmy Butler deal, and if Zach LaVine would be the better fit on the current roster.

"It’s important to note that deciding who is the better player for the Timberwolves is different than deciding who is the better player.Despite Wiggins’ struggles, he’s clearly the better all-around player at this points. I also believe he has more upside. However, I think LaVine would be a better fit for the Wolves at this point.What really makes LaVine feel like a better fit for the Wolves, is his ability to stretch the floor and his likely acceptance of a lesser role (being the sixth-man or at maximum, being okay with playing the third fiddle in the starting lineup).I can’t stress this enough: Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins cannot coexist on the same basketball court for the long haul…"

I agree wholeheartedly with Askew’s stance that better fit is more important than better player — especially when the Timberwolves are already built around two current All-Stars in Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns. I would disagree, however, with the idea that Wiggins is “clearly” a better all-around player.

While LaVine was awful as a rookie and not much better in his second season, his third year as a pro was better than any single season that Wiggins has had up until his ACL injury.

Put it this way: LaVine is far better at one tangible skill — 3-point shooting — than Wiggins is at any single thing. And on a team that already has a pair of stars, that’s more important than Wiggins’ apparent upside. (And don’t forget that LaVine is still just 23 years old himself!)

Of course, now that the extension is about to kick in, the Timberwolves either have to live with it or find a taker on the trade market. There’s no telling if there would be much interest in Wiggins; there isn’t much precedent when it comes to trading a contract that massive with the ink barely dry.

But the Wolves cap situation became complicated quickly, with Towns now eligible for an extension and Butler scheduled to become a free agent next summer. If both KAT and Butler are to be extended at their full worth, Wiggins and Gorgui Dieng are the two players that would need to be on the trade block. (Wiggins would surely be easier to move, given his remaining upside compared to the value that Dieng brings to the table.)

This is a situation to monitor, as moving Wiggins prior to Butler’s free agency would be somewhat of a gamble, as well as a concession that the extension was a mistake.

Next: Solving the Timberwolves' depth issues

We’ll see if that’s something that Thibodeau and Co. is willing to admit, and if so, how frequently any potential trade rumors might trickle out into the media.